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7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

earthquake.usgs.gov

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Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#91

Post by margalabargala »

csomar wrote: post #68
cjensen wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not a prediction that can be evaluated. For example, I could say "there will be a 7+ magnitude quake somewhere in the Pacific Rim tomorrow" and if I publish the same prediction every day it won't be long until my prediction is true. I might even be right the very first time. A real prediction should include exact time period, magnitude, and geographic area. And every prediction made must be documented. This le…

He does have some predictions with time but yeah, being vague (while having lots of knowledge) can make you seem prophetic. > EDIT: Also... surprise! There was a foreshock a couple of hours before he made the prediction. He is probably more knowledgeable than the average person and has access to latest data on earthquakes.

> He is probably more knowledgeable than the average person and has access to latest data on earthquakes.

The person in question's area of "expertise" is claiming that when planets line up to form geometric shapes (e.g. when earth, uranus, and neptune form approximately an equilateral triangle) that this somehow affects seismic activity on our planet. The claim isn't that it's closeness of celestial objects causing this effect, mind you, it's the fact that the planets, however distant, happen to be in a configuration that resembles a geometric primitive.

It sets off a lot of my woo detectors. Here's their website: https://ssgeos.org/

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#92

Post by midoridensha »

pyuser583 wrote: post #51

Oh wow, that’s terrible. My spellchecker needs to be updated because it doesn’t want me writing “Turkiye.”

"Turkey" is the correct spelling in English. The Turkish government doesn't get to dictate what their country is called in other languages.

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#95

Post by vbezhenar »

gorkemcetin wrote: post #15

I have never seen an earthquake covering such a wide area. I confirm collapsing buildings in at least 5 cities. There is a big chaos on social media as well - many people asking for help since they are stuck under debris. What a disaster!

Why did the buildings collapse? They don't have a build code for seismic-dangerous zones? Or the possibility of this earthquake was never predicted?

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#96

Post by csomar »

jacquesm wrote: post #80
csomar wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. He'd have had more respect (and less suspicion) if he's tweet was something like: foreshake detected at xx,yy location, given the nature of the location, high probability of an earthquake of 7.5M. He's fishing for attention from the general public.

Agreed, but it is specific enough to at least see if he can do it again, once = random, twice = coincidence but the chances of doing this twice are pretty remote.

What's exactly specific? I'm not an expert in Geology but my understanding is that these hot spots are largely known. The outlier prediction will be for a location of an earthquake outside these hot spots. Here is a random map I found on the internet but I think matches a few ones I've seen before: https://broadview.sacredsf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Ma...

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#97

Post by csomar »

margalabargala wrote: post #91
csomar wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He does have some predictions with time but yeah, being vague (while having lots of knowledge) can make you seem prophetic. > EDIT: Also... surprise! There was a foreshock a couple of hours before he made the prediction. He is probably more knowledgeable than the average person and has access to latest data on earthquakes.

> He is probably more knowledgeable than the average person and has access to latest data on earthquakes. The person in question's area of "expertise" is claiming that when planets line up to form geometric shapes (e.g. when earth, uranus, and neptune form approximately an equilateral triangle) that this somehow affects seismic activity on our planet. The claim isn't that it's closeness of celestial objects causing t…

Two ways to verify this:

- Enough data that the correlation becomes strong enough.

- The physics community chimes in? I mean the effect could only be due to gravity unless there is another mechanism we don't understand. But given how small the earth is, and how big other planets are, I'd suspect the physics people to see this effect somewhere else?

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#98

Post by defrost »

csomar wrote: post #96
jacquesm wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, but it is specific enough to at least see if he can do it again, once = random, twice = coincidence but the chances of doing this twice are pretty remote.

What's exactly specific? I'm not an expert in Geology but my understanding is that these hot spots are largely known. The outlier prediction will be for a location of an earthquake outside these hot spots. Here is a random map I found on the internet but I think matches a few ones I've seen before: https://broadview.sacredsf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Ma...

For a much better idea of frequency, intensity, depth, and hot zones ..

Animated map: All earthquakes, 15 years, Jan 1, 2001 - Dec 31, 2015

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ed0tGlfJHiY

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#99

Post by _hypx »

jacquesm wrote: post #85
in_cahoots wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my experience initial reports being low doesn’t necessarily translate into final casualty accounts. When the entire infrastructure is destroyed (see Haiti, the 2004 Christmas tsunami) counting the number of dead is much harder and isn’t the top priority. On the flip side, I’ve often found that ‘missing person’ reports can overcount the number of casualties. Again, when infrastructure is destroyed or when there’s a…

I just looked at some of the photographs, the imagery is absolutely devastating. I can't imagine < 1000's of dead.

Hundreds of buildings have collapsed. Even a few thousand will be the best possible news.

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#100

Post by jamiek88 »

csomar wrote: post #97
margalabargala wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He is probably more knowledgeable than the average person and has access to latest data on earthquakes. The person in question's area of "expertise" is claiming that when planets line up to form geometric shapes (e.g. when earth, uranus, and neptune form approximately an equilateral triangle) that this somehow affects seismic activity on our planet. The claim isn't that it's closeness of celestial objects causing t…

Two ways to verify this: - Enough data that the correlation becomes strong enough. - The physics community chimes in? I mean the effect could only be due to gravity unless there is another mechanism we don't understand. But given how small the earth is, and how big other planets are, I'd suspect the physics people to see this effect somewhere else?

No, absolutely not - gravity is an inverse distance squared force.

The sun dominates our gravity environment and planets at those distances have negligible effects (really effectively zero) certainly not seismic size perturbations!

The gravitational force from the other planets does slightly affect the Earth's orbit, but the gravitational pull from the other planets and the Moon is still very small. The gravitational pull of the Moon on the Earth is only 0.55% of the gravitational force between the Sun and the Earth, other planets even less than that. Unlikely, very unlikely to trigger earthquakes!

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