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Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#91

Post by ETH_start »

7e wrote: post #81
woodruffw wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My (outsider's) understanding is that the "longtermist" sub-school of EA has grown over the years, and has developed increasingly convoluted and speculative rationales for behavior that would otherwise be considered unethical. The example I'm most familiar with is calculating utils in terms of the expected total human population of the galaxy, were we to achieve interstellar travel: it's not inconceivable that orders…

This is called “the end justifies the means” and EA did not invent it, unfortunately.

That phrase refers to doing immoral acts and justifying it by the supposedly positive impact of that act in the long run. It does not refer to acting in the long term future's interest instead of the short term future's.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#92

Post by [deleted] »

woodruffw wrote: post #86
shuckles wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an incorrect understanding of history. Eliezer Yudkowsky more or less created the rationalist movement, out of which EA emerged, as a way of funding AI safety research. MIRI is older than EA.

My understanding is that EA mostly came from Peter Singer's ethics. The "rationalist" movement adopted a lot of the language and metaethical principles espoused by Singer, but Singer has not (to my knowledge) indicated particular interest in AI. The books I've read by him mostly focus on animal welfare and human welfare in developing nations (cf. "doing the most good").

[deleted]

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#93

Post by shuckles »

woodruffw wrote: post #86
shuckles wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an incorrect understanding of history. Eliezer Yudkowsky more or less created the rationalist movement, out of which EA emerged, as a way of funding AI safety research. MIRI is older than EA.

My understanding is that EA mostly came from Peter Singer's ethics. The "rationalist" movement adopted a lot of the language and metaethical principles espoused by Singer, but Singer has not (to my knowledge) indicated particular interest in AI. The books I've read by him mostly focus on animal welfare and human welfare in developing nations (cf. "doing the most good").

Peter Singer happened to write primary source material, but your comment is like saying the EAs came from Jeremy Bentham. EA the organization began with LessWrong which, again, was all along a play to generate funding for AI safety research.

Edit: The original version of the comment implies LessWrong is the single precursor to EA, which is wrong. But it is a relevant and influential one.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#94

Post by sanxiyn »

paxys wrote: post #65
sillysaurusx wrote: post #23

Does anyone know how Coinbase avoided this fate? I really thought it would be them to fall, but they proved everyone wrong. There’s some key difference between Coinbase and an exchange like FTX. Is it because FTX had a token, and then leveraged themselves using their own token? Binance has a token too. Are they in similar danger? It would be an interesting contrast to know why one exchange is safe vs another. Here’s…

Coinbase is a perfectly normal company. They take your money and exchange it for crypto (and vice versa), taking a cut in the process. There's no funny business with tokens or lending out customer deposits. They are also regulated as a public company by the SEC and Delaware courts. If they do go out of business it'll be due to good old fashioned operating losses.

Note that Coinbase does have lending business. The reason it's not visible in their balance sheet is because it's not popular.

https://www.coinbase.com/borrow

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#95

Post by inquirer39243 »

TedDoesntTalk wrote: post #37
arkis22 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been waiting for this for years.

You’ve been waiting years for people to suffer? Lookup “ schadenfreude”.

It's not that many of us long-time crypto users want people to suffer, it's the jaded "I told you so" moment.

Many of us have seen many "too big to fail" exchanges fall, have seen 2+ other "crypto bubbles" drop the price by 80%+.

When we told everyone "don't keep your money on an exchange" and "we've seen seen these 'too the moon' skyrocketing prices before - be prepared for the eventual crash" - they laughed and confidently said it was different this time, that we were just jealous, didn't understand defi/web3 etc.

I seriously do not enjoy seeing people suffer, I tried to warn people to prevent them from losing huge amounts of money. But when your warnings were laughed off - it's hard and there's some mixed emotions, and many of us are a bit jaded.

I do think crypto has a legitimate use, but this "buy crypto because you'll get rich" mentality just creates these detrimental hype cycles.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#96

Post by onphonenow »

jshen wrote: post #43
TedDoesntTalk wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’ve been waiting years for people to suffer? Lookup “ schadenfreude”.

Many of us have been warning people for years that this would be the outcome. We were ridiculed for it.

No kidding - get into x coin or y coin - it’s mostly pump and dump meme speculation with no dcf model worth anything

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#97

Post by ww520 »

The collapse of FTX will impact the whole crypto space negatively. Nothing is spared.

1. All the alt-coins in FTX/Alameda Reasearch holding will be liquidated. E.g. Solana has been down >40% already.

2. The value of the FTT tokens issued by FTX valued at billions has evaporated. The value of FTT were used to buy other coins, directly and indirectly inflated all of them, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. When the value of FTT evaporates, it can be thought of as billions have been sucked out of the crypto markets. The prices of all coins will drop, including BTC and ETH.

3. The cascading falling of the alt-coins. Some alt-coins will fail. Just now there's an incoming $1B+ Solana tokens being unlocked and will be released to flood the market. Other alt-coins will be impacted in a similar way. One can argue some of these coins are created out of the thin air just like FTT. Their value can simply vanish just like FTT.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#98

Post by Nursie »

sacrosancty wrote: post #79
jshen wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of us have been warning people for years that this would be the outcome. We were ridiculed for it.

Nobody was ridiculed for advising people to keep their coins in their own wallet. You were probably ridiculed for saying crypto is a ponzi. But Bitcoin's and Ethereum's prices are consistently higher now than they were 2 years ago. What's the bad outcome you've been warning about that actually happens?

> Bitcoin's and Ethereum's prices are consistently higher now than they were 2 years ago

Which is something that will be true until it's not. Bitcoin dropped around 25% in the last week (though is rebounding a bit this morning). It only needs to drop around 33% from the current price to break your 2 year thing. Anything is possible here (in any direction), because it's an insane market propped up by all sorts of shady bull****

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#99

Post by djbusby »

jboy55 wrote: post #64
adam_arthur wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, he apparently hoodwinked his customers by abusing and losing their deposits. I don't think people who made billions by scamming well meaning customers should be held in high regard. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in prison

Madoff was also a great patron and philanthropist. Al Capone was known to help Chicago's poor and hungry.

Selling crypto is less legit than black-market booze.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#100

Post by r12343a_19 »

woodruffw wrote: post #36

This is maybe tangential of me to say, but since this post is coming from an EA forum: I think the cozy relationship between EA and FTX has done immense damage to the public image and standing of the EA movement. I've never been an EA person (much less a utilitarian) but I can appreciate the meat and potatoes of applied ethics, especially when those ethics are applied consistently . The infusion of cryptocurrency fun…

> I think the cozy relationship between EA and FTX has done immense damage to the public image and standing of the EA movement.

And it couldn't happen to a nicer cult.

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