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Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

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Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#91

Post by foverzar »

hmm0101 wrote: post #77
foverzar wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not rejecting the news, I largely reject superficiality and attempts to interpret statistics outside of domain knowledge and analysis of calculation methodics (oh the poor souls tasked with rigorously counting something in Russia) > "Russia begins where asphalt roads ends" :) there are always some truth in jokes. There is also some joke in jokes :) St Peters may be bleak, but the culture of outside decorum really…

Sorry, I did not mean that Saint Petersburg is bleak (quite the opposite). I meant that the further away you go from these big cities, the worse everything looks. I don't quite understand what you mean by superficial attempts. If their stats say that 10-20% do not have indoor plumbing then that what do you think they mean? ( https://web.archive.org/web/20210630123627/http://www.gks.ru... ) Russia is huge... if you go…

> Sorry, I did not mean that Saint Petersburg is bleak (quite the opposite).

It is kinda bleak, though.

> I don't quite understand what you mean by superficial attempts. If their stats say that 10-20% do not have indoor plumbing then that what do you think they mean?

How do you think they get these stats? Go door to door checking pipes? Actually, there should be documentation on methodology, but typically it's some super-inderect metrics based on dirty datasets. Don't overestimate RosStat's precision or data quality, they really can't count shit.

> (https://web.archive.org/web/20210630123627/http://www.gks.ru...)

Which one of those columns did you interpret as "indoor plumbing"? Maybe I don't get what "indoor plumbing" is supposed to mean. It's just some in-house utility pipes for water, or heating, or waste, right?

> Russia is huge... if you go to a village that is far away from any larger city, you'll see a lot of stuff - even stranger than not having indoor plumbing. If you can, I suggest travel to non-touristy areas, far away from large cities and see it for yourself :) Then report back and prove us wrong ;)

You don't have to tell me. I am not a tourist, I live here. I have relatives in villages, whom I visit every so often.

So I'm reporting: a house without any kind of plumbing is like a super weird thing.

Its not like pipes were invented yesterday, every ancient house has them. They might not be connected to some centralized water/heating/sewer pipeline, but still.

I'm starting to get a feeling that it's just city people having weird image of rural life.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#92

Post by hbrn »

pydry wrote: post #70
yourapostasy wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He asked to join NATO (as equals) and rather than leaping on the opportunity NATO told him to join the back of the queue. It is a little more nuanced than that [1]. "Join the back of the queue" is an uncharitable way to express "treated equally to all potential partner nations". There is no queue to apply to NATO other than logistical limitations. Putin sought deferential treatment to affirm Russia's greatness and…

>Join the back of the queue" is an uncharitable way to express "treated equally to all potential partner nations" Member nations in NATO are not equal. Never have been never will be. In not so many words, it meant that Russia would have to join the transnational gang as a foot soldier (Estonia) rather than a capo (UK) let alone a boss (US). Were peace with Russia a primary goal we would have started negotiations rath…

> In not so many words, it meant that Russia would have to join the transnational gang as a foot soldier (Estonia) rather than a capo (UK) let alone a boss (US).

And what do you think makes US and UK above others? Here's a hint: US and UK are two highest NATO spenders.

What NATO expenses was Russia able to afford in the early 2000s?

Sounds like they wanted to be treated as a boss while chipping in as a foot soldier.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#93

Post by foverzar »

sidibe wrote: post #79
hmm0101 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I did not mean that Saint Petersburg is bleak (quite the opposite). I meant that the further away you go from these big cities, the worse everything looks. I don't quite understand what you mean by superficial attempts. If their stats say that 10-20% do not have indoor plumbing then that what do you think they mean? ( https://web.archive.org/web/20210630123627/http://www.gks.ru... ) Russia is huge... if you go…

I just happened to watch this video from today https://youtu.be/dLCc60VDArM of a guy interviewing Russians in a village. Development of their village is not the topic but they are all carrying around or filling buckets of water or drunk, and no paved roads to be seen.

> and no paved roads to be seen.

It's like the first thing you see in this video.

Define "paved road", if a road with asphalt pavement (albeit old) is not a "paved road".

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#94

Post by lovich »

nonethewiser wrote: post #88
lovich wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those were separate incidents I don’t believe are connected

Ah I see... so you weren't really interested in why he picked this example.

I don’t see how me pointing out how the unrelated poster was describing two separate incidents would imply that. He butted in on a question only the OP could answer and it was only related via the same person being involved

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#95

Post by jpmoral »

wnoise wrote: post #43
peatmoss wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wedge issues have really split us irrationally. Group A tells scary bedtime stories to their children using caricatures of an average Group B position as a way to maintain in-group discipline. What seems to be new now, is that Group B has taken to espousing Group A's caricature as a way of proving their group identity. "Group A says we eat babies. I eat more babies than anyone else, proving my Group B bonafides!" If…

Although FPTP is bad, it's not at all clear that IRV (the election method that most mean when they say the ballot-marking method of RCV) actually leads to less extremism. It's a chaos monkey in any race that approaches competitive, and changes that one might expect to help A (such as more A > B > C votes) can actually hurt A. That is, its bad results show up precisely when it might produce a different outcome than FP…

IIUC how it would've worked in Australia is:

First round:

Begic and Peltola garner the most first-place votes, Palin is eliminated.

Voters who ranked Palin first get their second choice promoted to first. Presumably that would be Begic for most voters.

Second round:

Begic first choice votes + Palin > Begic votes vs. Peltola votes

Looking at the data in the reddit vote breakdown thread it looks like Begic would've won with this method.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#96

Post by [deleted] »

jpmoral wrote: post #95
wnoise wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although FPTP is bad, it's not at all clear that IRV (the election method that most mean when they say the ballot-marking method of RCV) actually leads to less extremism. It's a chaos monkey in any race that approaches competitive, and changes that one might expect to help A (such as more A > B > C votes) can actually hurt A. That is, its bad results show up precisely when it might produce a different outcome than FP…

IIUC how it would've worked in Australia is: First round: Begic and Peltola garner the most first-place votes, Palin is eliminated. Voters who ranked Palin first get their second choice promoted to first. Presumably that would be Begic for most voters. Second round: Begic first choice votes + Palin > Begic votes vs. Peltola votes Looking at the data in the reddit vote breakdown thread it looks like Begic would've won…

[deleted]

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#97

Post by wnoise »

jpmoral wrote: post #95
wnoise wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although FPTP is bad, it's not at all clear that IRV (the election method that most mean when they say the ballot-marking method of RCV) actually leads to less extremism. It's a chaos monkey in any race that approaches competitive, and changes that one might expect to help A (such as more A > B > C votes) can actually hurt A. That is, its bad results show up precisely when it might produce a different outcome than FP…

IIUC how it would've worked in Australia is: First round: Begic and Peltola garner the most first-place votes, Palin is eliminated. Voters who ranked Palin first get their second choice promoted to first. Presumably that would be Begic for most voters. Second round: Begic first choice votes + Palin > Begic votes vs. Peltola votes Looking at the data in the reddit vote breakdown thread it looks like Begic would've won…

I don't know if they're exactly following the Australian STV rules, but it is quite similar.

Begich had the fewest amount of _first_ place votes, so was eliminated first.

However, Begich was ranked ahead of Palin (and Pelota for that matter) on more ballots than vice-versa.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#98

Post by jpmoral »

wnoise wrote: post #97
jpmoral wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIUC how it would've worked in Australia is: First round: Begic and Peltola garner the most first-place votes, Palin is eliminated. Voters who ranked Palin first get their second choice promoted to first. Presumably that would be Begic for most voters. Second round: Begic first choice votes + Palin > Begic votes vs. Peltola votes Looking at the data in the reddit vote breakdown thread it looks like Begic would've won…

I don't know if they're exactly following the Australian STV rules, but it is quite similar. Begich had the fewest amount of _first_ place votes, so was eliminated first. However, Begich was ranked ahead of Palin (and Pelota for that matter) on more ballots than vice-versa.

> Begich had the fewest amount of _first_ place votes, so was eliminated first.

Ah, I misunderstood that part. Under Australian rules voters who ranked Begich first would have had their second choices promoted to first and added to the respective candidates. In this case ~27k for Palin and ~15.5k for Peltola. Then the totals are compared.

Looking at it that way it's not so clear cut that it was unfair that Peltola was declared the winner. I think reasonable arguments can be made either way.

One thing though is that on Australian ballots all candidates must be ranked.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#99

Post by wnoise »

jpmoral wrote: post #98
wnoise wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if they're exactly following the Australian STV rules, but it is quite similar. Begich had the fewest amount of _first_ place votes, so was eliminated first. However, Begich was ranked ahead of Palin (and Pelota for that matter) on more ballots than vice-versa.

> Begich had the fewest amount of _first_ place votes, so was eliminated first. Ah, I misunderstood that part. Under Australian rules voters who ranked Begich first would have had their second choices promoted to first and added to the respective candidates. In this case ~27k for Palin and ~15.5k for Peltola. Then the totals are compared. Looking at it that way it's not so clear cut that it was unfair that Peltola wa…

> Under Australian rules voters who ranked Begich first would have had their second choices promoted to first and added to the respective candidates. In this case ~27k for Palin and ~15.5k for Peltola. Then the totals are compared.

Exactly what happened. Palin was a spoiler -- had she not run, Begich would ha e won instead.

> One thing though is that on Australian ballots all candidates must be ranked.

That's kind of ridiculous. It's quite unwieldy and leads to many spoiled ballots. And I don't think forcing ordering past the point of caring really changes anything.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#100

Post by carlmr »

paganel wrote: post #78
carlmr wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is _why_ they were predicting energy blackouts. I don't remember anyone mentioning Russia cutting off gas. If somebody says something which turns out to be correct, but for the wrong reasons, can we really call them correct in hindsight?

The natural gas prices were already beginning to go through the roof, they were at about the same level (slightly lower, even) compared to now.

But they are quite low right now, because of the warmer than expected weather. So these would be normal prices, and not indicative of an energy problem if you didn't know about the circumstances.
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