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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

economist.com

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#91

Post by incomingpain »

bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

The massive war with China has left obvious key issues in chip fabrication. The reason or whatever for the ongoing war with china doesn't matter.

Similar factories are being built in Germany by Infineon: https://www.infineon.com/cms/en/about-infineon/press/press-r...

Samsung in Texas: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/samsung-plans-17-...

Intel in Arizona: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/intel-is-spending-20-billion...

Samsung/SK in Korea: https://fortune.com/2021/05/13/south-korea-chip-semiconducto...

India is doing something with Risc-V: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1820621

Overall, divestment from china seems to be the goal. But this many new factories being produced is going to overproduce chips and eliminate any profitability; but inexpensive chips like this will most likely create a boon to the economies.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#92

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

breckenedge wrote: post #86
bryanlarsen wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China will invade Taiwan when the cost to do so is low enough and/or they are desperate. In other words, the probability of success is considerably higher today than it will be in the future (even if the probability of success today isn't great). Russia is a declining state relative to Ukraine & Europe, so Putin's odds of success in 2022 were considerably higher than they would be 10 years later. So if invading Ukrai…

Treating political and military leaders as rational entities is dangerous.

Likewise, treating everyone you disagree with as completely insane; devoid of any reasonable motivations is a lazy hand-wavy viewpoint. It’ll also make you prone to suck up any and all propaganda that aligns with your biases.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#93

Post by gdy »

Isinlor wrote: post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

"EU was caught off guard by Russia"

You've got to be kidding me. Putin had been warning West since the Munich speech in 2007. [0]

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Munich_speech_of_Vladim...

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#94

Post by kavalg »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #26

Highly recommend the economist’s podcast on Xi called ‘The Prince’ Xi became a Leninist and is trying to be the next Mao. He is a true believer that his glory and the glory of China can only happen by taking back Taiwan. TSMC is a huge reason for this conflict. The current US policy is trying to slow China’s technological might for that next war.

But I've always wondered if they need the tech or the land more. If it is the tech only, why not resort to industrial espionage or just kidnapping the key engineers from TSMC? Where does the core value of TSMC line on? It is the know-how, some specific machinery that is hard to replicate even if you have the blueprints or something else?

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#95

Post by alexb_ »

gdy wrote: post #93
Isinlor wrote: post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

"EU was caught off guard by Russia" You've got to be kidding me. Putin had been warning West since the Munich speech in 2007. [0] [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Munich_speech_of_Vladim...

Well if you've been warning someone for 14 years and literally nothing has happened, why is it unreasonable to be surprised?

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#96

Post by dr-detroit »

adeptima wrote: post #59
bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said" I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

No post body was provided.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#97

Post by tarsinge »

oneoff786 wrote: post #45
Isinlor wrote: post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

It’s also in the US’ strategic interests to simply make it clear that China can’t have Taiwan regardless of the TSMC however

Of course it is in the US strategic interests, the problem is having strategic interests doesn't automatically give the US rights to intervene. Contrary to Ukraine (plain violation of the territorial integrity of a sovereign nation) the situation in Taiwan is complicated (for those who doubt it please at least make the effort to read the Wikipedia entry). Now given recent history I don't doubt the US will not let it slip when their strategic interests are at risk, but at least be lucid. Edit: To clear doubts I should add I would obviously prefer Taiwan stay an independent free democratic country. I'm only tempering the argument I sometimes see (maybe wrongly here) "it's in our best interests" = "it's the right thing".

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#98

Post by greedo »

alexb_ wrote: post #95
gdy wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"EU was caught off guard by Russia" You've got to be kidding me. Putin had been warning West since the Munich speech in 2007. [0] [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Munich_speech_of_Vladim...

Well if you've been warning someone for 14 years and literally nothing has happened, why is it unreasonable to be surprised?

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, then Ukraine in 2014. Pretty sure that's "literally" something happening.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#100

Post by computerfriend »

roenxi wrote: post #46
mensetmanusman wrote: post #26

Highly recommend the economist’s podcast on Xi called ‘The Prince’ Xi became a Leninist and is trying to be the next Mao. He is a true believer that his glory and the glory of China can only happen by taking back Taiwan. TSMC is a huge reason for this conflict. The current US policy is trying to slow China’s technological might for that next war.

There is a more simple explanation - if China wants a boat to travel from anywhere to Guangzhou, Tianjin or Shanghai then at the moment the boat has to pass close by an island that is a US ally. If China controlled Taiwan, that would no longer be true and they'd have easy access to the Pacific. For the last 300? 400? years the dominant global superpower has been a naval power. You don't need to be a Leninist or a "tr…

China already has easy access outside of the territorial waters of its neighbours. Taiwan's territorial waters don't really prevent it from operating. Less so than Japan, Vietnam and Philipines.
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