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Risk Everything (2007)

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Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#91

Post by delusional »

WJW wrote: post #89
groby_b wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, when you can barely afford to live, the Kelly criterion does not do anything at all for you. You have nothing that you can afford to lose. Not even miniscule bets. If you accept the official poverty line as threshold, that'd be ~13% of people in the US. And the poverty line is ~$14k/year - even if you make double that, the amount of money you can risk is really pretty close to zero. Any risk in that situat…

It seems we agree that below the poverty line people should not make uncertain bets, because they have nothing they can afford to lose. Not betting when you can't afford it is exactly what the Kelly criterion proscribes, no?

You were replying to a person who were pretty clearly implying the position that the game is rigged. It's reasonable to assume your comment was meant to dismiss it as "you're just playing it wrong". I understand after your second comment that that was not the intention, but the first comment could be read as that.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#92

Post by ookdatnog »

boffinism wrote: post #65

"But it dawns on me that luck is just the product of all these other qualities" This, to me, highlights the flaw in the whole article. They nearly died. They were saved by a chance encounter with a friendly boat. This encounter was SO OBVIOUSLY not a product of their own motivation, boldness or any of the rest of that guff. This is the worst form of survivor bias.

There seem to be quite a lot of people who really need to believe that luck plays at best a minor role in (their) success for their sense of identity to remain intact, and who get incredibly defensive when this notion is challenged.

I guess in daily life it's a useful self-delusion. A mostly harmless belief that gets them through the day while being obviously false: if you're born in the middle class in a developed economy in the modern day, you're likely to be vastly more lucky than, say, 99% of all people who have ever existed so far.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#93

Post by boomka »

I can't believe this story ended with a bunch of slogans fit for big corp motivational posters.

This was a story of depravity, desperation, starvation and the horrible choices one has to make when they feel that the only choices left all lead to likely death.

To draw career or enterpreneurship inspiration from it just seems... wrong...

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#94

Post by jwie »

Migrating to the United States or Europe for these desperate souls seems the least risky option.

Sure the journey is difficult and you might die, but this isn’t worse than the alternative of starvation or enslavement in the place from which you flee.

The boat migrant is risking everything. But it’s a calculated risk and he doesn’t have much to lose anyway.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#95

Post by dskloet »

WJW wrote: post #74
buro9 wrote: post #66

I had to do this when young... I was homeless, rough sleeping. Honestly... it's a terrible piece of advice. Those risking everything have no other choice. If you're reading this person's blog post, if you're on HN... you probably have a choice, and you probably aren't "risking everything". I cannot imagine anyone on here actually choosing to potentially have nothing at all, no network, no funds, no assets, no nothing…

Whenever that comment comes up I feel the urge to just post the wiki entry for the Kelly criterion. If you don't have as many resources as your competitors in the market, reduce your bet size!!! Yes, that may mean you cannot challenge Mark Zuckerberg for yacht size just yet, but it will also mean that you can try again if you fail. Match your ambition to your means. Super risky plans with no room for errors make for…

> I feel the urge to just post the wiki entry for the Kelly criterion.

Apparently not that strong of an urge ;-).

For those (like me) who didn't know it yet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#96

Post by Cthulhu_ »

buro9 wrote: post #66

I had to do this when young... I was homeless, rough sleeping. Honestly... it's a terrible piece of advice. Those risking everything have no other choice. If you're reading this person's blog post, if you're on HN... you probably have a choice, and you probably aren't "risking everything". I cannot imagine anyone on here actually choosing to potentially have nothing at all, no network, no funds, no assets, no nothing…

>> Poor kids aren't visiting the carnival. They're the ones working it.

Speaking for myself, I'm kinda priviledged in working in the carnival, it's a good and steady income and I'm accumulating wealth, meaning I'm in a more economically privileged position than my parents and their parents were (housing crisis / cost of living aside, of course, sigh). That can, down the line, if I feel like it, be used as a springboard to do a throw.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#98

Post by Cthulhu_ »

GameOfFrowns wrote: post #79
pavlov wrote: post #69

A reminder that this story plays out dozens of times every day in the Mediterranean right now. 42,549 irregular border crossings were reported in July 2022 on the Central Mediterranean route [1]. The number of those who drowned will never be known. Many of these Africans who dare to cross the sea have already travelled for weeks or months and survived the Sahara. They are not celebrated as risktakers, though. Unlike…

>Unlike this article, nobody sings odes to the boldness, inventiveness, motivation, honor and leadership qualities of the African migrant. Maybe they should. No, they shouldn't. Smuggling migrants into Europe is a business these days. The professional smugglers get paid and can provide transportation at every step of the journey. The most cynical step in this process is creating deliberate distress at sea in order to…

Not only that, but stopping migrants is also a business model in itself; Europe is paying billions to stop migrants, see e.g. https://www.dw.com/en/how-the-eu-spent-billions-to-halt-migr...

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#99

Post by pavlov »

hoseja wrote: post #75
pavlov wrote: post #69

A reminder that this story plays out dozens of times every day in the Mediterranean right now. 42,549 irregular border crossings were reported in July 2022 on the Central Mediterranean route [1]. The number of those who drowned will never be known. Many of these Africans who dare to cross the sea have already travelled for weeks or months and survived the Sahara. They are not celebrated as risktakers, though. Unlike…

I'm sure a lot of NGOs do.

Do they? Faced with the prevalent right-wing rhetoric where a not uncommon position is that African migrants either deserve to drown or at least should be kept in camps somewhere far away, their Western defenders tend to adopt a defensive posture that focuses on basic human rights but also easily patronizes the migrants.

The "Risk Everything" story glorifies a young Cuban boat refugee's leadership qualities. I certainly can't remember ever reading an article like that about an African refugee written by an European. It's somehow easier for us to see the best of humanity in someone from Cuba than in someone from Niger, even when they both suffered under dictatorship and took extraordinary steps to escape.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#100

Post by pavlov »

ajvs wrote: post #76
pavlov wrote: post #69

A reminder that this story plays out dozens of times every day in the Mediterranean right now. 42,549 irregular border crossings were reported in July 2022 on the Central Mediterranean route [1]. The number of those who drowned will never be known. Many of these Africans who dare to cross the sea have already travelled for weeks or months and survived the Sahara. They are not celebrated as risktakers, though. Unlike…

> Unlike this article, nobody sings odes to the boldness, inventiveness, motivation, honor and leadership qualities of the African migrant. Maybe they should. It's a bit odd that choice of traits to ascribe to economic migrants, which could be better describe the African entrepreneurs who chose to stay and improve their home community.

Does the same apply to the Cubans in the "Risk Everything" story? Should they have stayed to improve their community?
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