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People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

robkhenderson.substack.com

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Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#91
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This! Often (actually almost always) time it self is valuable for multiple reasons. Spending precious time in the "meeting room" instead of progressing towards (almost any) implementation can decrease the overall value and increase the risks. Also some people strongly prefer action over deliberation, especially by a committee so there is also a psychological cost to the team to consider. With software and a capable t…

I’ve argued for just building POC approach at times and worked out great sometimes. I found the issue was usually with management. Many have been extremely reluctant to throwing away code. Even though writing POC and re-doing everything will take the same time as planning for ages and doing it once.

Proof Of Concept.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#93
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a paradox but it can be irrational. When the two choices have similar utility the cost of distinguishing them is high and the benefit of making the correct choice is low. There is a crossover point where it does not matter which option you choose, putting more effort into your decision can only leave you worse off, and this article claims we tend to continue putting in the effort well past that point.

> this article claims we tend to continue putting in the effort well past that point. it's because people have the irrational belief that their thinking and reasoning more about a problem/decision makes their outcome better. I think the common symptom found in software is design analysis paralysis. A software team end up using tonnes of time fretting about design choices (often as a committee), rather than just use t…

It can be worth agonizing over the decisions early on while the system is simple and easy to change. Later on it's often not logistically, politically or socially justifiable to go back and fix or improve an original bad design decision and re-base and retest everything built on it.

The result is engineers sat around muttering "I told you so" to themselves and wasting weeks debugging and hacking around bugs.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#94
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have 100 identical socks. Absolutely recommended, not just to avoid the need to choose.

Yes but imagine if they would be bad quality? Then you would have 100 bad quality socks, rather than an even distribution of quality. So some prepurchase trial would be neccessary for me.

I buy 2 pairs of socks or an underwear, use them for a few wears and then buy a fleet.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#96
post #4

I don't think this is a paradox at all. If an option is perceived to be significantly better, then the decision can be made quickly. Otherwise more study is required to decide which is better, or if they are actually indistinguishable. It's the same reason why more trials of an experiment are required to reject the null hypothesis when the effect of the experimental variable is very weak. This is analogous to conside…

It is not a paradox but it can be irrational. When the two choices have similar utility the cost of distinguishing them is high and the benefit of making the correct choice is low. There is a crossover point where it does not matter which option you choose, putting more effort into your decision can only leave you worse off, and this article claims we tend to continue putting in the effort well past that point.

While it may be easy to label it as irrational post hoc, it might not be clear beforehand without the expended effort in evaluation. There is no paradox, just an information asymmetry in time.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#97
post #93
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this article claims we tend to continue putting in the effort well past that point. it's because people have the irrational belief that their thinking and reasoning more about a problem/decision makes their outcome better. I think the common symptom found in software is design analysis paralysis. A software team end up using tonnes of time fretting about design choices (often as a committee), rather than just use t…

It can be worth agonizing over the decisions early on while the system is simple and easy to change. Later on it's often not logistically, politically or socially justifiable to go back and fix or improve an original bad design decision and re-base and retest everything built on it. The result is engineers sat around muttering "I told you so" to themselves and wasting weeks debugging and hacking around bugs.

Sure. Now we need to know when it can be worth. If we do it all the time we're back to the starting point of this discussion.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#98

Going on a tangent here: I wanted to share this article with a friend that doesn't speak English and ran it through Google Translate. It was completely broken with paragraphs in English and others not. I don't remember Google Translate struggling this much with a page. Maybe Substack does crazy HTML things?

Just copy/paste the plain text?

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#99

I like to flip a coin when the decision is difficult. If the answer is satisfying, then either I had an unarticulated preference or it didn’t matter. If the answer is unsatisfying, then I had an unarticulated preference and I can just choose the (apparently preferable) alternative.

JFYI, flipism/flippism:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flipism

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#100
> I am curious whether this works in the opposite direction. Does this also imply that if people take a long time to decide, then the options are roughly equal?

I can disprove the hypothesis above with a counterexample:

Which is the better deal if you're buying gasoline? 500 liters for ¥10000, or 100 US gallons for US$500?

The difference is huge. There's almost a factor of 10 difference in price per unit volume. But you have to spend significant time to figure out which is better. And it's easy to make the problem harder.

So the answer to the OP's question is no; if people take a long time to decide it doesn't necessarily mean that the options are roughly equal.

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