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Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

91–100 of 480 posts

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#91

>Since the Bucha massacre was made public, Germany has financed the Russian government by paying nearly $1.5B for its gas1. What's the number for since the war began? It's higher right? That's a lot of coal per year... 20 years to get 20% wind and solar. Tesla just opened their factory. VW has a nice selection of EVs; Taycan is beautiful! Don't fathom how they could fix their situation. Too bad they didn't have someo…

The US kept telling them not to get in bed with Russia. France kept telling them not to ditch nuclear to appease the irrational Greens. It was cynical political calculation to go for the cheapest energy source, global warming be damned.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#92
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're repeating some of the excuses the article addresses. - The author says they studied nuclear in grad school, and are probably therefore an expert. - They quantify the additional risk of meltdown due to delaying new safety regulations. It's negligible compared to operating plants according to the new regulations. - Their proposal would increase Germany's stockpile of nuclear waste by 3%, which is surely within e…

Everything in life is a tradeoff. To me, the risks of keeping the nuclear plants in Germany are much lower than the risks of continuing to fund Russia.

The economic effects of stopping gas consumption are not immediate for Russia due to large financial reserves and it will not stop the war. It will certainly harm Russian economy, but several months later and EU has no power to fully stop Russian exports - China is a big consumer too.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#93
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Total war is less common than you might think. Ukraine for example isn’t a giant nuclear crater, yet they had a nuclear power plant being shelled. Meanwhile Ukraine isn’t shelling Russian civilians. So it’s quite possible for war between nuclear powers to avoid that level of escalation.

But Ukraine isn't a nuclear power. And there are no circumstances where you're better off fighting an adversary that supplies all of your energy than having your own nuclear reactors.

Neither is Germany.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The author says they studied nuclear in grad school, and are probably therefore an expert. That's not how it works. Just going to grad school (and it appears this is just for a Master's) doesn't imply you're suddenly an expert on an entire discipline . Even full professors don't generally claim to be experts in their entire fields; they become experts in their niches sub-fields/areas of research. You'd need to know…

I think this is moving the goalposts. According to you it's not enough to have the qualifications, you need specific ones in specific sub areas. What's to stop you dismissing him by dividing it up even more if it turns out he's actually studied the right area? To me it sounds a bit like when anti vaxxers dismiss doctors who aren't epidemiologists, or when people dismiss Krugman because he's a trade economist and not…

> What's to stop you dismissing him by dividing it up even more if it turns out he's actually studied the right area?

I would think my reasonableness would stop me in that case, but there's not much I can offer you when you've already assumed otherwise.

And to be extremely clear: I was merely responding to the metric/reasoning used in the parent comment, not making any claims about the author's qualifications in particular. It would've applied to anybody, whether Einstein or just a random dude. Even for Einstein, you don't say "I know Einstein was an expert because he went to grad school", you say (for example) "I know Einstein was an expert in mechanics because he came up with relativity, an expert in electromagnetism because he explained the photoelectric effect, etc." That was my point, is all.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#95
post #15

The arguments against turning back on the nuclear reactors in Germany sound so fundamentally unserious that you are forced to choose between "these people are paid by Russians" and "these people have a phobia about nuclear energy and won't consider any rational arguments". I'm not even talking of the moral position of "we'd better sponsor a genocidal maniac to the tune of a billion euros per week than temporary suffe…

Not mutually exclusive. The USSR did a lot of covert funding of Western anti-nuclear activists during the Cold War. In fact that was probably one V. V. Putin’s job descriptions when he was posted in Dresden.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The author says they studied nuclear in grad school, and are probably therefore an expert. That's not how it works. Just going to grad school (and it appears this is just for a Master's) doesn't imply you're suddenly an expert on an entire discipline . Even full professors don't generally claim to be experts in their entire fields; they become experts in their niches sub-fields/areas of research. You'd need to know…

I think this is moving the goalposts. According to you it's not enough to have the qualifications, you need specific ones in specific sub areas. What's to stop you dismissing him by dividing it up even more if it turns out he's actually studied the right area? To me it sounds a bit like when anti vaxxers dismiss doctors who aren't epidemiologists, or when people dismiss Krugman because he's a trade economist and not…

Being expert in this case means being familiar with the current situation in German nuclear industry and knowing it from the inside. Just knowing how nuclear plant works in theory is not enough.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#97
post #3

Being anti-nuclear is deeply engrained in the DNA of Germany's green party. Even more so than climate change. In fact, when the anti-nuclear movement started, climate change wasn't even a topic. In other words, the only thing that needs to happen is the German green party to admit a mistake in fighting nuclear power harder than fossile fuels...

It's not just the green parties. There's a sizeable part of the population in the German speaking world (and I'm sure elsewhere too) that just views nuclear power as something unnatural and perverted. Something that's always going to be more dangerous than beneficial. I think this notion started even before the Chernobyl accident but that plus Fukushima really reaffirmed the fears lots of people had. It's a very shortsighted view of things but it's unlikely to change.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sentence about simply replacing gas with heat pumps is almost delusional. You can't just switch out the main heating system for an entire country. Heat pumps require quite a lot of conditions that simply are not met by many older buildings. And even if that weren't an issue, there is still the sheer scale of the problem.

> require quite a lot of conditions that simply are not met by many older buildings. Such as?

I think the biggest ask the article is making in an unreasonable way is to somehow find millions of contractors who can actually go home by home and refit the heating systems in a timescale that'd actually be relevant for the war in ukraine.

If Germany wanted to switch everyone over to a different kind of lightbulb they'd need to ensure the production capacity to make the new bulb exists and set up logistics to actually distribute it. You'd have a fair amount of non-compliance due to paranoia and other factors but I think you could probably get it done with a year or two of warning... Once you hand the household the lightbulbs they just go through and replace them all and dispose of the old bulbs...

To change out a heating system you need to remove large appliances, install other large appliances, fiddle around with gas lines and the breaker panel (probably you'd need to replace a fair number of breaker panels in older houses to handle the higher throughput), deal with the wiring which might be unsafe for the power you'll be sending over them... then you'd need to actually install the radiators, that involves tearing up floors to do it right (floor radiation can be extremely efficient and generally creates a higher apparent heat than traditional radiators placed next to windows for fire hazard reasons), or else popping in some other more module style of radiator. Those radiators might use direct electric generation or you might opt for additional boiler capacity (much more sane for efficient stand-radiators) which comes with piping requirements along with a lot more wiring work.

All of that is in addition to all the problems I mentioned around lightbulbs - you're still going to need to actually produce and distribute all the material needed to execute this change.

If you, as a person, want to swap out the heating in your house it'll be a weeks (maybe if you're lucky) or months long renovation - imagine trying to do that on the scale of a country, the only way it'd be even plausible is if you essentially drafted large portions of the population and trained them up on trades - that might not be a terrible economic investment, but it certainly isn't going to happen fast.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#99
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just the German greens. Australia’s greens are staunchly anti-nuclear despite it being the only viable solution to the baseload problem, which renewables haven’t yet solved.

...other than pumped storage, demand shaping and more grid interconnects.

Demand shaping doesn't really solve the energy availability problem; it's "giving up, with computers."

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> require quite a lot of conditions that simply are not met by many older buildings. Such as?

The temperature you achieve is lower than for older gas heating equipment, so your radiators are likely not dimensioned correctly if you switch. You really want floor heating for heat pumps, and very well insulated walls. The moment the heat pumps can't provide enough heating you have to heat with electricity, and that is incredibly expensive especially in Germany.

Modern heat pumps work well below freezing, in Chicago 2021 there were 4 days that gas heating would be more efficient. Maybe don't use a radiator? American heat pumps hear air directly.
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