Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

metaculus.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 419 posts

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#91

Post by k__ »

wackro wrote: post #65
k__ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, they should do the exact opposite. Join EU on a quick path and call Putin's nuclear bluff. I'm not happy about it and can't sleep right for days anymore, because I fear a nuclear escalation. But I don't want to live in a world where such a situation could happen again and again. There are many slavic countries this fascist hungers for.

>call Putin's nuclear bluff. And what do you think would be the outcome?

Someone in power in Russia would see the issue and "remove" him.

The replacement could then spin it as being a good replacement and play by the rules of the west.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#92

Post by quickthrowman »

ryeights wrote: post #35
rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

Does PredictIt make markets on the outcomes of military conflicts? That would pose some interesting ethical dilemmas...

I don’t think anyone is going to change their war plans to earn $850 on a PredictIt contract, let’s be real here.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#93

Post by bobowzki »

tada131 wrote: post #88
nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

What about food?

An army marches on its stomach.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#94

Post by tada131 »

otherme123 wrote: post #46
ch4s3 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a lot better than the regime change that Russia was initially aiming for. Fighting a large neighboring power to a standstill and suing for peace is quite the success.

Basically what Finland achieved in the heroic Winter War. True, Finland lost some terrain, but I don't think anyone would find the aftermath as a soviet victory, when the original desire was to anexate the whole country.

But Soviet losses were incomparably bigger than Finland. Is this war the case?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#95

Post by munk-a »

jcadam wrote: post #42
bufferoverflow wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? Zelenski just declined such an offer from russia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/where-zelensky-is-open-... > Along with "cooling down" to the idea of joining NATO, Zelensky told ABC News that there's room for negotiating on the occupied territories and unrecognized republics. Read between the lines.

Simply appearing to be more open to diplomatic resolution is a huge win on the international stage - I can't say whether he's genuine in his openness to diplomacy but appearing to be more open keeps western support on his side. So, cynically, Zelensky will want to be seen to be open to negotiating whether he is or not - openness to negotiation is, itself, a negotiation tactic... it's like telling your manager that you got a job offer floated from Microsoft to head up a new division and then just saying "Well, I didn't say no".

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#96

Post by mullen »

wackro wrote: post #65
k__ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, they should do the exact opposite. Join EU on a quick path and call Putin's nuclear bluff. I'm not happy about it and can't sleep right for days anymore, because I fear a nuclear escalation. But I don't want to live in a world where such a situation could happen again and again. There are many slavic countries this fascist hungers for.

>call Putin's nuclear bluff. And what do you think would be the outcome?

Nothing. A Nuclear Bluff is just that, a Bluff. Putin can't win in a nuclear war and if he uses nukes anywhere, he is done for. No one is going to have anything to do with him or Russia on any level after that.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#97

Post by bcrosby95 »

WJW wrote: post #58
nxm wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please elaborate on what else the West can do? No fly-zone is a non-starter

Supplying the Ukrainians with food, water and weapons is a good start. Supplying them early warnings about troop movements from satellite imagery and cracked Russian communications would be a second, and it would be very deniable to boot. Sanctions will reduce the ability of the Russians to keep up the offensive in the mid-term, and there is indirect pressure to be exerted via the Chinese (who are miffed at the lack…

> Supplying the Ukrainians with food, water and weapons is a good start.

Countries have been very public about doing this.

> Supplying them early warnings about troop movements from satellite imagery and cracked Russian communications would be a second, and it would be very deniable to boot.

They're pretty obviously doing this, Ukranian forces seem to have a lot of knowledge about Russian movements.

> And finally there are of course all sorts of black ops you can do in an active warzone

Something like 20k "volunteers" have gone to Ukraine to fight. Many of these people are likely not random couch surfers that decided to sign up.

I think the west is already doing almost everything you've outlined here. We just aren't in a position to know.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#98

Post by raverbashing »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #73
imwillofficial wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

The nuclear reactor was shelled. I saw it live. Doubt it had anything to do with radiation though.

The increased radiation is from kicking up dust around Chernobyl

Regardless of that it is incredibly stupid to do any kind of fighting around a nuclear plant.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#100

Post by [deleted] »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #24
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

I think Zelenskyy should take: No eu/Nato membership (face it, he's months or years from qualifying anyways), and he leaves Donbask, and Crimea (for now), but does NOT agree to disband any military, and is allowed to secure his own borders. In otherwords he can still ramp up, then the west simply continues squeezing Putin and Russia for a year, or 3... then he can either go take back Crimea/Donbask regions, or perhap…

[deleted]
Post reply on HN