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Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

economist.com

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Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#91

Post by pbronez »

throwaway4good wrote: post #66

For some alternative perspective - here is an analysis from Chinese government outlet Global Times: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1252149.shtml US needs Ukraine crisis to harm European economy, and legitimize its military presence ... Chinese analysts said Sunday that keeping the crisis intense will benefit the US in several fields: legitimizing its military presence in Europe by demonizing Russia and poison…

Lots of fun creative writing opportunities in authoritarian propaganda offices.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#92

Post by wrnr »

This article strikes me as rather uninformed

> The problem is that the same logic was just as true eight years ago when the fateful decisions were made to annex Crimea and to stir conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Crimea is the location of Russia's Black Sea navy fleet, and the population there is majority Russian speaking and sided with the pro Russian government during the Euromaidan protests.

The other day the US envoy to the UN, warned in an official speech that Russia might make the discovery of a mass grave as a casus belli for invading Ukraine, a few hours later Russia Today reported on having found a mass grave of native Russians.

This is not counter espionage, it is counter trolling, watch these joke by Putin how these scary KGB people think: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0oic-ix9bM

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#93

Post by quantum_state »

throwaway4good wrote: post #66

For some alternative perspective - here is an analysis from Chinese government outlet Global Times: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1252149.shtml US needs Ukraine crisis to harm European economy, and legitimize its military presence ... Chinese analysts said Sunday that keeping the crisis intense will benefit the US in several fields: legitimizing its military presence in Europe by demonizing Russia and poison…

When CNN reported that neither the people in Ukraine nor people in Russia were talking about the happenings between Russia and Ukraine as much as Washington did, it is natural to ask why would Washington cares so much about things far away from home when there are plenty of urgent things to take care in the US?

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#94

Post by daniel-cussen »

hackeraccount wrote: post #59
daniel-cussen wrote: post #8

So to begin with, fact, Putin is a better chess player than Biden. You might think, oh it's just a board game, computers are better at it. You could say that. Apparently the strategy right now is get right next to the border of Ukraine and do military exercises, then watch as NATO loses its shit with every passing second.

NATO has no de jure or de facto commitment to Ukraine. Together and individually they've said repeatedly they don't want Russia going in to Ukraine and they've offered Ukraine support both military and non-military short of an actual commitment while at the same time threatening Russia with sanctions. What exactly is stopping Putin from acting? Every day that goes by and Putin fails to act is it better to say "NATO i…

Nothing is stopping Putin from acting, he is acting. It's a menace. He has the option of acting--he can--but at the moment he's getting all kinds of results without actually declaring a war.

He's winning the war before it even begins.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#95

Post by irthomasthomas »

jcranmer wrote: post #49
conradev wrote: post #26

John Mearsheimer has a really great video from 6 years ago about Ukraine that I found fascinating: https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4 Basically, he thinks the west precipitated the crisis by pushing to have Ukraine join NATO, and he thinks it should remain a buffer state between NATO and Russia

> he thinks the west precipitated the crisis by pushing to have Ukraine join NATO NATO doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO (at least, not for the foreseeable future). That's why, even now , when Ukraine is more or less begging to join NATO, NATO has done diddly squat to do so. A lot of the pressure to join NATO within Ukraine has increased since Russia invaded Georgia and then Crimea. Russia only has itself to blame fo…

NATO cannot admit any country that is involved in active combat. Otherwise it would automatically trigger article five, and doom the world to nuclear armageddon. Even the Bunker Boys in New Zealand may not survive all-out nuclear war with thousands of atomic and super-atomic bombs going off at once.

I would lean toward avoiding that situation, if possible.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#96

Post by AutumnCurtain »

oceanplexian wrote: post #89
AutumnCurtain wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HackerNews has a weirdly pro-Russia bent, at least in these comment sections. People talking about how NATO "shouldn't expand" (why not, if the nations involved want to join a voluntary pact?) and how Crimea is and has been Russian, even though the Russians invaded and conquered it in the past decade... Really odd. Not just making arguments against US involvement but flat out repeating false, pro-Russian propaganda.

I mean part of it could be that lots of us have actually been to Russia (I fit in that category) or are Russian. We don’t need to rely on third party sources to tell us how to think. I’ve also been to China and it’s so much worse but the US propaganda machine loves China, in fact we’re watching them trivialize a country that places minorities in concentration camps on primetime TV. Doesn’t seem odd to me at all. The…

That would explain cogent arguments based on the real world. Does it explain blatantly false ones that align with Russian propaganda?

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#97

Post by sudosysgen »

rosndo wrote: post #71
conradev wrote: post #26

John Mearsheimer has a really great video from 6 years ago about Ukraine that I found fascinating: https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4 Basically, he thinks the west precipitated the crisis by pushing to have Ukraine join NATO, and he thinks it should remain a buffer state between NATO and Russia

> Basically, he thinks the west precipitated the crisis by pushing to have Ukraine join NATO This is a downright lie. Anyone who follows NATO knows that there has been very little desire to allow Ukraine to join.

It's really not. NATO doesn't want Ukraine now that Russia is serious about opposition, but in the 2006-2009 the US was fighting really hard for Ukraine to join NATO despite opposition by France and Germany. Eventually Ukraine had a change of mind, but not before NATO formally stated Ukraine was welcome.

The move away from NATO/EU ambitions was unpopular domestically in Ukraine and led to Euromaidan, after which it turned out that NATO and co. weren't willing to back up their posture anymore.

You should listen to the talk by Mearsheimer, it's very instructive and interesting. There is a reason he is such a respected mind on geopolitics.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#98

Post by bandyaboot »

hollerith wrote: post #55
BobbyJo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, that's still Russia being the aggressor. Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, can align with who they wish, and be lobbied by anyone and everyone to do so, and Russia doesn't get a say in that.

And if 20 years from now, Mexico and Canada decide to align with China and invite Chinese troops to set up on the border with the US, then the leader of the US should explain to US citizen living near the borders, "Hey, I know this makes us vulnerable, and I don't like it any more than you do, but I cannot ethically do anything about it because no country gets a say in the military alliances of any other country," ac…

The US would have every right to use whatever influence they have and whatever diplomacy they can muster to try to prevent it, but yes, at the end of the day, it’s not up to them and they don’t have the right to use force to prevent it.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#99

Post by krzyk »

VictorPath wrote: post #83
krzyk wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to Crimea people.

The Russian military was in the Crimea two centuries ago, and has been there ever since. The new aspect in the past decade is western calls for them to be removed. The revival of Ukrainian nationalism in the modern era was actually a major project of Lenin's. The west is picking up and working on Lenin's own project, although in a slightly different form. The Cuban government has for decades asked the US to remove it…

Russia was only in Sewastopole. Rest of Crimea was Ukrainian, which was confirmed by a treaty signed by Russia.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#100

Post by pbronez »

gfosco wrote: post #10
baremetal wrote: post #2

I read this as why the economist and friends want russia to want war. but maybe im just cynical and jaded?

I don't think you're too cynical, but we can have our own takes. From what I was able to piece together, Russia isn't the one starting this conflict, in action. It's NATO aligned countries trying to get Ukraine to join NATO. Russia made it very clear, that ain't happening and they'll go to war over it. So who's still agitating for war? The zero-evidence claims that Russia was about to invade sure look like pure propa…

> So who's still agitating for war?

Putin. Putin is agitating for war.

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