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Omicron Update, Dec 2

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

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Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#91

Post by junon »

adam_arthur wrote: post #45
junon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading There is not widespread vaccination, though. That's where your argument falls apart.

Covid is spreading at a similar rate today in most countries as it did when it first struck and there was no vaccine at all. Look at the trends in Italy, UK, US, for example. I agree the vaccine helps, but there is no clear impact on reducing spread if you look at infection data in aggregate. We've gone from 0% vaccinated, to 60-70% with no discernable dip in infection counts.

Citation please.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#92

Post by spurgu »

junon wrote: post #89
spurgu wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hospitals have never been anywhere near collapse in most places though. Currently in Finland for example there's currently hysteria about the hospital capacity, whereas in actuality the issue is that some non-critical surgery would need to be postponed. It's far from "collapsing".

Uh. my home state in the US had to call in the military to mediate the ER since people were starting fights because people having e.g. severe heart attacks were just turned away with a "sorry". Italy had severe shortages of medical supplies that led to many medical workers on the frontline to die of infection. Your personal life bubble does not reflect the rest of the world. Asserting "most places" weren't under coll…

Sigh. I've lived in three countries during this whole thing. Of course it's a problem somewhere. Not just as widespread as the media would have you believe.

I just took Finland as an example, since I have family there and happen to follow closely what's going on there (so I don't have to look things up).

And you brought up two examples. Need I remind you how many countries/regions/cities there are in the world?

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#93

Post by simonh »

spurgu wrote: post #76
simonh wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Widespread vaccination dramatically reduces the rate at which the virus spreads, by more than 80%. It's not a binary does/doesn't stop spreading. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z Vaccination rates in the US have been abysmal by developed world status, precisely because so many of you don't think vaccination works. It does work to dramatically slow spreading, but only if enough people take it up.

No it actually does not really stop spread to any significant degree (which is evident just by looking around what's going on everywhere). It just makes the symptoms milder. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7...

Oh, it 'just' saves your life. Oh well, if that's all...

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#94

Post by beagle3 »

loeg wrote: post #82
beagle3 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is nonsense. Vaccination did not stop measles or whooping cough, and has not even reduced their spread (only their symptoms) despite decades of availability. Both of their vaccines are leaky - just like the Covid vaccine.

What? Measles is almost entirely constrained to the unvaccinated and we vaccinate babies for pertussis at 2 months.

Sorry, meant to write flu. Not sure why I wrote measles.

Measles vaccine is, indeed, likely the best vaccine ever in terms of efficiency and safety. It’s also sterilizing rather than leaky.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#95

Post by beagle3 »

Geezus-42 wrote: post #61
beagle3 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No people have gone through their life without catching the cold and very few without catching the flu at least once, despite having flu vaccines for a few decades now. Not all viruses are the same, and sarscov2 is much more like cold/flu than polio. Specifically, saracov2 has reservoirs in animals. Unless you had an effective vaccine that also works for cats, dogs, deer etc and the ability to actually deploy it (thi…

Create an animal vaccine, give hunters dart guns and free rein to shoot as many as they can. Then see what happens.

You are underestimating the geographical spread and numbers of deer in the us. And likely also overestimating the number and ability of hunters.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#96

Post by junon »

spurgu wrote: post #87
junon wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you misunderstand what herd immunity is.

Huh? The point where R0 dips below 1?

I'm more referring to the fact that Europe is nowhere near the low end of the vaccination percentage health officials stated was necessary to have any chance at controlling this.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#97

Post by pfg »

spurgu wrote: post #90
pfg wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand how you came to that conclusion based on the articles you linked. The first study finds that "The SAR [secondary attack rate] in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% (95% CI 18–33) for fully vaccinated individuals compared with 38% (24–53) in unvaccinated individuals" and "Fully vaccinated individuals with delta variant infection had a faster (posterior probability >0·84) mean ra…

> vaccinated index cases are just as likely to infect other household members > It appears to be grossly negligent to ignore the vaccinated population as a possible and relevant source of transmission You're going to have to dumb it down for me as to how this doesn't refer to spread. > we're now dealing with a variant that is significantly more transmissible And yes, agreed. Many are still focused on data from the pr…

> You're going to have to dumb it down for me as to how this doesn't refer to spread.

Vaccinated index cases infecting others in the same household are only one scenario, and in that particular scenario, the study found no impact on spread. The study did find that vaccinated household members were less likely to be infected (SAR 25% vs. 38%) and that vaccinated cases had a faster rate of viral load decline - both of these findings (especially the first one) also relate to spread.

(It's arguably a bit surprising that the faster rate of viral load decline did not have an impact on the SAR for vaccinated index cases - one could make a (hopefully) reasonable hypothesis that this would matter more outside of household settings and thus still have an overall impact on spread, but that's not backed by any data from this study.)

There's also a world of difference between not "ignor[ing] the vaccinated population as a possible and relevant source of transmission" and saying that it doesn't stop spread to any significant degree. It's not binary.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#98

Post by beagle3 »

zamalek wrote: post #73
beagle3 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GP I was responding to claimed SA was a breeding ground for variants. Unless he has a new explanation different from the other hundreds of people with this claim, it eventually rests on a non leaky vaccine. And that’s why I started with this claim. Now, if you have an explanation as to why SA would be a better breeding ground for variants, I would love to hear it. If you read my post in context, you would likely have…

This is not news on how vaccines work. Even the smallpox vaccine had this problem, difference is: nearly everyone got vaccinated.

Smallpox vaccine did, in fact, prevent infection and transmission with estimated 95% efficiency and is thus considered sterilizing.

The Covid vaccine is very leaky, and Marek’s disease and it’s vaccine in chicken is an interesting comparison.

And I did not claim it was news - all I said was that there is no reason to believe SA is a variant breeding ground (any more than any other place) and explained why.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#99

Post by beagle3 »

zamalek wrote: post #72
shmatt wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SA is only 25% vaxxed. Perfect ground for new mutations

SA is not known to be the origin of the variant, it is merely the first country that sequenced it. It is definitely a fertile ground for mutations, though.

Why would it be?

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#100

Post by disambiguation »

zamalek wrote: post #10
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Sweden did a nationwide study, it didn't end well.[1] Several of the bad variants also originated from countries which did not participate in full lockdown (India, Brazil). Edit: if Omicron becomes a second 2020, I'd pay close attention to how Sweden reacts, given their recent experiences. [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-covid-no-lockdown-str...

Are you just reacting to that headline?

Sweden's numbers are really good all things considered [1]

This defies intuition, we would expect a "no restrictions" policy to result in significantly worse outcomes. Maybe the take away is that a healthier population and a better healthcare system is a more significant factor than restrictions and mandates?

[1] https://ncov2019.live/data/europe

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