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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#91

Post by orra »

adolph wrote: post #43
duxup wrote: post #32

I would love for a COVID variation for with low severity illness to become dominant ... forever?

I expect this to be the case since decreased severity is associated with higher virus reproduction. The main question becomes second order effects.

We definitely shouldn't oversimplify. Delta was simultaneously more infectious and more deadly than the original variant.

Virus mutations can be better for us, and they can be worse. This article https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095397/ paints a sensibly nuanced picture.

Re: Update on Omicron

#92

Post by flerovium »

adolph wrote: post #43
duxup wrote: post #32

I would love for a COVID variation for with low severity illness to become dominant ... forever?

I expect this to be the case since decreased severity is associated with higher virus reproduction. The main question becomes second order effects.

This is not necessarily the case for a virus with such a long period of asymptomatic transmission.

There is very little selective pressure for the virus to become less deadly; in fact, higher viron count is positively associated with both transmissibility and mortality.

Re: Update on Omicron

#93

Post by cblpan »

daveguy wrote: post #12
swader999 wrote: post #6

In general, respiratory viruses tend to get less severe over time. With this mass vaccination approach it may not turn out that way by some accounts I've read.

Citations? I think I've heard that too, but if you've read something recently that would help me separate a study from a rumor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention is the canonical example:

"However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains. The vaccine's inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains among vaccinated chickens. The fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccine."

See:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4516275/

Andrew Read on the issue:

https://theconversation.com/vaccines-could-affect-how-the-co...

Re: Update on Omicron

#94

Post by seanmcdirmid »

aortega wrote: post #52
ajmurmann wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?

>Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown? They have obvious ulterior motives. Political motives, or ass-covering. If they don't do a lockdown they will be utterly attacked by the opposition for 'not being proactive enough' no matter if there is only one more death. I believe this is the principal motive, health being a distant second. Remember, governments act first to ge…

Do you really mean that government acts primarily to avoid being voted out of office? Should we be shocked or disgusted by that?

I guess someone like Putin doesn't have to be worried about being unelected, so they were able to go soft on the virus in Russia. But, I don't think that turned out well for them.

Re: Update on Omicron

#95

Post by throwhauser »

loceng wrote: post #49
adolph wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect this to be the case since decreased severity is associated with higher virus reproduction. The main question becomes second order effects.

Yup, tradeoffs forced to select towards survival.

> Yup, tradeoffs forced to select towards survival.

Viruses don't have a plan, or intent. It's not impossible for a virus to screw itself over and kill off all its hosts, or one species of hosts.

https://www.wired.com/2008/11/yes-disease-can/

Re: Update on Omicron

#96

Post by School-Cotton »

marwatk wrote: post #68
swader999 wrote: post #6

In general, respiratory viruses tend to get less severe over time. With this mass vaccination approach it may not turn out that way by some accounts I've read.

Isn't Delta vs Alpha a pretty convincing counter argument? It was more transmissible, more severe and better at avoiding acquired immunity.

Source for the Delta variant being more severe? I hadn’t heard that.

Re: Update on Omicron

#97

Post by Alex3917 »

Taywee wrote: post #71
gukov wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, not after this: https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?s=21

Wasn't that the most up-to-date data at the time? Are you claiming that they did find clear evidence and were lying about it, or that they somehow should have had evidence to the contrary at that time? Just like any burgeoning subject, you should generally keep up with the expert recommendations. Expecting them to have had all the answers and get everything exactly right in a circumstance with as many unknowns as thi…

> Wasn't that the most up-to-date data at the time?

No, China was already arresting doctors for warning about human-to-human transmission in December.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/Li-Wenliang-ch...

Re: Update on Omicron

#98

Post by dahfizz »

afavour wrote: post #27
rafale wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is way better than what the media has been "speculating".

I do wish people would be more specific when saying “the media”. There are a lot of media outlets out there, some are level headed, some are hysterical.

Usually when people say "the media", they mean the mainstream liberal leaning news companies like CNN[1] or New York Times[2]. When talking about Fox (conservative media), people usually just say that.

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/28/world/coronavirus-omicron-var...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/28/us/governors-omicron-covi...

Re: Update on Omicron

#99

Post by soared »

john_moscow wrote: post #31
ajmurmann wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?

You can always follow the money to see who benefits from a decision, and who gets penalized. The initial lockdowns penalized many small businesses (small shops, hairdressers) that could not operate and benefited large online retailers and chains like Walmart that were declared exempt, that got extra business. The lockdowns also justified large-scale payout of benefits, that were funded by increasing the money supply.…

So you’re just ignoring the countless lives saved and lost?

Re: Update on Omicron

#100

Post by koheripbal »

belter wrote: post #38

South Africa's COVID-19 adviser, Prof Barry Schoub told Sky News that so far, most Omicron cases, were mild. https://youtu.be/3RSRtuRm92o Edit: "South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas... "Dr Angelique Coetzee said she was first alerted to the possibility of a new variant when patients in her busy pr…

This is a novice interpretation of the data. Most early cases are recorded as mild. Severe cases and hospitalizations lag infections by 2-3 weeks, and deaths lag by 2-3 months.

It's frankly irresponsible to report this factoid without that caveat.

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