Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off • Hacker News Board

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#91

Post by chroem- » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 10:50 AM UTC

BigJono wrote: post #70

chroem- wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An overview: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-a... Allowing people to leave their house for up to an hour of exercise: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-58277503 Firing on protesters: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/21/victo...

"violators" aren't being shot with rubber bullets. Nazi fuckwits are being shot with rubber bullets after being given hours to leave their violent protests of their own free will before attacking police with projectiles and charging at them. I watched the entire thing live, you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. The Guardian also did an expose on the instigators of those protests are accessed a group…

They're trade unionists. Not exactly the type of people I would put at the top of my suspected "nazi fuckwits" list.

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#92

Post by hnbad » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 11:14 AM UTC

kcartlidge wrote: post #62

> Canadian data now provides real world evidence that vaccinated people produce more antibodies if their second shot is delayed This was decided in March 2021 but the UK introduced a three month delay between vaccine shots in January 2021. What was it about the UK data (btw I'm British) that meant it didn't count as "real world" despite being months ahead of Canada? Don't get me wrong, the UK was laughed at for doing…

When I got my first shot of AstraZeneca/Oxford in Germany the doctor at the vaccination center told me that there was no downside to delaying the second shot because a longer delay would likely produce a greater immunity. The official recommendation was eight weeks.

When the regulating body permitted cross-vaccinations with mRNA vaccines for people already vaccinated with Astra the recommendation for cross-vaccinations was only four weeks and I ended up waiting a little over five instead of eight.

The German government is also shutting down the free testing centers (which means unvaccinated people will have to pay upwards of €25 out of pocket or get a PCR test which costs upward of €80 and can take 24-48 hours for a result. Additionally politicians have been talking about excluding unvaccinated (or not fully vaccinated) people from benefits like paid sick leave during quarantine.

All in all these measures seem to be designed to rush the population through vaccination even if it means having to do boosters (which have already been greenlit for people aged 70+ or vaccinated with the single-dose J&J vaccine) and punishing the unvaccinated to force them into compliance.

Delaying your second shot by up to four months would not only have been unthinkable in Germany, it would have been framed as carelessness, laziness and negligence. The government really doubled down on framing COVID as a personal responsibility issue and overpromised "freedom" through vaccination ("restoring civil liberties") while indiscriminately punishing the unwilling.

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#93

Post by hnbad » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 11:17 AM UTC

Proven wrote: post #18

yelnatz wrote: post #16

I have mixed vaccinations since I'm in BC. Hopefully I get a third booster shot so I can be considered fully vaccinated in the states.

For now. Six months from now you'll need another booster.

The German regulatory body (and I'm sure similar things are happening in other countries) has only been holding off on boosters out of concerns over the supply for first and second shots but is now rolling out boosters for people aged 70+ or vaccinated with the one-shot J&J vaccine, so I'm not sure why this is getting downvoted.

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#94

Post by orra » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 11:29 AM UTC

jeeeb wrote: post #71

defaultname wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Unlike the US and Europe, Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines" Canada was one of the first countries to pre-order vaccines, signing massive agreements with just about every candidate maker. I'm aware of literally a single deal happening with another country prior to Canada's orders. What thwarted Canada's efforts was that the US defacto nationalized the medical establishment in that country, while Cana…

Not to hijack this too much but the Australian vaccine rollout has been widely panned but much of the problems come down to a choice to rely on domestically manufactured AZ vaccines. In a different timeline if the AZ vaccine hadn’t been associated with rare blood clotting, if Pfizer/Moderna hasn’t been able to scale manufacturing as well that strategy would be looking very good. It’s interesting to think that Canada…

Where Australia really messed up was basically stopping use of AstraZeneca entirely (IIRC).

Blood clot risk is much higher the younger you are[1]. It would have been far better to continue using AstraZeneca, but limit it to a certain age and older.

[1] For example, 1.1 of the specific clots per 100 000 vaccinations of people in their 20s, falling to 0.2 per 100 000 in their 60s. https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/communicating-pote...

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#95

Post by bregma » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 11:39 AM UTC

AlexandrB wrote: post #7

roenxi wrote: post #4

We might look at these stats and think that they demonstrate a safe and effective vaccine. But there is still a very real risk that won't stop the government of Canada implementing a full China-style surveillance system tracking system that monitor where every citizen is, when and sets up all the necessary infrastructure to block someone's ability to travel.

This is a bizarre comment. What does the efficacy of Canada's improvised mixed vaccination "plan" have to do with implementing a dictatorship? And have you noticed how big and poorly connected rural Canada is? It's pretty easy to get out of range of cell towers and effectively not be trackable. How is the Canadian government going to cover the country with enough infrastructure to monitor where every citizen is in a…

Why do you think the vaccines contain so many 5G microchips? The hurry to get everyone double-vaxxed even caused a global silicon chip shortage.

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#96

Post by _AzMoo » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 12:06 PM UTC

orra wrote: post #94

jeeeb wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to hijack this too much but the Australian vaccine rollout has been widely panned but much of the problems come down to a choice to rely on domestically manufactured AZ vaccines. In a different timeline if the AZ vaccine hadn’t been associated with rare blood clotting, if Pfizer/Moderna hasn’t been able to scale manufacturing as well that strategy would be looking very good. It’s interesting to think that Canada…

Where Australia really messed up was basically stopping use of AstraZeneca entirely (IIRC). Blood clot risk is much higher the younger you are[1]. It would have been far better to continue using AstraZeneca, but limit it to a certain age and older. [1] For example, 1.1 of the specific clots per 100 000 vaccinations of people in their 20s, falling to 0.2 per 100 000 in their 60s. https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/n…

That's exactly what Australia did, except all of the FUD led to older Australians choosing to forgo AZ due to the perceived risk.

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#97

Post by bakuninsbart » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 12:37 PM UTC

jltsiren wrote: post #27

refurb wrote: post #3

“Bold” strategy? Canada had no option if they wanted to vaccinate quickly. Unlike the US and Europe, Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines. Once it was apparent they couldn’t control the case numbers without vaccines, they took what they could get, prioritized first doses then realized they had different vaccines delivered for 2nd doses. The fact the mixed vaccines gives good protection is more luck than…

As far as I understand, the choice was an informed guess based on theoretical understanding of how vaccines work. For most vaccines, the time between doses is measured in months, not weeks. Those vaccines were tested slowly over years, and the tests focused on finding the most effective timing between doses. Covid-19 vaccines were developed in a hurry, and the priority was getting them approved as quickly as reasonab…

I got cross-vaccinated here in Germany due to being young and getting Astra Zenica as a first dosis. I still had the choice between a second dose of Biontech and AZ, so I read quite a bit about it at the time, and for example one of the leading Virologists in Germany basically said he wouldn't know why it shouldn't work. Basically, the data suggests that there isn't a suprising mechanism that does lead to less protection.

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#98

Post by Majromax » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 12:44 PM UTC

azernik wrote: post #73

abirkill wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of the three vaccines in use in both Canada and Europe, it appears that Canada entered agreements as follows: Moderna: August 5th, 2020 [1] Pfizer: August 5th, 2020 [1] AstraZeneca: September 25th, 2020 [2] Europe entered agreements as follows: Moderna: November 25th, 2020 [3] Pfizer: November 11th, 2020 [4] AstraZeneca: August 27th, 2020 [5] I couldn't immediately find data on the quantities ordered, but this do…

Yeah, not slow in placing orders; the problem was that they didn't prioritize guaranteed delivery dates in contracts like the EU and US and Israel

Evidently, Canada didn't prioritize Q1 delivery dates. From Our World in Data [1], Canada's total dose administration fell behind the EU during February/March 2021, as Pfizer's European production facility went offline for expansion/refurbishment. The dose-delaying recommendation discussed in this article became official in March, at the peak of the 'vaccine gap'.

However, the overall procurement strategy was a success even in comparison to the EU. Canada's total dose administration rate caught up with the EU's by April at 25 doses/100 people, and during the spring/summer when vaccines became available to the general public Canada had greater availability.

From contemporaneous reporting, it seemed that in summer 2020 Canada believed manufacturers' assertions that they'd have vaccine production ready by 2021Q2.

In general, Canada's vaccine procurement strategy was successful, and the 'gamble' on second-dose delays discussed in this article proved useful at expanding availability among the general population. Complaints otherwise tend to focus on the US comparator (neglecting its effectively nationalized industry) or come from partisan political attacks.

[1] -- https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#99

Post by Majromax » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 12:49 PM UTC

didibus wrote: post #40

yelnatz wrote: post #16

I have mixed vaccinations since I'm in BC. Hopefully I get a third booster shot so I can be considered fully vaccinated in the states.

I'm in the states, and they consider 2 dose to be "fully vaccinated". This is relevant for all laws that mention the requirement is to be "fully vaccinated", and that's 2 dose for Pfizer or Moderna and one for J&J.

The problem is that the United States is relying on FDA approval for its recognized vaccines. As a result, AZ shots are not recognized for US-travel purposes, so a Canadian who received a first AZ shot and a second Pfizer shot has only one dose as far as the US is concerned.

Canada has approved the J&J vaccine, but it has not distributed any such shots. The first shipment it received came from the troubled production facility that operated off-spec, and the shipment was ultimately rejected (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/world/canada-jj-vaccine.h...). Canada has only distributed AZ, Pfizer, and Moderna shots.

Re: Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

#100

Post by tetraodonpuffer » Sun, Oct 10, 2021, 12:49 PM UTC

didibus wrote: post #40

yelnatz wrote: post #16

I have mixed vaccinations since I'm in BC. Hopefully I get a third booster shot so I can be considered fully vaccinated in the states.

I'm in the states, and they consider 2 dose to be "fully vaccinated". This is relevant for all laws that mention the requirement is to be "fully vaccinated", and that's 2 dose for Pfizer or Moderna and one for J&J.

If you have been vaccinated in Canada with AstraZeneca you are not considered vaccinated at all in the US (not approved) and you might or might not be considered vaccinated in Europe depending on the manufacturer/lot of your shots (UK, vaxzevria, yes, India, covishield, no, USA, just called AstraZeneca, cannot find any information about it) and the European country in question (not all countries accept all AZ manufacturers as valid).

It is a fairly ridiculous situation and if you need to travel it's definitely an issue given a lot of countries are moving towards "green pass" type actions where unless you are "fully vaccinated" (with the approved vaccine) life will be very difficult for you.

There really should be a better solution about at least the most common vaccines being cross recognized everywhere and not used to artificially block people from moving (why should AZ manufactured in the UK be treated any differently from AZ manufactured in India)