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Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best stats you've ever seen | Hans Rosling https://youtu.be/hVimVzgtD6w

Having not watched the video due to crappy mobile (but I've seen some of his videos before), is this a "things are getting better, stay the course" type video, a "many things are ok, but we have very serious problems here", something else?

> is this a "things are getting better, stay the course" type video

Yes.

And sadly it isn't happening from what I can tell ; see for instance the latest IPCC report [0].

[0] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If one has to have either a civil war or a world war (bizarre choice), a world war would actually serve to unite us, This is not only a terrible American exceptionalism thing to say, but also probably wrong if you look at history of failing states. The Russian emipre was it the brink of collapse before WW1, participation in that war lead to its collapse sooner then it probably would have. From an outside view much…

> However I would love to see American influence dwindle in favor of a more global solidarity of the workers of the world (including American workers). Pardon my assumption, but are you a software engineer in america? How would the downfall of American hegemony and union of transnational labor favor you?

Yes I am a software engineer in America (although from Europe originally). And to answer your other question, the downfall of America might favor me personally if it would be replaced with international solidarity of workers (as I am a worker my self). However my personal wealth is not my aspiration. Or as Mr. Spock once said: “The needs of the many, outweigh the needs of the few”. If I am one of the few, who’s benefits will marginally decrease in order for the needs of the many to be met. Then so be it.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that in the last two centuries we’ve grown and expanded more or less exponentially. The destruction to the environment was proportional to it. Not saying we are going to self destruct, I don’t have a crystal ball to predict that, but it seems to me that right now we’re right on track towards it and the trainwreck is becoming harder and harder to avoid. Global warming and climate change is becoming more a…

But the risk to individual humans has dropped substantially as technology advanced. People were much more likely to just starve to death 100 years ago or die from simple medical ailments. The pressure we are putting on other species and flora is immense but humanity’s future has never been so certain. The only way to claim civilization collapse is to move the goal posts to a population decimation. But even that would…

> as technology advanced

The current shortage give us a glimpse of how fragile it is though. I don't see how we could handle a more serious disruption.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea that's not a conspiracy theory at all. CCP/Russia most definitely have heavily targeted campaigns to sow disunity via the whole "USA is a dumpster fire" and "we're so divided" nonsense all over social media sites like FB/Twitter and Reddit. Of course Reddit being Reddit and so forth you get regular Americans gobbling it up and amplifying. Even worse when late-night hosts with big audiences do it. The strength of…

> To be honest I sometimes wonder why the US gov't doesn't put CCP/Russia on blast and make Americans more aware of this. Because CCP/Russia have already incorporated this into their disinformation campaigns. Anything anti-china is attacked as racist/nationalist. It got so radioactive that the government had to change the pattern they used to name pandemics.

> the pattern they used to name pandemics.

What pattern is that, exactly? Looking at the Wikipedia list of worldwide pandemics with more than 1 million deaths[0], only two were named after places, and one of those ("Spanish flu") was the result of wartime misinformation and/or racism.

Admittedly the other example on that list is "Hong Kong flu" from 1968–1969, but there are other recent outbreaks which are not included, like SARS, Swine flu, and Bird flu.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#Major_epidem...

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that in the last two centuries we’ve grown and expanded more or less exponentially. The destruction to the environment was proportional to it. Not saying we are going to self destruct, I don’t have a crystal ball to predict that, but it seems to me that right now we’re right on track towards it and the trainwreck is becoming harder and harder to avoid. Global warming and climate change is becoming more a…

But the risk to individual humans has dropped substantially as technology advanced. People were much more likely to just starve to death 100 years ago or die from simple medical ailments. The pressure we are putting on other species and flora is immense but humanity’s future has never been so certain. The only way to claim civilization collapse is to move the goal posts to a population decimation. But even that would…

Or if the AI thing doesn’t work out. Or some retarded President ends up in a nuclear war with China/Russia. Either of those are way above 1% chance of entirely hosing civilisation. AI is binary. We get on with it or we don’t. Nukes are a continuous threat until they are 100% solved. People don’t usually get worse at technology so once your neighbour Larry can build a nuke or whip up an AI with his own special flavour, we need something not-invented to protect us.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#96

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

There are also these data points [0], that show that the newer generations have fewer and fewer wealth.

[0] https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/143127950480736666...

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#97
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this ignores a few realities: 1) the largest of the economies rising in Asia, being China, is funded in large part by state subsidies to this day . That won’t last forever. Few wholly Chinese companies that weren’t in Hong Kong before China took it back over have proven they can compete without these subsidies either. 2) As a result of the above, for instance, free market isn’t really “free” and I argue this…

> importantly, the USA is not a democracy, it’s actually a democratic republic People say this all the time to try to sound wise, but in reality it's sort of a meaningless distinction. There's a wide range of functioning models for democracy, and a democratic republic is just one form of representative democracy: Nearly all modern Western-style democracies function as some type of representative democracy; for exampl…

Agreed. The Meaningful Charts Youtube channel presented it well in a recent video "Should Monarchies exist?"

https://youtu.be/dgABWs0SHcE

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#98
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Further. The empire ending didn’t mean civilization did as the Kingdom of Italy continued to exist and the empire was simply replaced with German kingdoms.

Odoacer also recognized Julius Nepos as de jure Western Emperor (although Nepos only ruled over a small rump state in Dalmatia) until Nepos was assassinated in 480. The Kingdom of Italy also maintained Roman institutions like the consuls and Roman senate, which continued to exist as an organization until the 7th century. With Odoacer acknowledging Nepos as the nominal ruler, referring to himself with Roman honorifics…

There wasn't much change in the 470s, but that's because the big earth shattering moments happened decades earlier. The Sacking of rome in 410 was really the moment everything changed for the common person. Rome had long since stopped being the capital of the west but it was still thought of as the core of the empire, the eternal city, and you can read accounts of how shocked everyone was when it fell for the first time in over 800 years. This led to many changes in how society functioned, for example the elites in italy stopped their euergetism which maintained the public works there.

By the time Rome was sacked again in 455, the empire was already beginning to disintegrate into autonomous states, most of which were distinctly not Roman. Roman civilization may not yet have dissapeared from the world, but it was no longer present in many of the places it had been.

By the time you get to 476, odds are the vast majority of people in italy weren't old enough to remember Rome as a functioning civilization. Sure some traditions carried on, just as some do to this day, but people's sense of identity and cultural values had long since changed from the days of Augustus.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#99
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

Yea that's not a conspiracy theory at all. CCP/Russia most definitely have heavily targeted campaigns to sow disunity via the whole "USA is a dumpster fire" and "we're so divided" nonsense all over social media sites like FB/Twitter and Reddit. Of course Reddit being Reddit and so forth you get regular Americans gobbling it up and amplifying. Even worse when late-night hosts with big audiences do it. The strength of…

> I sometimes wonder why the US gov't doesn't put CCP/Russia on blast and make Americans more aware of this.

A large amount of US politicians sold out to both China and Russia long ago. We recently had a president over $200 million in near outstanding personal debt to the CCP...

Check out which group of US senators and representatives went to have tea time with Putin on one of the recent 4th of Julys.

All of our manufacturing infrastructure is over there. There's no going back, because they're somehow able to dupe their constituents into believing they're actually hard on them while lining their pockets, especially with regards to China. Celebrities and corporations have also sold out.

It's going to be a great day of reckoning if some of these people ever learn that their leaders who've always told them they're hard on China and fighting against them are... actually not, lol.

Trump's mainland China nickname amongst the educated and literate is "Nation Builder" for a reason. With reference to their nation, not the United States. Certainly weird times we're in.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#100

“By 476, the empire’s reach was zero.” I stopped reading right here. The Western Empire fell in 476 (for many reasons). The Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire) lasted until 1453. Even that isn’t a perfect way of articulating it, given the continued influence of the Catholic Church had well into the 1500’s (Luther). In some ways one could argue civilization has never ended, but paused in different areas of the wor…

That's a very literal abd misleading reading. The collapse in the West had very specific observable results including:

* A trade crash across the Western empire

* A crash in manufacturing

* Widespread famine

* A retreat from cities and villas

* The withdrawal of the military

* The withdrawal of centralised government influence

* Their replacement by regional warlords

* A huge decrease in civil stability

* A huge increase in petty violence and lawlessness

The millions of people living in the area certainly didn't experience continued expansion and prosperity.

And most writings from Ancient Greece and Rome were lost to the East. Only fragments survived. Byzantium wasn't enough of an outpost to preserve the rest.

What was left in Europe until the Renaissance was a kind of Christianised cargo-cult of the original empire, with most of the knowledge and working features lost. After the Renaissance there was a superficial rediscovery of some of the writing, the architecture, and the history, and it had an influence on modern European culture. But again in a kind of cargo-culty way which eventually turned into something else entirely in every area except politics. (A Roman senator would understand exactly how the US political system works, while being baffled by the technology.)

You can argue that empire building continued elsewhere, but that's a different argument. There were empires in India, China, and the Middle East, but they were distinct and unrelated entities. If anything they've been even more forgotten.

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