Arm China Has Gone Rogue • Hacker News Board

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#91

Post by cletus » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:20 PM UTC

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company.

Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison.

The Chinese government will ensure that no Western competitor will "win" in China. Period. I understand why to a point. My main issue is with the West being completely oblivious to it.

If China wants to impose such restrictions on Western companies, they shouldn't get access to Western markets. And that's it.

Here's where I think this will first come to a head: I believe the US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk as far as working on anything national security related. This will probably extend to key industries of national importance too (eg SpaceX).

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#92

Post by jiveturkey » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:21 PM UTC

denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

Pretty sure that the western world does realize this. Just as we are addicted to oil and realize it will be our downfall.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#93

Post by cronix » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:22 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #75

denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

As soon as we stop banning people from saying that.

Naw, we shall label them as racist and xenophobic for even bringing it up, and we just can't have people labeled as racists running around spewing "facts," so out the ban hammer comes. And the world will cheer it on as they only read the headline of "Another racist banned from x" and scroll on thinking what good people they are.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#94

Post by chrischen » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:22 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #84

nickff wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make the implicit assumption that it is possible to maintain an advantage in the market after destroying ongoing business relationships/expectations (as ARM China appears to have done). I think you may be overestimating the importance of 'apparent market power', and underestimating the value of consistency and adaptability. Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the sho…

> Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the short term, but struggle and founder in the long term. That sounds like a prayer to me. What evidence is there that China can't win? How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries? Consider that the dominance of democracy is a relatively short term thing on…

If your system can’t win because it’s inherently better, then maybe your system shouldn’t win?

Have a little faith. Our system shouldn’t win just because we are using it. After all, our core beliefs are that it is a better system, not just through our pure force of will.

The OP is right, much of China is is still undeveloped and their policies short-sighted and naive. In fact the whole government is so sensitive to face-saving that it screams insecure teenager. Getting worried they might be winning and that we must start to take alternative measures just legitimizes their tactics.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#95

Post by archibaldJ » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:23 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #84

nickff wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make the implicit assumption that it is possible to maintain an advantage in the market after destroying ongoing business relationships/expectations (as ARM China appears to have done). I think you may be overestimating the importance of 'apparent market power', and underestimating the value of consistency and adaptability. Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the sho…

> Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the short term, but struggle and founder in the long term. That sounds like a prayer to me. What evidence is there that China can't win? How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries? Consider that the dominance of democracy is a relatively short term thing on…

> How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries?

Authoritarianism always comes with a top-down execution structure, which optimises for cost-to-execute but not cost-to-transform.

When the need-to-transform exceeds a certain value, it would either have to re-adjust its internal structure or it will crumble (as the cost skyrockets) [1].

Interestingly, the same applies to compiler design, as well as any software systems when viewed at the right abstraction.

And from a functional programming perspective, it is also the principle that underlines the famous Alan Perlis' epigram "LISP programmers know the value of everything and the cost of nothing" (which outlines the importance of compiler optimization such as in tail-end recursion.)

[1] We're already seeing this in China's aging population crisis (thanks to the one-child policy introduced in 1980 [3]), and I doubt Xi's banning of private tuitions [2] would help (if we take his policy at face value).

[2]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-24/china-ban...

[3]: fun fact - this policy had affected many people including myself in a deep personal level. By law I am not supposed to exist (I'm a Gen Z born in China illegally as a second child (after my parents bribed the hospital, and afterwards we still had to pay huge fines)).

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#96

Post by jiveturkey » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:23 PM UTC

> of the Century

It's only 2021. There's bigger and better to come. Guaranteed.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#97

Post by papito » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:23 PM UTC

nickff wrote: post #77

denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

You make the implicit assumption that it is possible to maintain an advantage in the market after destroying ongoing business relationships/expectations (as ARM China appears to have done). I think you may be overestimating the importance of 'apparent market power', and underestimating the value of consistency and adaptability. Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the sho…

A couple of points. Not to turn this into a discussion about advantages of one system vs another, but here is why China has a leg up:

1. What the United States has is not Capitalism - it's a badly broken Capitalism. The power of healthy oversight and regulation has been decimated by shocking amounts of money which, now, thanks to the same corrupted system, is mostly "dark". We are not exactly in an oligarchy, but we are very close.

2. You can think of China as a team. They still, as a whole, unite around their national and strategic interests, as a nation. We, on the other hand, wonder about which country owns this or that particular Congressperson, and wearing a mask as a health measure for the greater good of the country is bloody murder.

How is this going to work?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#98

Post by matheusmoreira » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:24 PM UTC

denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

Western businesses will never care. They don't care that the chinese destroy the planet. They don't care that the chinese manipulate the quality of the products they manufacture on their behalf. They don't care that the chinese sell counterfeits at huge markups in markets developed countries couldn't care less about.

The only thing they care about is money. They'll never stop doing business with China until it stops making them money.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#99

Post by BizarroLand » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:24 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #84

nickff wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make the implicit assumption that it is possible to maintain an advantage in the market after destroying ongoing business relationships/expectations (as ARM China appears to have done). I think you may be overestimating the importance of 'apparent market power', and underestimating the value of consistency and adaptability. Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the sho…

> Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the short term, but struggle and founder in the long term. That sounds like a prayer to me. What evidence is there that China can't win? How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries? Consider that the dominance of democracy is a relatively short term thing on…

I mean, they seem to win by simply throwing bodies on the pyre, working their own citizens to suicide in order to provide cheap labor to the rest of the world until they get valuable IP and steal it.

Capitalism thrives on cheap labor and cannot stop itself from being lead like a lamb to slaughter as long as China keeps pumping out all of those man hours of labor for the taking.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#100

Post by matthewdgreen » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 7:25 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #84

nickff wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make the implicit assumption that it is possible to maintain an advantage in the market after destroying ongoing business relationships/expectations (as ARM China appears to have done). I think you may be overestimating the importance of 'apparent market power', and underestimating the value of consistency and adaptability. Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the sho…

> Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the short term, but struggle and founder in the long term. That sounds like a prayer to me. What evidence is there that China can't win? How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries? Consider that the dominance of democracy is a relatively short term thing on…

We've been down this road with the Soviet Union during portions of the cold war, when folks in the West thought that high Soviet GDP catch-up growth would translate into sustained non-catch-up growth and meant non-authoritarian governments were doomed. It didn't work out that way.

Democracy isn't assured, we could easily vote it away in the West. But there is definitely a pattern whereby enormous cutting-edge economic growth seems to require relatively free societies. To make a long term bet on an authoritarian approach in a world where those societies exist, that seems like a very risky thing to do.