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Where has all the productivity gone?

johndcook.com

91–100 of 219 posts

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And was what TikTok did positive impact?

You don't think bringing people joy is a positive impact?

Were those people not being brought joy before TikTok? Did the amount of joy in the world increase? Does it increase with every new frivolous app? If so eventually we will be overwhelmed with the pure bliss of being alive, but that does not seem to be the trend.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#92
post #90
post #2

There is a huge assumption here that productivity isn't increasing, which is false. Economic output per hour worked has been steadily increasing in every country since their respective industrial revolutions. When you go to the source tweet, it turns out that it's comparing the developed world to the developing world. Developing economies will always grow faster, but not necessarily efficiently, because there's more…

> There is a huge assumption here that productivity isn't increasing, which is false. Actually the assumption in the post is the exact opposite: that productivity has increased. The question it poses then is "so what do we have to show for it?".

It might be that we're spending the increased productivity on temporary things rather than long-lived things. For example, spending $1M on keeping a retired cancer patient alive. That's good for them, good for their family, good for lots of people to feel like they'll have a chance of survival if they get it, but it doesn't cause a new bridge to be built, etc. The technology improves, the knowledge improves, but those things aren't visible on a skyline.

It might also be things like higher quality food, varieties of food, yachts for the rich that most of us don't ever see, or things like that, things that are either consumed and don't accumulate wealth, or things that are relatively long lived and durable but not part of most people's lives because most of the gains have gone to the top 1%.

Other ideas: paper pushing services like handling unnecessarily large volumes of litigation just to run a business, which requires work and causes GDP to go up but doesn't produce actual products.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#93
> And while moving from Smith Corona 1950 to Word 95 is a big improvement, moving from Word 95 to Word 365 isn’t.

This is an interesting and very important point in overall computing today as well - for the vast majority of use cases, many of the todays top patterns are actually not just a small improvement, but are worse. Keyboard shortcuts are usually (not always) faster than mouse/trackpad driven visual pointers. Many of the current UIs are resource hogs that slow things down by a lot. UI patterns have also gotten somewhat less usable - in many cases one cannot easily tell of a surface is clickable in iOS and Android.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TikTok, Clubhouse and Robinhood have touched the lives of orders of magnitudes more people than Tesla or SpaceX. Tesla sold half a million cars last year. TikTok provided entertainment for a billion people.

I think there’s a disconnect in what we deem to be value. SpaceX has rapidly reduced the cost of lift to orbit (and shortly, revolutionizing global comms via StarLink). Tesla has forced an entire industry (light vehicles) to electrify by demonstrating very little compromise vs combustion vehicles while their stationary storage products are forcing thermal generators off the electrical grid (cannibalizing ancillary/fr…

Right, but if we go too far on this, you end up with the USSR's problem of having large investment in infrastructure but no investment in consumer goods.

Although it might be true that we're over-investing in a sort of ultra-sugary sort of consumer goods that are not healthy for society in the long term.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#95
I'm entirely clueless as to how to measure productivity at scale in a standardised manner.

For example, washing machines create a lot of extra leisure, because it makes humans productive. A washing-machine assisted human can was 100x as much clothing in a given minute of operation time. But I have no clue where such a productivity improvement would show up in the data.

Of course I can study things like 'how many hours do you spend maintaining your household', and you'd see that dropping decade after decade, despite living in ever larger homes with more functionality (and thus, a larger 'maintenance load'). That's productivity, and stand-alone it can be analysed and concluded as such.

But fitting that into the same productivity data as say, the construction of homes per worker in an elegant way? I don't know how you would do that.

Nor do I know how you account for completely different units across time and sectors. For example, how do we measure productivity of the pharmaceutical industry? Patents per person? Medicines launched? Number of lives saved by vaccines?

A GDP per worked hour is of course a great start. But it leaves a lot out, too. For example, technology that sequences a genome for a penny in a short timespan may indirectly lead to gdp growth, perhaps, but in and of itself that massive cheap boost to a researchers' insight into a genome will not show up as a direct boost to GDP, in fact the opposite.

Curious to understand from economists how such challenges are typically handled and what the data says.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#96
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this is something I saw inside a lot of companies, especially when they get sizable funding: they become simultaneously obsessed with hiring and process A lot of it just seems to be driven by strange attempts at optimization. For example, at my company, there was a lot of time spent on figuring out developer metrics (for all four of us on the team at its peak) and cost accountability. On the cost accountability sid…

Yeah this also sounds like part of the "MBA-ification" of business. I think a lot of this comes from a reasonable goal to have: if can find appropriate metrics which represent the work your company is doing, this should give you a reasonably objective way of measuring how different interventions move you closer to or farther from your goal. But I think the problem is that actually finding and implementing those metri…

I witnessed what you are describing first-hand. Some years ago, in a job far away, the overall account manager for my region managed everything through a single budget spreadsheet. Decisions were made entirely based on cost without any actual thought to the outcome of the decision. While in the middle of cutting cost, the company failed to deliver some important contracts that led to the company being penalized (to the tune of tens of millions of dollars). The irony, if they'd just spent a fraction of the penalty amount hiring people, they would have been able to deliver on the contracts and avoided the penalty.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone churning out Tiktok, Clubhouse, and Robinhood while we need more SpaceX and Teslas. I’m unsure how to tilt the equation so solving for hard (necessary) engineering is more profitable (or lower risk) than window dressing.

TikTok, Clubhouse and Robinhood have touched the lives of orders of magnitudes more people than Tesla or SpaceX. Tesla sold half a million cars last year. TikTok provided entertainment for a billion people.

drug cartels "touch" the lives of millions of people and make billions in revenue and I'd say they are a net negative for society

most consumer apps are net negatives that sell digital dopamine hits and studies have shown make people more depressed the more they use them

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#98
post #50

> The Great Dissipation. Yeah I was consulting for about 5 years and this is something I saw inside a lot of companies, especially when they get sizable funding: they become simultaneously obsessed with hiring and process, and very little real work gets done. To be honest, I think it might be an inevitability of the productivity boom. Thanks to technology and automation, it's possible for a single individual to accom…

It's indeed very notable that there's a lot of talk how to make people generate more value to others, and nothing about how people find ways to consume the value that others create.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#99
post #90
post #2

There is a huge assumption here that productivity isn't increasing, which is false. Economic output per hour worked has been steadily increasing in every country since their respective industrial revolutions. When you go to the source tweet, it turns out that it's comparing the developed world to the developing world. Developing economies will always grow faster, but not necessarily efficiently, because there's more…

> There is a huge assumption here that productivity isn't increasing, which is false. Actually the assumption in the post is the exact opposite: that productivity has increased. The question it poses then is "so what do we have to show for it?".

Cheap clothes, cheap flights, cheap music, movies, cheap food, longer life expectancy, bigger homes with smaller household sizes, cheap washing machines and various appliances, all with far fewer working hours, and far less household work while you're off-work.

I'm definitely better off than my parents or grandparents. Hell, we have stories in our family where my uncles would shower at the communal bathhouse cause their home didn't have a bath nor hot water. Everyone used to wear hand-me-downs. We used to send cassette tapes to family abroad because international calls were so expensive. We flew every few years instead of multiple times a year. We saved up for CDs, and I literally never, ever went out for dinner to a restaurant (outside of a rare holiday) with my parents. My dad lost both parents as a child to old age, my grandfather worked 6, sometimes 7 days a week, my grandmother spent almost the entire day running the household (e.g. washing clothes by hand), they had no retirement and lived like that till death.

I'm often surprised about this idea we've got it worse off. The conversations usually revolve around housing, healthcare and college having become drastically more expensive. (although, never normalised for interest rates that dropped from 15% to 3%, homes that average 2x larger than 60 years ago with fewer people, life expectancy increasing by a decade since 1950 etc etc). Life isn't better in all respects, but on the whole I certainly wouldn't want to trade with past generations. And a lot of that boils down to productivity allowing new measures of wealth for many.

If we look at it on a worldwide scale, the difference is much, much more pronounced. Many lower income countries saw massive productivity improvements. We shouldn't forget that the past 3-4 decades have been all about globalising markets. Factory workers in the US now compete with those in China. IT staff the UK is competing with IT staff in India. Technology is relatively mobile and goes across borders easily. You cannot measure ceteris paribus productivity improvements in terms of gdp per capita in the west without correcting for increased competition abroad (e.g. in China). And in doing so, you will find that there's even bigger productivity increases in lower/middle income countries, too.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#100
? Productivity is to a great extent a measure of producer surplus.

If you can sell something at a higher prices, often that leads to 'greater productivity' when really it isn't.

So if consumers have more buying power, and we make the same amount and quality of stuff, but sell at lower prices, consumers are getting a better surplus i.e. 'consumer profit' ... then that's where productivity can 'disappear' to. Literally higher standard of living.

If we measured in some objective price - or - we just measured in terms of 'quality of things produced' we'd see that better.

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