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The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

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Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#91

Post by HPsquared »

s5300 wrote: post #83
goldenkey wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No gain in truth, let's just lie. Yeah, I think my government says the same things about UFOs. It's working out really well, for the past 80 years. We should have the truth so we can be abreast of what is possible in this world. For example, if actual engineers knew that Mach 10 UFOs existed, they'd probably be working on next-generation propulsion systems. And as for the lab leak, those in biological research would…

>as for the lab leak, those in biological research would be a little bit more careful. You say this as if you know that they're purposefully not being careful or something.

There are different levels of "careful". Look at the early days of nuclear research, chemicals or aviation industries compared to present-day regulations in those fields.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#92

Post by jyounker »

zohch wrote: post #60
simonh wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the first point, they're just saying that 3 people seeing a doctor about flu symptoms at that time of year is not unusual (most Chinese routinely go to hospitals for any medical treatment), and that even if they did have Covid instead of flu they might have got it outside the lab. There were people in Wuhan with Covid back then, but there were a lot more people with flu. The odds that any given three people with f…

> they're just saying that 3 people seeing a doctor about flu symptoms at that time of year is not unusual (most Chinese routinely go to hospitals for any medical treatment) But what evidence is there that this was the case, that they just had normal flu like symptoms, and it was not more serious? What information at all do we have about their cases, and how trustworthy is this information, and why does this have to…

What evidence do we have that it was anything other than normal flu?

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#93

Post by accurrent »

morpheos137 wrote: post #90
accurrent wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, I would see this as a shifting of blame from the government's perspective. Anyone who runs a government should know that legislation will be broken. People will not comply with orders. Thus the government should implement extremely simple and transparent legislation - something that most governments tend not to do. This legislation should be possible to enforce. One of the best ways to gain empathy is to in…

My point was not to assign blame but rather observe that the difference in the way the popuations reacted. Western populations likely did not take the pandemic as seriously as say China or Japan because of mixed messages from government, conspiratorial thinking, and exceptionalism. For conspiratorial thinking have a look at godlikeproductions.com countless threads about virus fake, virus harmless, masks don't work, v…

True. But I don't think its only the populations. We have had a few clowns in Singapore who have expressed similar opinions. Yes, many of them have been prosecuted and charged for not complying, but I'm sure there are some who still have weird ideas about covid being a hoax or the vaccines being untrustworthy. (In fact we have had a lot of trouble convincing the older population to vaccinate some of them think the government approved American vaccines are too experimental)

Japan honestly has done a terrible job managing the epidemic if compared with the rest of East Asia. It cannot be clubbed with China. In China we do not actually know the amount of compliance as that data is not available to us. I know of at least one protest held in Wuhan during the lockdown. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/wuhan-ren...

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#94

Post by rob_c »

It doesn't have to have been engineered to have escaped. Why this convolution keeps happening is beyond me, we "know" this isn't a bio-superweapon.

Taking this as read, either:

Researchers at the lab failed to spot something like this in the wild, in an area where they were looking for this. So, failed to raise the alarm appropriately with acceptable transparency.

or, Researcher work at the lab led to the collection of this from bats and some set of unknown situations led to it getting into the populace. So, caused the disaster they were trying to prevent/research.

Either way it's clear China reacted as-if this was the end of days. Which is understandable given the nature of the work going on inside the lab The fact that everyone involved seems to have thrown up barriers into a sensible discussion on this is unfortunate and renders most conversations mute such that we'll probably never know how bad it was.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#95

Post by aerosmile »

The minute the PRC government destroyed the evidence, they lost the presumption of innocence. Let's also remember - we're dealing with very smart people who very well knew the price they were paying by not cooperating with the international community, and yet that path seemed more attractive than just "coming clean."

I wonder what the judicial system would have to say if a murder was committed in my house, and there was evidence that I destroyed the evidence. Also, I don't have an alibi, and have multiple prior felonies. Would that be enough to put me in jail again?

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#96

Post by whydoyoucare »

jeegsy wrote: post #68
emilgouliev wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“When HIV/AIDS emerged in the 1980s, it was alleged, with a little Soviet help, that the virus had been developed in an American lab. Between Washington’s inaction on the epidemic and its sordid past of shady experiments, proponents said the theory couldn’t be dismissed out of hand. After many early cases of tick-borne Lyme disease were first identified around Long Island Sound, it was deemed too much of a coincidenc…

> This literally happens every goddamn time. Natural explanation is simpler. NO it doesn't. Just because some theories LATER turned out to be wrong does not mean that we automatically dismissing this or that theory. It really doesn't matter if the "lab leak theory" is later on definitively discredited. To me thats not the point. The point is whether or not there was any justification for not only ignoring but activel…

Agreed - dismissing the lab-leak theory early on without conclusive evidence either way was certainly suspicious.

Any scientist worth his/her salt shouldn't dismiss any theory outright without having hard data to back it up.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#97

Post by user-the-name »

zohch wrote: post #60
simonh wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the first point, they're just saying that 3 people seeing a doctor about flu symptoms at that time of year is not unusual (most Chinese routinely go to hospitals for any medical treatment), and that even if they did have Covid instead of flu they might have got it outside the lab. There were people in Wuhan with Covid back then, but there were a lot more people with flu. The odds that any given three people with f…

> they're just saying that 3 people seeing a doctor about flu symptoms at that time of year is not unusual (most Chinese routinely go to hospitals for any medical treatment) But what evidence is there that this was the case, that they just had normal flu like symptoms, and it was not more serious? What information at all do we have about their cases, and how trustworthy is this information, and why does this have to…

Much more relevantly, what evidence is there that this wasn't flu? That is where you need to start. You can't assume your conclusion and demand everyone else disprove you.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#98

Post by derbOac »

emilgouliev wrote: post #10
_huayra_ wrote: post #7

As someone who is out of the loop on this and only a basic understanding, it seems very peculiar that scientists were so quickly to just jump on the "it must be bats and a wet market" thing so early on despite the Wuhan lab being right there. It's like when some out-of-control company creates a superfund site through gross negligence of industrial byproduct handling and then goes "idk cancer gonna cancer. you can't l…

“When HIV/AIDS emerged in the 1980s, it was alleged, with a little Soviet help, that the virus had been developed in an American lab. Between Washington’s inaction on the epidemic and its sordid past of shady experiments, proponents said the theory couldn’t be dismissed out of hand. After many early cases of tick-borne Lyme disease were first identified around Long Island Sound, it was deemed too much of a coincidenc…

So, in those cases I would say even though they are conspiratorial, I'd hope someone would be looking into those possibilities at least to some extent if they're even marginally possible. The nature of these things is when conspiracies are real, they're often made to look like something else, and to make people who see them look crazy.

The other thing is that this case seems different? It's not some vague accusation based on some xenophobic idea of "The Other" or a geopolitical adversary, or a threatening location -- for instance, a US military rival, or a military base -- but rather a large lab specifically focused on experimental virology research. Even more specifically, it's a lab that has been involved in genetically manipulating closely related viruses to be more virulent. There's been suspicious coverup activity by multiple parties, which in itself is not evidence, but I think raises some "worthy of investigation" rationale, and also has been a serious ethical problem in itself regardless of the actual SARS-CoV-2 origin.

I guess in short, yes, there's always conspiracy theories. But this time is different. I don't really see this situation as comparable to other situations, because the evidence justifying serious consideration is so specific.

Personally, I think the train has left the station on ever figuring out what really was the source. This delay in itself seems suspicious to me but I don't know that I'll ever really feel confident about any particular explanation.

As for "simpler", I think that depends on your subjective opinion. I personally think that the perspective that the "natural explanation" is simpler is naive, and underestimates human behavior, especially in our time.

Take Ebola: is it really irrational for non-white, non-Euroamericans to be suspicious of health care workers given, for instance, what happened at Tuskegee and in the search for Osama Bin Laden? There's a reasonable argument that it is irrational, but also a reasonable argument it's not irrational. Turn it around. What's simpler?

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#99

Post by joejerryronnie »

Taniwha wrote: post #46
stavros wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings that humans were continuing to play russian roulette with the way they were living with an using animals. How do we live with and use bats that makes viruses crossing over more likely, though?

Both the Ebola and Marburg viruses both seem to live in bats in Africa and periodically transfer to humans - given it's happening in one place means it's not surprising it happens elsewhere

Sure, but does it happen right next to a world renowned Ebola virus research center?

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#100

Post by rossdavidh »

The real motive behind most of these kind of articles: "...loose talk about a lab leak elevates tensions between China and the United States, undermining the collaborative research we need to understand this pandemic and prevent the next one."

Translation: "please shut up about this, it doesn't matter now and we need to get China calmed down, and this talk is making them defensive and therefore uncooperative." The rest of the article is mostly just FUD to try to provide a plausible excuse for ignoring the obvious fact that China is covering up, so that raises the possibility that there is a mistake for them to cover up.

I would prefer the truth to be brought out. But, I have to admit, it may be that the "let's just pretend we don't realize they screwed up" policy is in fact the wiser one.

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