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What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

electionscience.github.io

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Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#91
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> dragonwriter thinks that different voting systems, implemented in different cultures, will exhibit strategic ("dishonest") voting to different extents No, that's not it at all. I mean, now that you mention it, that sounds like something I would agree with, but its not either what I was saying here or particulary relevant to this discussion. What I said here is about honest not dishonest votes. For ballots that do n…

Oh, I see. That interpretation didn't occur to me because at that point I hadn't noticed that you think of ordinal preferences as what voters fundamentally have, and of scores / approval as being derived from those. Again, I just don't think that's true. (But: Whatever the cause, I misunderstood your position and consequently misrepresented it, and I greatly regret that.) It sounds as if you are arguing that it must…

> I hadn't noticed that you think of ordinal preferences as what voters fundamentally have

I think that ordinal preferences are the objectively comparable thing that voters fundamentally have, relevant to the question of normal elections of candidates in public elections. That’s not all they have, and if we had an objective way to measure and an objectively correct way to aggregate expected experienced (dis)utility you could probably build a better public choice system around such a measure and aggregate than anything using ranked preference ballots. But we know from the research done in scoring/rating systems that the kind of things done in score/range voting or compressed-preference ballots like approval aren’t anything like a consistent measure of that, even before considering aggregation issues.

For lots of group choice situations that aren’t elections of candidates for public office, either approval or score style voting (and probably in some cases other compressed-preference systems besides approval) have concrete comparable meaning across different ballots and make sense, as I discussed with some examples upthread.[0]

> But to whatever extent there are actual differences in values that go beyond mere ordinal preferences, it is simply not true that "approval/score/etc. ballots are at best just ranked preference ballots with either randomized noise or randomized compression".

It is, across a population, in normal secret ballot, no personal consequence for the relation of ballot markings to actual winners, someone must win, elections for public office [1], because there is no consistent mapping to what people have beyond ranked preferences and how they do scoring of the type those ballots call for. There’s been fairly extensive research on this where it comes to rating systems. It’s one of the reasons rating systems have trended away from generic forms (though there is a lot of inertia!) to context-specific forms that focus on what has consistent meaning across respondents for the particular use being made of the rating. E.g., Facebook a while ago dropping 5-star ratings for “Would you recommend?”, media platforms like Netflix and others that had star ratings switching to just Up/Down, etc.

[0] including some public elections, e.g., modified approval makes sense — and is in effect used in California (though it isn’t called that) — for conflicting ballot measures, where in the event of fundamental conflict of measures in the same election, the “winning” measure if multiple get at least the minimum required to pass is the one with the most yes votes.

[1] But even for public office elections, if you weaken any of those constraints you can find situations where this changes. E.g., plain approval would make sense in candidate elections if you eliminate the “someone must win” condition, and instead it is an optional position, and if no candidate (even the one with the most approval ratings) got more than some threshold (say, approval by a majority of voters), then the seat would be unfilled. Then, the approval/disapproval choice would have a concrete meaning rather than just being an arbitrary compression of preferences. (Actually, that’s effectively the same system as the one discussed above used by California for competing ballot initiatives, which works because in any such set of initiatives, “None are psssed” is a valid final outcome.)

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#92
post #50
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a couple reasons. IRV has been around a lot longer and is used in other countries. (It was first used in Australia in 1893.) In the U.S. it's supported most prominently by FairVote, which seems to be a pretty well-funded organization. (FairVote calls the proposal RCV, and most media follows suit.) The main proponent of approval voting seems to be the Center for Election Science, which is a pretty smal…

IRV has a non-complicate-to-explain problem: you can screw up the ballot and invalidate your vote. > Unlike many single-winner methods, instant-runoff cannot accept equal rankings, and must discard ballots with multiple first-preferred remaining alternatives: such ballots would be equivalent to casting multiple ballots in a plurality election With all-the hubbub on the last election about vote validity, and hanging c…

I think 321 lets you have as many good/bad/ok candidates as you like. The thing it doesn't allow is marking a candidate as, say, both good and bad at the same time. (I'm not an expert though, I just heard about 321 yesterday, and my source of knowledge is the most plausible-looking google search result.)

I agree that a likelihood of higher-than-normal percentage of spoiled ballots is a potential problem with IRV, at least with mail-in or in-person paper ballots. Voting machines shouldn't have a problem with it.

Approval is about as simple as it gets. In order to spoil the ballot you'd have to do something pretty strange like tear the ballot in half. Or with mail-in ballots, the usual things like not signing the envelope (assuming that's required in your state) or mailing it too late to arrive on time.

I don't see ballot spoiling as necessarily a show-stopper for using RCV on its own, but there are other compelling reasons not to use it (such as failing monotonicity).

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#93

Geeking out about voting systems is great. Big fan. Even better are voting systems in context. Voter education, cost of administration, quality of outcomes, cultural impact. For examples: - Approval voting has the best balance between simplicity, fairness, and certainty. (For single winner contents.) - The multiple choice systems reduce partisanship, negativity. Because all candidates want to be your second choice. -…

Getting rid of primaries? That’d effectively end political parties.

Funny enough, Washington wasn't a fan of parties. The argument against them is that they encourage lazy voting. Sure, there are advantages in that a party will help summarize a list of policies, but the disadvantage is tribalism. I think in modern day we don't have the same need for policy hinting (what parties give) because every major politician lists all their policies and positions on their campaign websites. 50 years ago this would be a logistical nightmare.

That said, if we adopted something like score or STAR I don't think there would be any problem with parties, nor would they be destroyed. You still get the advantages of pooling resources. Have a strong preference for members of the hippo party? You can donate and campaign for them even while you hash out which candidate best represents the coalition of people at the time. Think the hippo party played dirty and kicked out your favorite candidate Salamander-Gibbon Yack but really don't like the opposing party Tree Trunks? You can still vote your favorite person and not have any determent (system is monotonic). This actually gives less power for the hippo party to determine for you which is your preferred candidate.

Better yet, you get a lot of information! So even if the hippo party's leading candidate wins but you find that Salamander-Gibbon Yack was an extremely close second then the hippo party will have to update their policies (hopefully). By rating, instead of ranking, candidates you have a substantially more expressive ballot and we can data mine and learn from it through this expressiveness. We live in the age of big data and yet in politics we compress data to a point that is almost meaningless.

Cardinal systems won't destroy political parties, but they prevent them from controlling and manipulating the elections.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#94

It looks like it's a metric constructed to justify Range-ish voting systems, a la Warren Smith's Bayesian regret models. It performs the same core sleigh of hand: it takes a very simple view of strategic voting, assuming a fixed share of the electorate vote "strategically" regardless of election method, and making big assumptions about what's a good strategy. That is, to put it mildly, not a reasonable assumption. It…

Condorcet methods performed well in this analysis, even under the various strategy models. Although it says that STAR performed slightly better under strategic voting, its scores are still very high. The main reason given in the text for preferring to highlight STAR was a (common) belief that the Condorcet methods are too difficult to explain and that explainability is important. Personally I think the Condorcet meth…

> Personally I think the Condorcet methods are not that difficult to explain.

To the voter, no. It is just a ranked choice/ordinal system (which is why people get mad at IRV being called RCV). Just rank your candidates in order of preference. People naturally understand this, yes. BUT that's not what people typically mean when they says the system is hard to understand. What matters is transparency and how easy it is to tabulate the votes. Actually this is where all ordinal systems fall in comparison to cardinal systems. In cardinal systems just just sum some columns (in STAR you have to do this twice). But in ordinal systems you have to do many rounds of counting and eliminations. Look at the current NYC mayoral race. We have only one round counted and they have like 10 more days before round 2 (which is funny because IRV results typically follow the first round results, we expect Adams to win). So look into tabulating Schulze or Ranked Pairs. Condorcet methods require you to run n^2 election because you have to run every pair. Now consider contested elections like what is going on in Arizona. The more complex of a counting system is the more either end can be abused (the original vote or the verification). If it is sufficiently complex a group will easily be able to justify foul play regardless of actual proof because the evidence against the claim is nuanced.

So yes, it isn't hard to explain to voters, but it is difficult to explain how you count the votes. But VSE is only one metric. Like you pointed out max(STAR) is only slightly less than max(condorcet) but min(STAR) has a decent gap over min(condorcet), which also matters. The smaller range on STAR suggests it is more resilient to strategic voting (or voter manipulation). But cardinal systems are not only easy to explain to voters but it is also easy to explain how votes are counted. I should also note that Approval/Score/STAR are monotonic and will not spoil elections (IRV increases spoilage where cardinals decrease). I'll also suggest that if you're a data person you should be in favor of Score and STAR because they are more expressive than any ordinal system because the distance between your preferences isn't constant and thus we can get more fine grained data on voter preference.

If we only look at the VSE metric, condorcet wins, but what makes voting complicated is that this isn't the only metric.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#95
post #44

I've been a proponent of STAR for some time, but today I'm happy to learn about 321. It sounds even easier to explain and implement than STAR (though approval is likely the method with the least friction using existing equipment). I really don't see the appeal of IRV, other than momentum. It's harder to implement. It's not really intuitive why you have to rank them. (I belive) it has higher chance of screwing up ball…

Also it should be noted that IRV actually increases election spoilage, which is ironically one of its main selling points.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#96
post #44

I've been a proponent of STAR for some time, but today I'm happy to learn about 321. It sounds even easier to explain and implement than STAR (though approval is likely the method with the least friction using existing equipment). I really don't see the appeal of IRV, other than momentum. It's harder to implement. It's not really intuitive why you have to rank them. (I belive) it has higher chance of screwing up ball…

> I think 321 most closely matches the political climate in America. People tend to like a candidate, hate them, or "eh, they're fine." I couldn't disagree more. I voted in yesterday's NYC Democratic mayoral primary (13 candidates on the ballot), and there were three candidates I considered "like", but with a very strong preference for the first over the second, as well as the second over the third. In today's politi…

This is an argument for cardinal systems though... (more score/star rather than approval or 321). When ranking you encode in such a way that your preference from one candidate over another is uniform. But in scoring you don't have this limitation. You can express that you REALLY are passionate about 2 candidates but have a slight preference of one over the other, are lukewarm about a few, and really dislike others. Ordinal systems do not allow you to express this.

You're right, passion matters.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Seattle, many of us reached the same conclusion as you did. We’re now trying to change Seattle’s primary elections to use approval voting: https://seattleapproves.org/ Approval voting is extremely effective at capturing voters’ preferences, simple to implement, and incredibly easy to explain - not just the ballot, but how the ballots are tabulated and how the winner is chosen. The entity you linked to, The Center…

> easy to explain What is the simple way to pitch its advantage to IRV without using technical terms? The spoiler effect is simple to explain because we’ve seen it. A hypothetical centre squeeze isn’t. My belief is IRV opens the door to approval voting. (I am still sceptical of it, though I welcome experiments like the one your propose in Seattle.) When approval voting advocates oppose IRV in jurisdictions with plura…

> What is the simple way to pitch its advantage to IRV without using technical terms?

You have 3 candidates that you like in preferential order. A > B > C. But you like A only a little more than B and REALLY dislike C. Ordinal systems do not allow you to express this. When you score, you can say A: 5, B:4, C:0. Approval is just the same thing but with a smaller range and is easy to integrate into existing tools (I don't think that's a great argument though because we should rebuild these tools anyways considering massive security flaws we've consistently found).

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#98
post #2

Looking at the results, it's a wonder that IRV (aka "ranked-choice voting") gets more lip service than STAR and approval voting. These latter two seem obviously and measurably superior. My guess is that it all comes down to a lack of education. Maybe civics ought to be a required course in high school and/or college?

Honestly I think we just need some big name to advocate for STAR (or any cardinal system). IRV really took off after CGP Grey's video and gained WAY more support after Hasan Minhaj's episode. The only places I see people talking about cardinal systems are Hacker News and the Yang subreddit (though lots of armchair experts advocating for condorcet methods because they don't see criteria other than VSE as being important). I would not expect cardinal methods to enter the public discourse until some famous person talks about it.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#99
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OTOH, with ordinal methods you are forced to distinguish between candidates that you think are equally good. Say if you have three candidates, A, B, and C, where A and B are very similar and you like both, though with a slight preference to A, whereas you dislike C very much. With approval voting you'd approve A and B, with score voting (say the vote is an integer between 1 and 5) you could vote A=5, B=4, C=1 (or A=5…

> Whereas with an ordinal system you'd vote A-B-C, but you have no way of 'telling the voting math' that the distance between A and B is much shorter than between B and C. Kenneth Arrow is famous for his impossibility theorem, but he also rejected cardinal systems out of hand, because you can't honestly judge the strength of your own preferences compared to other voters. He argued (pretty well, I thought) that the ex…

1) Arrow's theorem isn't really about voting though. 2) Arrow's doesn't apply to cardinal systems. 3) Arrow said that for voting cardinal systems were probably superior.

From wiki

> Arrow originally rejected cardinal utility as a meaningful tool for expressing social welfare, and so focused his theorem on preference rankings, but later stated that a cardinal score system with three or four classes "is probably the best".

Again note that he's talking about social welfare and not voting.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#100
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IRV has a non-complicate-to-explain problem: you can screw up the ballot and invalidate your vote. > Unlike many single-winner methods, instant-runoff cannot accept equal rankings, and must discard ballots with multiple first-preferred remaining alternatives: such ballots would be equivalent to casting multiple ballots in a plurality election With all-the hubbub on the last election about vote validity, and hanging c…

It's easy enough to have a scanner reject an invalid ballot and force you to fill out a new one. At least in NYC where I vote, you feed it into the scanner yourself. And you've always been able to produce invalid ballots, like voting for two candidates when you're only allowed to pick one. You're describing a UX problem which has UX solutions. It's not even remotely a justification for selecting a democratic procedur…

> You're describing a UX problem which has UX solutions. It's not even remotely a justification for selecting a democratic procedure to express the will of the people.

Agreed but that's far from my only gripe with FPTP and IRV.

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