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Live coverage of the last Shuttle launch (STS-135, Atlantis)

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Re: Live coverage of the last Shuttle launch (STS-135, Atlantis)

#91
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

50 years. The wright brothers flew in 1903, by 1953 there had been tens (maybe even hundreds) of thousands of aircraft built, and millions of people had flown on them. Commercial jet aircraft and supersonic military aircraft were being introduced. Air travel was expensive but within the reach of even the middle class with some savings, 20 million people a year were flying. "Only fifty years", indeed.

Yet after another 50 years flying has not become all that much cheaper. Unlike flying reaching Mach 25 takes a ridiculous amount of energy and there is little reason to suspect it will become cheap in the next 50 years.

Commercial flights are cost-competitive with driving or just about any other form of travel over distances greater than several hundred miles. Tens of millions of people fly per year. An average ticket for a cross-continental trip is extremely affordable even for people in the lowest quintile of incomes. By what definitions has flying not become cheaper in the last 50 years?

As far as manned spaceflight, it's certainly fundamentally more difficult than air travel but that doesn't explain the lack of progress the last 5 decades have seen under NASA leadership. Indeed, we're already seeing the first fruits of a properly open and competitive launch industry, something that hasn't generally been possible for most of the last half century, and it is already beginning to revolutionize manned spaceflight. In the next 50 years if the industry keeps advancing they will have developed streamlined mass produced launch vehicles (Iridium proved that such a thing was possible for satellites, at massive cost savings), single stage to orbit vehicles, and truly reusable launch vehicles, all of which will ultimately bring manned spaceflight into the reach of ordinary folks.

Re: Live coverage of the last Shuttle launch (STS-135, Atlantis)

#92
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet after another 50 years flying has not become all that much cheaper. Unlike flying reaching Mach 25 takes a ridiculous amount of energy and there is little reason to suspect it will become cheap in the next 50 years.

Commercial flights are cost-competitive with driving or just about any other form of travel over distances greater than several hundred miles. Tens of millions of people fly per year. An average ticket for a cross-continental trip is extremely affordable even for people in the lowest quintile of incomes. By what definitions has flying not become cheaper in the last 50 years? As far as manned spaceflight, it's certain…

First off the Median income adjusted for inflation has just about doubled since 1950 so while it has become more affordable relative to income relative to wheat there is little real change. The only quote on cost I had was for 1960 but "A round trip ticket between Cleveland and Washington D.C. was about $75. That's over $400 in today's dollars!" And guess what you plenty of airlines are selling tickets 400$ or more. There are some low cost carriers that cost far less, but it's more a question of lost service and hidden fees than improved technology. (You can easily be flying in a 30+ year old aircraft with some minor upgrades.)

As to reducing the cost to orbit. The shuttle could transport 50 people into orbit with some minor retrofitting in the cargo area. However, there is little reason to have done so because there is vary little demand to send people into orbit. When you get down to it much of the cost of the shuttle program is trying to maximize the utility of old hardware while minimizing risks. If you want cheap you need to set minor R&D improvements aside and focus on volume but there is just not enough demand to really reduce costs.

Re: Live coverage of the last Shuttle launch (STS-135, Atlantis)

#93
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Commercial flights are cost-competitive with driving or just about any other form of travel over distances greater than several hundred miles. Tens of millions of people fly per year. An average ticket for a cross-continental trip is extremely affordable even for people in the lowest quintile of incomes. By what definitions has flying not become cheaper in the last 50 years? As far as manned spaceflight, it's certain…

First off the Median income adjusted for inflation has just about doubled since 1950 so while it has become more affordable relative to income relative to wheat there is little real change. The only quote on cost I had was for 1960 but "A round trip ticket between Cleveland and Washington D.C. was about $75. That's over $400 in today's dollars!" And guess what you plenty of airlines are selling tickets 400$ or more.…

According to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics the price of average domestic airfare has fallen by about 30% from 1975 and about 75% from 1950, in inflation adjusted dollars.

Re: Live coverage of the last Shuttle launch (STS-135, Atlantis)

#94
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First off the Median income adjusted for inflation has just about doubled since 1950 so while it has become more affordable relative to income relative to wheat there is little real change. The only quote on cost I had was for 1960 but "A round trip ticket between Cleveland and Washington D.C. was about $75. That's over $400 in today's dollars!" And guess what you plenty of airlines are selling tickets 400$ or more.…

According to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics the price of average domestic airfare has fallen by about 30% from 1975 and about 75% from 1950, in inflation adjusted dollars.

Even assuming that's correct,* we would still be looking at tickets to LEO in 2060 being significantly more than 250k inflation adjusted to 2010. And further assuming another doubling of inflation adjusted household income which seems even more unlikely LEO is not going to be cheap for the average American any time soon.

*AKA They included things like fuel surcharges, baggage handling fees, average trip length, and quality of service etc.

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