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New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

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Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#91

Post by openasocket »

asdff wrote: post #75
openasocket wrote: post #60

My money is on a foreign hostile entity, but not for a scouting operation, this is an exercise in deterrence. This is someone who wanted to let the US know that they are capable of getting a high-end drone into the country and launch it near important civilian and military infrastructure. Which is also why they would affix it with a bright LED light, they wanted to get noticed and then show off its capabilities. It m…

Why not do it like the U.S. and just show off the weapon on soil with domestic press coverage and not risk a diplomatic incident? You don't have to show your whole hand, iirc when they showed the press the B2 they didn't let them see the rear of the plane.

I think the big capability here isn't the technology, it's that they could get it into the country and deployed over a major air base.

Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#92

Post by nradov »

openasocket wrote: post #60

My money is on a foreign hostile entity, but not for a scouting operation, this is an exercise in deterrence. This is someone who wanted to let the US know that they are capable of getting a high-end drone into the country and launch it near important civilian and military infrastructure. Which is also why they would affix it with a bright LED light, they wanted to get noticed and then show off its capabilities. It m…

Unlikely. Everyone already knows it's possible to smuggle small amounts of military equipment into the US. So what. That kind of demonstration would have zero deterrence value.

Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#93

Post by Workaccount2 »

pope_meat wrote: post #72
10000truths wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We always were in that realm. “Nation states” are not some god-like, invincible entity. They’re groups of people with a budget.

Seeking friends with a budget for nuclear submarines, and hypersonic missiles. I personally got $5 on it.

I'll throw in $20 if I can be the periscope man

Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#94

Post by InitialLastName »

oh_sigh wrote: post #76
openasocket wrote: post #60

My money is on a foreign hostile entity, but not for a scouting operation, this is an exercise in deterrence. This is someone who wanted to let the US know that they are capable of getting a high-end drone into the country and launch it near important civilian and military infrastructure. Which is also why they would affix it with a bright LED light, they wanted to get noticed and then show off its capabilities. It m…

How would deterrence work when no one has any idea who the drone belonged to?

Have you ever played Hearts? That game plays much differently when you know who has the Queen of Spades vs if you don't vs if it's already been played. If somebody has a capability that deters you, it can be more effective in making you play cautious if you don't know who has it.

Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#95

Post by openasocket »

oh_sigh wrote: post #76
openasocket wrote: post #60

My money is on a foreign hostile entity, but not for a scouting operation, this is an exercise in deterrence. This is someone who wanted to let the US know that they are capable of getting a high-end drone into the country and launch it near important civilian and military infrastructure. Which is also why they would affix it with a bright LED light, they wanted to get noticed and then show off its capabilities. It m…

How would deterrence work when no one has any idea who the drone belonged to?

Two thoughts:

1. The public doesn't know, but the same may not be true of US intelligence services. There are various ways to drop hints. Have a colonel pretend to get drunk at a bar and ramble something about drones. Feed a known mole some hints about an operation underway. Maybe a unit stationed on that base recently was involved in some operation the foreign adversary didn't like, and they have a diplomat cryptically say something about reprisals. But most importantly you do it in a way that it isn't definitive proof, or publicly accusing them would require revealing important sources/methods. That way the US can't publicly respond or escalate.

2. Perhaps the goal isn't necessarily deterrence, it's misdirection. Reveal the vulnerability of civil and military infrastructure to attack in a public and embarrassing way, and the US government will be required to take actions to prevent this from happening again. And it's way more expensive to secure infrastructure than it is to attack it. You could get the US to spend billions on securing this infrastructure, which is dollars that aren't being spent on something that could be used offensively.

Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#96

Post by sandworm101 »

openasocket wrote: post #91
asdff wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not do it like the U.S. and just show off the weapon on soil with domestic press coverage and not risk a diplomatic incident? You don't have to show your whole hand, iirc when they showed the press the B2 they didn't let them see the rear of the plane.

I think the big capability here isn't the technology, it's that they could get it into the country and deployed over a major air base.

>> it's that they could get it into the country and deployed over a major air base.

Just like guns, why bother smuggling it in? It would be easier to buy/build it within the US. As for deploying it, anyone can drive a pickup to within range of a variety of US bases. These aren't remote arctic outposts surrounded by tundra. US bases are generally near civilian populations. Nobody would think twice about seeing a pickup truck parked near a base at night. Any number of aviation enthusiasts do this regularly.

Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#97

Post by jwalton »

oxymoran wrote: post #89

How is a “rich idiot” smart enough to build a cutting edge drone but dumb enough to accidentally fly it over an Air Force base? It doesn’t make any sense. If it’s a foreign entity, how do they get it to Arizona in the first place? Why risk starting a war to test out your drone? If China or Russia has this capability, you know damn well the US does too so showing off seems unlikely. And neither of these theories can i…

> How is a “rich idiot” smart enough to build a cutting edge drone but dumb enough to accidentally fly it over an Air Force base?

I think a lot of people here are vastly overestimating what is required to build an RC plane that would outrun a typical helicopter. Most ARF (almost-ready-to-fly - just add your radio and a batter pack) electric-ducted-fan model planes in the $400-$600 range would be able to hit 150-200km/h (see https://www.motionrc.com/collections/rc-jets/products/freewi...). When you jump up to turbine power, it’s a little more expensive, but you should be able to get quite a bit faster. Head over to YouTube and you’ll see plenty of RC planes breaking the sound barrier.

Add a FPV system with a low lux camera (see https://oscarliang.com/flying-fpv-at-night/) and you could fly this around at 10:30 at night (although there are not too many sane RC pilots who would wish to do such a thing.)

This “advanced drone” could be built with entirely off the shelf components for a few grand.

Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#98

Post by infoseek12 »

asdff wrote: post #75
openasocket wrote: post #60

My money is on a foreign hostile entity, but not for a scouting operation, this is an exercise in deterrence. This is someone who wanted to let the US know that they are capable of getting a high-end drone into the country and launch it near important civilian and military infrastructure. Which is also why they would affix it with a bright LED light, they wanted to get noticed and then show off its capabilities. It m…

Why not do it like the U.S. and just show off the weapon on soil with domestic press coverage and not risk a diplomatic incident? You don't have to show your whole hand, iirc when they showed the press the B2 they didn't let them see the rear of the plane.

If it is an exercise in deterrence the actor responsible might see displaying a calculated degree of belligerence as a feature not a bug.

Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#99

Post by MisterTea »

I read through a lot of these UAV articles on thedrive.com and they all appear to really drum up the paranoia angle.

I do see the threat for sure but the over the top hand waving interwoven with available solutions makes me wonder if this is a anti-UAV munitions marketing campaign.

However, we do indeed have a problem. I can see a single drone hovering around a nuclear facility or military base as harmless bit of curiosity. But multiple UAVs hovering for an hour are certainly suspicious.

The wonders of technology.

Re: New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

#100

Post by openasocket »

sandworm101 wrote: post #96
openasocket wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the big capability here isn't the technology, it's that they could get it into the country and deployed over a major air base.

>> it's that they could get it into the country and deployed over a major air base. Just like guns, why bother smuggling it in? It would be easier to buy/build it within the US. As for deploying it, anyone can drive a pickup to within range of a variety of US bases. These aren't remote arctic outposts surrounded by tundra. US bases are generally near civilian populations. Nobody would think twice about seeing a picku…

I wouldn't be surprised if portions of it were bought within the US, or if it was largely made from off-the-shelf components legally imported and then assembled. Unless there were capabilities demonstrated that haven't been made public (Like some new low-power high-intensity jamming) this doesn't seem too far off from the capabilities of a non-state actor. The main reason I think this is a state actor is because of the motivation (terrorists would have actually tried to use it as a weapon to do damage).

It doesn't need to be some super-advanced weapon or capability. Sometimes all it takes is a demonstration to make people aware of vulnerabilities that have long existed. Think about the billions spent on airport security after 9/11, that frankly aren't doing much to prevent future attacks. This incident, and others like it, don't have a body count and haven't provoked a massive public outcry, but they are unnerving people. You can bet funding is going to be diverted to securing airbases from this sort of threat.

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