Live data from Hacker News

The most expensive number in engineering

surjan.substack.com

91–100 of 176 posts

Re: The most expensive number in engineering

#91

Grossly increasing the factor of safety is a subtle way that science fiction stories connote a feeling of very advanced technology. For example in the JJ Abrams movie Star Trek Into Darkness we see the Enterprise operating at depth in an ocean, then dramatically zooming away into space. Then later another ship falls from orbital height and plows through San Francisco without losing its hull shape. In Star Wars the Mi…

Things JJ Abrams touches tend to border on the absurd, but the principle is true in pre-Abrams Star Trek too.

O'Brien sheds a little light on one of the aspects of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaPkSU8DNfY.

  GILORA: Starfleet code requires a second backup?
  O'BRIEN: In case the first backup fails.
  GILORA: What are the chances that both a primary system and its backup would fail at the same time?
  O'BRIEN: It's very unlikely, but in a crunch I wouldn't like to be caught without a second backup.
From a different franchise, I keep thinking about the Ancients of StarGate universe, known for their technology, which could remain fully operational for millions of years. That's the true over-engineering.

(But then I'm thinking, a species that mastered "stasis technology", commonly present in many sci-fi franchises, should eventually be able to make artifacts that can survive indefinitely, at least when not in operation.)

Re: The most expensive number in engineering

#92
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. Although I'd probably also argue that a safety factor probably papers over those kind of problems in many many cases.

But the question is, if you used a probabilistic approach, and tried to model, even very roughly, those things (probability contractor bodges the job in a way inspection doesn't notice: 10%), then would you end up with a safer bridge for the same money spent?

That can be an unbounded black swan event. There are distributions where there is no mean value.

The difference between a square section and welded channels. The difference between 53F and 27F. The difference between putting the waterproofing on before or after the post tensioning anchors. Leaving watertight doors open during a storm.

Re: The most expensive number in engineering

#93
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For the record, Star Wars is not science fiction nor has it ever been portrayed as such. FWIW this is literally the first time I’ve encountered someone claiming that it isn’t science fiction. ( Soft SciFi, to be sure, but still: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/MohsScaleOfScien... )

> FWIW this is literally the first time I’ve encountered someone claiming that it isn’t science fiction. Well, there's Science Fantasy [1]: Jedi and the Force are very much Wizards and Magic. I've heard it called Space Fantasy, too. [1]: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ScienceFantasy

A bunch of classic “golden era” science fiction novels feature characters with unexplained mental powers, like Asimov’s Foundation series, Dune, Niven’s Known Space series, etc.

Those seem like obvious fantasy now, but from about the 1950s through the 1970s, a lot of serious people believed that there were undiscovered powers of the human mind that science was on the verge of discovering or confirming. Mental powers are therefore a common anachronism of sci fi from that era.

Most science fiction stories are going to feature some elements that are essentially unexplained and therefore act like magic in the story. I think most folks would consider 2001 to be science fiction but the powers of the monolith are at least as crazy and unexplained as what the Jedi can do.

Re: The most expensive number in engineering

#94
post #35

The article suggests using a probabilistic failure model instead of a large a safety factor, and explains how a safety factor established in the 1930s affected the cost of the Space Shuttle. But spacecraft might be a special case, where any additional weight is so expensive, and you also expect the models to be especially accurate and manufacturing to be extremely precise. For more everyday civil engineering, I think…

I'll go out on a pretty small limb and say that the vast majority of Civil Engineering failings are not a matter of an incorrect safety factor, but are things that are explicitly not part of it. 1) Blunders. (Many places. You do the math wrong, or approve the wrong shop drawing, and no factor of safety is going to save you). (See the Hyatt Regency Walkway Failure) 2) Inadequate Geotech Info. (Basically every dam fail…

6. Corner-cutting. I consider that distinct from blunders or bad contractors. See: the Pal-Kal construction method.

I consider that not part of the safety factor because IIRC it was basically fudged or outright ignored, often times with building inspectors paid off.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Versailles_wedding_hall_disa...

Re: The most expensive number in engineering

#95
"Safety factors started being formalized in the mid-1800s for bridge building, where factors as high as 6 were used to cover for the massive inconsistencies in the quality of early cast iron."

I'm not a real Civil Engineer but I was a graduate one from 1991 - I'm now a IT bod. Anyway, Civ Eng uses established factors of safety or safety multipliers or safety factors or whatever. Structural steel uses 1.2 I recall - so you work out your worst case (in 100 years - look up tables) bending moment and mult by 1.2. Civ Eng is one thing and despite our bridges still failing after 2000 years of really solid knowledge. Tacoma Narrows (who knew the bloody things fly and shake) or London Millenium bridge - lol - shake, shake, shake the room - BOOM.

The thing about safety factors is that they need to be derived conclusively. In Civ Eng - wood is a bit wayward so the safety factor for it is quite large compared to steel.

I have no idea what you do for space thingies (yes I do) but I would expect my first 50 experiments to blow up - I need to explore the extremities.

If I ran a Space Agency I would say something like: "Soz, we are going to make some cracking firework displays first and then we will know what to avoid."

Re: The most expensive number in engineering

#96
post #50

Grossly increasing the factor of safety is a subtle way that science fiction stories connote a feeling of very advanced technology. For example in the JJ Abrams movie Star Trek Into Darkness we see the Enterprise operating at depth in an ocean, then dramatically zooming away into space. Then later another ship falls from orbital height and plows through San Francisco without losing its hull shape. In Star Wars the Mi…

> For example in the JJ Abrams movie Star Trek Into Darkness we see the Enterprise operating at depth in an ocean, then dramatically zooming away into space. Subverted in Futurama: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GDthiBGMz8

What about a craft like the space shuttle? You have it powered through the atmosphere by a set of powerful rocket engines. The forces on its hull while it is accelerated through the Atmosphere by rocket engines or gravity would seem to be analyzable as atmospheres of pressure. So the Enterprise and Bessie both need to be designed for more atmospheres than 1.0, due to the fact that both ships encounter gaseous environments while under acceleration.

Re: The most expensive number in engineering

#97
(To the OP title: More expensive than disaster?)

Many comments here relate more to one-off design. There is also the medium-high-volume manufacturing end. There, a prototype run might be in the dozens or hundreds of units, more than the entire manufacturing run in other heavy industries.

As the OP hints, "safety factor" is not the only term to use. A design margin (including reduction in margin) can be planned with one or more motivations: safety, reliability, weight, volume, reduced BOM costs, unit costs of repair, fleet costs of repair, logistic and warehouse costs of parts for repair, planned obsolescence, and so on.

Probabilistic design, also realized through "Monte Carlo" analysis, can take into account multiple simultaneous non-linearity in various models, where symbolic or formula-based analysis might fail.

For example (and roughly speaking), if one has millions of miles of over-the-road data, say of wheel-to-road forces or geometric road or track profiles, then one might manage to calibrate the following together: 1) a specific vehicle physical model, including parts tolerances and probabilistic discrete flaws; 2) material cycle-fatigue damage properties; and 3) some set of Weibul-distribution-like parameters as an intermediate in predicting failure rates and "lifetimes." .. AFAIK the kind of business analysis one might do could include predicting how many parts one should overproduce and warehouse (in a one-time batch) to service in-warranty and post-warranty repairs out to N years.

At that scale it can also become sociological. "Safety margin" is a loaded term when it comes to liability and imprecision in intent. You reduced the safety margin, as it says right here?!!

Not a bad article, but there could be a whole article on ramifications of different margin-related wording, high-N statistics, and explicit accounts of simultaneous goals.

Re: The most expensive number in engineering

#98
post #95

"Safety factors started being formalized in the mid-1800s for bridge building, where factors as high as 6 were used to cover for the massive inconsistencies in the quality of early cast iron." I'm not a real Civil Engineer but I was a graduate one from 1991 - I'm now a IT bod. Anyway, Civ Eng uses established factors of safety or safety multipliers or safety factors or whatever. Structural steel uses 1.2 I recall - s…

> If I ran a Space Agency I would say something like: "Soz, we are going to make some cracking firework displays first and then we will know what to avoid."

This is the modus operandi of SpaceX - they just keep tweaking their rockets and launching experimental tweaks as much as they possibly can without risking bankrupcy, as failures teach them more than successes.

Re: The most expensive number in engineering

#100
I've actually used this concept at an old job. When I was given a new project the business people always wanted it done at a particular date, but it was always an unrealistic timeframe. I'd then spend sometime thinking about how long I thought it would take me, but I would always add 2 weeks or 25% to the estimated time, which ever was larger, just to deal with the human element.

This could include changing requirements, poor communication, illness, being blocked by other changes, etc.

I learned that you can get away with giving people extended deadlines as long as you hit them.

Post reply on HN