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Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

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Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#91

Post by bobthepanda »

vladf wrote: post #53
ocdtrekkie wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could've vastly expanded a lot of train systems with the amount of money that's been burned trying to make cars drive themselves. Unfortunately, most new transportation methods that are not trains are just attempts to build trains, while claiming they are not trains and will cost less than trains. But inevitably end up costing as much as trains. Trains.

Is this really true? To be able to build a track you need to have government-level authority (e.g., in GP's example, to build something on its own lane in the road, or to displace people in homes in the way of the track). However, the entities funding SDCs are private.

This isn’t exactly stopping the Boring Company or Loop from making its promises, is it?

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#93

Post by yumraj »

rsj_hn wrote: post #80
dreamcompiler wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's the best car you can buy, electric or otherwise. That's why it baffles me that Musk feels the need to consistently lie about autonomy, because the car is already great without it, and the "intelligent cruise control" which the car does have is convenient and as good as anybody else's. It's as if Apple made the best computers--which some people think they still do--but Tim Cook was tweeting every day abou…

I don't think Musk is intentionally lying about autonomy, this is just his worldview. He truly believes that strong AI is just around the corner and it poses an existential threat to the human race, and by the same token, of course we'll have full self-driving cars as soon as just a few small kinks are ironed out. These beliefs stem from a very strong worldview, and are not attempts at stock price manipulation or som…

> I don't think Musk is intentionally lying about autonomy, this is just his worldview.

I’ll say that’s a rather naive view. It sounds like saying Mark Zuckerberg is not lying about FB and privacy, it is just his worldview that nobody should have privacy, except of course him and his family.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#94

Post by dreamcompiler »

bobthepanda wrote: post #90
dreamcompiler wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's the best car you can buy, electric or otherwise. That's why it baffles me that Musk feels the need to consistently lie about autonomy, because the car is already great without it, and the "intelligent cruise control" which the car does have is convenient and as good as anybody else's. It's as if Apple made the best computers--which some people think they still do--but Tim Cook was tweeting every day abou…

Are we talking about the luxury priced car where everyone complains about quality issues? [1] https://www.thedrive.com/news/34144/the-tesla-model-y-is-alr... [2] https://www.thedrive.com/tech/29200/customers-revolt-as-fix-...

Yep. Our Model Y has had zero issues. Either Tesla got their act together or we just don't hear from the vast majority of Tesla owners who are happy because those stories don't generate clicks.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#95

Post by dreamcompiler »

wutbrodo wrote: post #4
spamalot159 wrote: post #2

I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…

FWIW, I work in AV eng/research and have never heard someone say this. Most of the people I know in the space are pretty clear-headed about how dangerous human driving is. We are generally less optimistic about timing, but that was more true a couple years ago (before all the big cos' 2019 deadlines got pushed back) than it is now. Current timelines seem like an achievable challenge to me, and I don't think I'm unusu…

Two things can be true at the same time:

1. Human-driven cars are dangerous.

2. Autonomous driving (currently) is dangerous.

AD solves some human driving problems (like inattention) but introduces new ones (like driving under trucks).

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#96

Post by HellDunkel »

rsj_hn wrote: post #80
dreamcompiler wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's the best car you can buy, electric or otherwise. That's why it baffles me that Musk feels the need to consistently lie about autonomy, because the car is already great without it, and the "intelligent cruise control" which the car does have is convenient and as good as anybody else's. It's as if Apple made the best computers--which some people think they still do--but Tim Cook was tweeting every day abou…

I don't think Musk is intentionally lying about autonomy, this is just his worldview. He truly believes that strong AI is just around the corner and it poses an existential threat to the human race, and by the same token, of course we'll have full self-driving cars as soon as just a few small kinks are ironed out. These beliefs stem from a very strong worldview, and are not attempts at stock price manipulation or som…

When i remember correctly he came up with the robotaxi pitch when tesla went through a difficult phase. Autopilot feature was going well enough. This came handy to position Tesla as „far ahead“ in terms of technology. Now that every other OEM jumped on the hypetrain it does seem to no longer matter if those bold claims ever become reality or not.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#97

Post by ocdtrekkie »

dntrkv wrote: post #74
ocdtrekkie wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could've vastly expanded a lot of train systems with the amount of money that's been burned trying to make cars drive themselves. Unfortunately, most new transportation methods that are not trains are just attempts to build trains, while claiming they are not trains and will cost less than trains. But inevitably end up costing as much as trains. Trains.

> We could've vastly expanded a lot of train systems with the amount of money that's been burned trying to make cars drive themselves. I'd like to see the numbers on that. Given the cost for the CHSR is around $100B, I don't think that statement is true. The bigger issue here is the US's inability to build fast trains, affordably, and on a reasonable timeline.

Imagine the investment wasted on self-driving cars being spent to solve that problem.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#99

Post by defterGoose »

xyzzy21 wrote: post #87

Yes. We already knew this. Elon is a marvelous marketer and salesman. He's frequently MISIDENTIFIED as the new Edison or Tesla. He's NOT that - both of those men were insanely technical and enough so the jump into technical problems and add value to work being done by their employees. Musk is not that. He's had very little to do with any technical aspects of any of his companies. But there's been plenty of PR spin to…

I mean, he's got a physics degree and can speak knowlegeably about the domains he's in without reading off a script; that's more than you can say about the majority of CEOs in this day and age. He may have moved away from the nitty gritty day-to-day problem solving, but that's par for the course when you're heading successful companies.

Disclaimer: I don't like the dude, he's an edgelord jerk.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#100

Post by klmadfejno »

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #22

I think the big issue is that if you really want autonomous driving over any road, you will likely either need sensors beyond vision or some AGI level model of the world. For example, on the highway, truck infront of you drops some debris. What do you do? It can be dangerous to suddenly swerve or brake, but also dangerous to hit something. What you do In real life is quickly evaluate. You are looking at the object th…

Events like this are rare, and often not handled well by humans. You have 3 basic options, and in reality some mix of all of them.

1) Hit the object 2) Swerve 3) Brake

Hitting the object is almost always a bad idea. On a highway the best option is almost always 2. On an empty road, the best option is almost always 3.

Saying things like "You also look at the traffic beside you and behind you to evaluate risk of braking or swerving" implies that humans are good at this and computers are bad at this. I'd wager humans are bad at this and computers are good at this. And in either case, situations like these represent a small fraction of accidents on the road. If the computer arbitrarily chose to recklessly swerve to the nearest lane every time it would still likely outperform human drivers in terms of safety if it solves the low hanging fruit elsewhere.

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