Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge • Hacker News Board

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#91

Post by samatman » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 1:53 AM UTC

freddie_mercury wrote: post #88

beambot wrote: post #79

Malls could be the best co-working offices. Ample daytime parking, baller food courts, medical facilities, hair dressers, dentists, cafes, movie theaters, entertainment, etc all under one roof.

Malls as coworking space would be literally the arcologies of dystopian cyberpunk. No windows, no natural light, never going outside in the real, natural world. Just one giant homogenised hermetically sealed world. It wouldn't be "best" for many people. Maybe "convenient" for bosses who don't like how much productivity they lose when a Meat Flavoured Productivity Unit has to go get a haircut or imbibe sustenance....

Ok but the perfect isn't the enemy of the good here.

Being able to go for a climate-controlled one-kilometer walk every lunch break is a real luxury for a lot of people, it's way better than a cell in some high-rise near the highway. The mall could have a hackerspace too!

It has potential.

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#92

Post by brudgers » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 1:55 AM UTC

spicybright wrote: post #42

bombcar wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things like this exist in some city centers - but I’ve never seen one in the normal areas malls lurk. The three types usually try to stay some distance from each other unless forced together by exorbitant land prices. The surviving stores that used to be anchor candidates seem to be happy being on their own in a sea of dedicated parking.

Wonder if zoning laws have a big effect on that.

The effect of zoning is vanishingly small relative to the effects of money. An insurance company investing its reserves isn't going to change its risk tolerance just because zoning changes.

These people look at the numbers produced by their model and send their money where indicated. It's why Walgreens and CVS will build on two corners of the same intersection. Both have the same traffic counts and same catchment demographics.

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#93

Post by steelframe » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 1:59 AM UTC

treeman79 wrote: post #56

wil421 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. The more popular new shopping areas I’ve been are outdoor “malls”. Shopping mixed with outdoors, and as you said greenery, art, music and novelties. A lot of indoor malls are dying. I can remember when the same empty places exploded in the 90s.

Lots of parts of the country have unpleasant weather much of the year.

> Lots of parts of the country have unpleasant weather much of the year.

I spent a large chunk of my formative years in a desert climate in the southwest. The sort of place where you would try to stay in air-conditioned spaces as often as possible during the summer. The regional mall was a huge air-conditioned enclosure where people would go just to sit around for hours on end with the occasional stroll through a department store.

In the 30 years since it first opened 2 of the 5 "anchor stores" closed. Other than that it's just been plugging along. One of the reviews I recently read for it was, "A great place to go when you're in a desert and need a mall."

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#94

Post by brudgers » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 1:59 AM UTC

numpad0 wrote: post #59

spicybright wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wonder if zoning laws have a big effect on that.

Probably more like there’s semantics triggered fear in having home literally on top of a supermarket, as opposed to two being mentally separate.

It's the supermarket doesn't want housing on top. If it is the only way to get the location and the location is incredibly good, then the supermarket will accept it. Leasing to a supermarket is incredibly more profitable than leasing or selling housing.

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#95

Post by ethbr0 » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 1:59 AM UTC

samatman wrote: post #91

freddie_mercury wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Malls as coworking space would be literally the arcologies of dystopian cyberpunk. No windows, no natural light, never going outside in the real, natural world. Just one giant homogenised hermetically sealed world. It wouldn't be "best" for many people. Maybe "convenient" for bosses who don't like how much productivity they lose when a Meat Flavoured Productivity Unit has to go get a haircut or imbibe sustenance....

Ok but the perfect isn't the enemy of the good here. Being able to go for a climate-controlled one-kilometer walk every lunch break is a real luxury for a lot of people, it's way better than a cell in some high-rise near the highway. The mall could have a hackerspace too! It has potential.

Not to mention less traffic, as malls tend to be more distributed and closer to suburban housing than CBDs.

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#96

Post by jonny_eh » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 2:00 AM UTC

JoeDaDude wrote: post #64

First they got rid of the music stores. Then bookstores disappeared. Without them, there is no fun in going to the mall, haven't been to one in ages.

All that's left is GameStop, and it sucks.

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#97

Post by redfern314 » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 2:01 AM UTC

flubert wrote: post #30

flubert wrote: post #13

"Malls are dying" seems like a "the suit is back" sort of meme. I've literally been hearing this for 20+ years. And the mall near me seems busier than ever. Someone must be pushing this for some reason. People shorting mall real estate?

I wonder how this has worked out: A Hedge Fund Manager Who’s Shorting America’s Malls (2017) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14209161 ...seems like 4 years is enough time to get a feel for things.

The particular one you linked to ended up behind, but could've been way ahead if they stayed open for another 6 months until the pandemic hit.

Original: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mall-short-seller-shuts-down-be...

Different fund who raked it in: https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a34785141/shopping-mal...

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#98

Post by beambot » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 2:02 AM UTC

freddie_mercury wrote: post #88

beambot wrote: post #79

Malls could be the best co-working offices. Ample daytime parking, baller food courts, medical facilities, hair dressers, dentists, cafes, movie theaters, entertainment, etc all under one roof.

Malls as coworking space would be literally the arcologies of dystopian cyberpunk. No windows, no natural light, never going outside in the real, natural world. Just one giant homogenised hermetically sealed world. It wouldn't be "best" for many people. Maybe "convenient" for bosses who don't like how much productivity they lose when a Meat Flavoured Productivity Unit has to go get a haircut or imbibe sustenance....

Malls can definitely obtain natural lighting if architected properly (eg sky lights and light pipes) -- malls are no different than other commercial offices.

For example: I used to work at GoogleX's "San Antonio station", which was a converted shopping mall, and it had great lighting, even on lower floors.

With multiple employers in same building, you'd also have many more socializing options -- including random colleagues who drop by to run errands.

Besides, what would you suggest instead -- let them turn into suburban blight?!

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#99

Post by hogFeast » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 2:02 AM UTC

flubert wrote: post #13

"Malls are dying" seems like a "the suit is back" sort of meme. I've literally been hearing this for 20+ years. And the mall near me seems busier than ever. Someone must be pushing this for some reason. People shorting mall real estate?

The people shorting malls have already made out like bandits. Mall operators are very close to bankruptcy. Macerich down 85% in the past five years, Simon down 70%, Alexander Baldwin down 70%...it is already over. Once these places lose their main tenant, it all shuts down.

You haven't been hearing it twenty years either. Some people were putting on this trade in the early 2010s but this trade really picked up around 2018/19, when it became apparent that the situation was irreparable. Before that point, the "smart trade" was long malls...most of these people got wiped out (Bill Ackman more than once in TGT than JCP, Lampert in Sears...the trade that worked in 2004 went to zero by 2014).

You can also look at countries which have higher online share of retail, they are further down this path. In the UK, these places are just being boarded up (retail parks, what you would call strip malls in the US are thriving however). One mall near me with tens of units traded for $200k, that was worth $10m a few years ago. The largest mall operator (which owns almost all the top 20 largest malls) is in BK.

But the easy money has been made. Yesterday's news. The money is in redeveloping/converting these places into mixed-use and offices.

Re: Mall department stores were struggling; the pandemic has pushed them to the edge

#100

Post by brudgers » Sat, Apr 24, 2021, 2:03 AM UTC

inopinatus wrote: post #46

spicybright wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wonder if zoning laws have a big effect on that.

The Sid Meier thesis of strictly purpose-oriented land-use allocation is pervasive in the postwar urban planning consciousness.

At the professional level, urban planners meet confidentially with developers and figure out how to make projects happen. What you see is what money wants to do. The professional urban planner's job is to generate economic development. Theories live in the academy.