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Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

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Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#91
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Rolling back" the network means successfully creating a new longest chain that forks off of an arbitrary old block. The further back in time you to "rollback" to, the less probable it is for the 51% to successfully mine all those needed blocks to get up to par with the existing longest chain. Realistically speaking, this sort of attack is highly improbable.

Indeed. See the "bitcoin snack machine" for some hard numbers: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=423.0 > The network nodes only accept the first version of a transaction they receive to incorporate into the block they're trying to generate. When you broadcast a transaction, if someone else broadcasts a double-spend at the same time, it's a race to propagate to the most nodes first. If one has a slight head star…

That has nothing to do with rolling back or 51% attacks. A racing attack and a 51% attack are different things.

Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#92
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you got cause and effect reversed. The correct chain of events is: coal miners slave away to produce coal, which is generally burned to produce heat. Part of that heat is used to run turbines to electric generators[1], and part of the generated electricity is used for bitcoin mining. Does this mean they're slaving away for bitcoin mining? I guess, but only partially. Saying they're slaving away for bitcoin mi…

Without the bitcoin driven demand, there would be less pressure to mine faster than feasible and fewer accidents. The pressure would still be there... but there are cost-related reasons the mining is colocated with the power generation. Seems a reasonable guess that this virtuous cycle of coal-and-crypto mining synergy resulted in some soylent externalities.

I guess we should think about what percent of the power was used for bitcoin mining. If only 1% was used for bitcoin mining that it's pretty hard to say that bitcoin mining was the cause.

Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#93
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And in the event of an attack you just hope they won't target nuclear power plants to recreate Chernobyl and Fukushima?

Nuclear reactors are very much hardened against such attacks, and of course, those were both very different situations. No need to spread FUD about the safest form of electricity in the entire world in terms of deaths per TWh. [1] It's also roughly zero carbon. You know the worst nuclear accident, Chernobyl, killed 4000 people in the full course of time - and we've learned a ton since then. Fukushima killed 1 person.…

Bunker piercing weapons exist and are specifically made to penetrate thick concrete and metal structures.

Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#94
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory yes, but in practice it's rather infeasible to do 51% attacks IRL --- the main constraint is the people not the math. A 51% attack mainly lets you double spend, so you have to: (1) get a lot of coins and spend them on something (2) start mining a fork where that spending didn't happen (but other real transactions continue to happen) --- your hash power will now need to be dedicated to this new fork at the e…

You're thinking too small on the impact--China doesn't need to double spend bitcoins. What they could do is cause a loss of confidence in Bitcoin overnight and collapse the price.

How is that even remotely strategically good for China......?

These miners are probably making USD or some other foreign fiat at the end of the day which adds to the supply of foreign reserves without needing to use trade... And if they're siphoning power to get around currency exchange limits moving wealth abroad then a traditional crackdown to confiscate their equipment would be much more effective (you can't exactly "hide" a mining operation).

Frankly China, with so much mining output, benefits more from seeing crypto moon than crash...

(Also "collapsing the price" is something that can be done (and may have actually even already been done in the past) with far far less effort than an attack...

(As one example, articles pointing out that "China can do 51% attacks" are much more effective in crashing crypto prices... maybe keep an eye out for those

Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#95
post #72

A good reminder that Bitcoin runs on cheap renewables is BS. See also miners buying gas power plants in New York.[1] [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26828479

sure if you're suddenly not counting China's hydropower as renewables suddenly.

- Unless I seriously misinterpreted the news, the significant chunk of hash rate cut due to this blackout is all coal.

- Until hydro and other renewables cover all electricity needs, crypto mining hogging hydro just pushes other non-crypto power demands to fossil fuel.

Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#96

Is bitcoin really decentralized if mining and nodes are centralized?

Decentralization is not a binary choice, as 100% can't be achieved.

At the same time price action over the last 10 years show that it may be decentralized enough to survive and.succeed.

Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#97
post #66

> Significantly, the Xinjiang and Sichuan regions of China combined account for more than 50 percent of the overall Bitcoin mining hash rate I don't get it, doesn't this effectively mean China can force a 51% attack by just strongarming the pools that operate there?

In theory yes, but in practice it's rather infeasible to do 51% attacks IRL --- the main constraint is the people not the math. A 51% attack mainly lets you double spend, so you have to: (1) get a lot of coins and spend them on something (2) start mining a fork where that spending didn't happen (but other real transactions continue to happen) --- your hash power will now need to be dedicated to this new fork at the e…

Why would they be "taken back"?

If the the majority of the network agrees on the the new fork who is to say that isn't the de facto "real" fork?

Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#98
post #66

> Significantly, the Xinjiang and Sichuan regions of China combined account for more than 50 percent of the overall Bitcoin mining hash rate I don't get it, doesn't this effectively mean China can force a 51% attack by just strongarming the pools that operate there?

In theory yes, but in practice it's rather infeasible to do 51% attacks IRL --- the main constraint is the people not the math. A 51% attack mainly lets you double spend, so you have to: (1) get a lot of coins and spend them on something (2) start mining a fork where that spending didn't happen (but other real transactions continue to happen) --- your hash power will now need to be dedicated to this new fork at the e…

Undermining trust in bitcoin is a plausible goal. An attacker with that goal wouldn't stop at one attack.

Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#99
post #59
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> doesn't this effectively mean China can force a 51% attack by just strongarming the pools that operate there? Yes, in theory. There's a coordination problem to get all the pools to do what you want, but if they (or anyone) could pull that off, then yes. So then what happens? If a single entity controls >50% of the hash power of the network, they could start finding blocks with arbitrary (invalid) transactions and a…

inserting invalid transactions is not the double spend issue. If their hash rate is over 50% they can "unconfirm" a confirmed transaction by making a chain with more work on it. This is how the attack plays out in simplified form: Bitcoin is sent to an exchange by the attacker, confirmed, sold and withdrawn for cash. Attacker then makes a chain with more work on it than the chain where the Bitcoin was sent to the exc…

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Re: Bitcoin mining hash rate drops as blackouts instituted in China

#100
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory yes, but in practice it's rather infeasible to do 51% attacks IRL --- the main constraint is the people not the math. A 51% attack mainly lets you double spend, so you have to: (1) get a lot of coins and spend them on something (2) start mining a fork where that spending didn't happen (but other real transactions continue to happen) --- your hash power will now need to be dedicated to this new fork at the e…

Undermining trust in bitcoin is a plausible goal. An attacker with that goal wouldn't stop at one attack.

to what end? Undermining trust in bitcoin isn't a goal on its own - unless you're some mastache twiddling movie villain.

If you're a nation state, and want to undermine the legitimacy of bitcoin, you can easily just institute laws to ban it. Much cheaper.

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