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Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

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Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#91

Post by ithkuil »

eqvinox wrote: post #32
moring wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can somebody give a layman explanation why the debris would stay in the same orbit? I would expect a lot of energy to go into destroying both objects, especially in a head-on collision.

Put quite simply - the energy doesn't go into destroying objects. There's only a very small amount going into heating things up from mechanical deformation [and a bit into spinning], but fundamentally, splitting something in a million pieces just means you have a million pieces that have the same total kinetic energy in orbit. However, they also exchange kinetic energy & impulse with each other, meaning you get a mix…

My mental crutch is "apotheosis" (the high point of something)

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#92

Post by joezydeco »

SethTro wrote: post #11

Leolabs is tracking as well. Their data suggests a slightly lower but >2% chance of collision https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1380549507390259203

The Leolabs Visualizer is pretty amazing. I didn't understand what the red gates were on the map until I looked inward - they're running their own radar sites in different parts of the world to track the objects privately. That's cool.

https://platform.leolabs.space/visualization

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#93

Post by [deleted] »

AlphaGeekZulu wrote: post #13

The two satellites involved are: OPS 6182 (10820, 1978-042A): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=10820 SL-8 R/B (12443, 1981-041B): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=12443 They are on head-on course. With a probability of about 80 percent they will miss each other. With a probability of more than 20 percent they will impact at a speed of more than 50000 km/h in an altitude of 780 km. The two objects are not important…

[deleted]

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#94

Post by londons_explore »

theginger wrote: post #57
AlphaGeekZulu wrote: post #13

The two satellites involved are: OPS 6182 (10820, 1978-042A): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=10820 SL-8 R/B (12443, 1981-041B): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=12443 They are on head-on course. With a probability of about 80 percent they will miss each other. With a probability of more than 20 percent they will impact at a speed of more than 50000 km/h in an altitude of 780 km. The two objects are not important…

Did they miss? Both those links show them still there, but I suspect they are calculated not real time

They missed

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#95

Post by londons_explore »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #27
stonesweep wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does the debris have a degrading orbit and eventually get pulled earthward and burn up on entry? Or is that chaff out there floating around forever just outside the gravitational pull?

In the case of these objects, at ~800km, the time for orbital decay is often measured in decades.

Try millennia...

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#96

Post by londons_explore »

artemonster wrote: post #3

How likely is a massive satellite collapse is to happen in nearest future? Are there any educated guesses/estimates?

The thing to look up is "Kessler syndrome".

It appears we have already passed the threshold at some altitudes, so a satellite collapse will happen in the future, but probably not for hundreds of years.

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#97

Post by andrepd »

dpifke wrote: post #82
superkuh wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was pretty excited when I found out about nitter. After some months I realized that every nitter mirror only stays up for a few weeks before it becomes so popular it's throttled most of the time (like nitter.net). Also, it's 17:41 UTC now... the events of this post should be occuring now. Or not occuring.

It's really easy to run a private instance of your own: https://github.com/zedeus/nitter Mine isn't publicly accessible so never gets throttled.

I have one for invidious, probably should spin one for nitter as well :p

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#98

Post by junon »

iSnow wrote: post #65
junon wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right; do some analysis yourself and tell us your findings ASAP please :)

Snarky replies aren't really helpful as an answer to a question - even if it was in loaded form.

It wasn't snark. This is how peer review works.
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