Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If it's useful, then you have two conflicting data points -- market timing doesn't work, and we're at the top of a big bubble. Market timing does not work over the long-term, and even if we are at the top of the bubble, you can't know we're at the top, but more importantly: it doesn't matter. * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market... > If it does, then yes you should expect to recoup the mon…
Cool. Now do the Japan bubble in the late 1980s.
The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble
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Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cool. Now do the Japan bubble in the late 1980s.
Already did in another comment: * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26138600
Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
Already did in another comment: * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26138600
Thanks. It sounds like you flipped the script and basically endorsed market timing based on the CAPE in that scenario. Maybe I’m misreading.
If I have 60% equities and 40% bonds to achieve my 4% returns, and equities go crazy, such that I've earned a pile of money in that portion of the portfolio such that they now make up (e.g.) 70%, then selling some off to rebalance is not about market timing, but rather about managing risk and not having too many financial eggs in a particular basket.
The Nikkei 225 was 6700 in January 1980:
* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225
It had doubled by February 1986: you should have been taking money off the table as it went up. Take your profits and put it in other places: bonds, international. Further, as the valuations/CAPE went up, you should be expecting future returns to go down.
By the time the Nikkei hit a CAPE of 50, that means expected returns would be 2%: is there any place where one could have put one's money that earned >2%? When the Nikkei hit a CAPE of 94, that means expected returns were ~1%. Japan 10-year bond were making 5% at the same time:
* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01JPM156N
A bunch of money invested in Japan, in 1990, with a 30% JP equity allocation, a 40% JP bond allocation, and a 30% international equity allocation, would have funded a thirty year retirement using the 4% rule just fine:
* https://www.gocurrycracker.com/lessons-from-japans-lost-deca...
Why would anyone be investing 100% anywhere? Regardless of it being the Japan, US (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 3000, etc), or any other other area/country?
Harry Markowitz, who won the Economics Nobel for portfolio theory, said that diversification is the only free lunch in finance.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markowitz
And answer to the "but Japan" quip is: diversification.
Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble
#94This is a great article. Note it's from January 5th, and it's extremely speculative. But certainly at least worth adding to the overall amount of signals that stock investors are thinking. I think I remember someone saying that in 1929 when the shoeshine boys were giving stock advice that that's how someone knew the bubble was about to burst. Lately I've been discussing investment strategies with the people that work…
The quote at the beginning of the article is right: > The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can't have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or you can enjoy it steadily in the distant future, but not both – and the price we pay for having this market go higher and higher is a lower 10-year return from the peak. With a…
If they're buying now when prices are historically high, what does that say about their ability to generate home equity returns in the future?
Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
How about Tesla buying $1.5B bitcoin?
I don't see that as fundamentally different than any other large Forex transaction. A bit unusual for a manufacturing company, but hardly unprecedented, and for all we know this is just a signal that Musk is betting he can call the Bitcoin bubble, rather than an actual hedge against USD.
It's not technically illegal afaik, but it certainly is making a trade because of realities inherent in the trading, rather than the underlying.