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What I Think of Bitcoin

bridgewater.com

91–100 of 209 posts

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#91
- "Since the way Bitcoin works is fixed" Bitcoin's work is not fixed. Since it evolves depending on the wishes of the community You only need the 51% of the network has applied the changes in order to evolve.

- "limited supply they still wouldn’t be worth” I think limited supply is one of the most attractive things of Bitcoin :)

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#92
post #50

This post should be mostly discounted because Ray doesn't really seem to be aware of the true risk of the Tether scam, the biggest component of and risk to Bitcoin's value. For those not aware, Tether is a "stable coin" that issues tokens that supposedly represent dollars and can be used as a medium of exchange. However, it's widely suspected that Tether is unbacked and printing fake dollars and even Tether itself ha…

Excuse me, how is this different from banks, which have money to cover ~1% of their deposit liabilities? Scratch that, US and UK banks, for example, now have 0% reserve requirements.

Banks still have capitalization requirements that are required to supply money for withdrawals, and those have (for several decades, I believe) been far more stringent than the reserve requirements. Reserve requirements are the amount of cash they need to hold specifically in the central bank, whereas capital requirements are a more general notion of cash.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#93

This post should be mostly discounted because Ray doesn't really seem to be aware of the true risk of the Tether scam, the biggest component of and risk to Bitcoin's value. For those not aware, Tether is a "stable coin" that issues tokens that supposedly represent dollars and can be used as a medium of exchange. However, it's widely suspected that Tether is unbacked and printing fake dollars and even Tether itself ha…

All of this shows how the supposed transparency of Bitcoin is useless. The blockchain does not really tell you anything. Price goes up 500%. Nobody knows why. People speculate it is because of Tether or some cabal of Chinese BTC mining tycoons or exchanges faking volume;, or WallSt playing their voodoo with billions worth of BTC.

What other asset has this situation where the reason for the movement of its price is so obfuscated?

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#94
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a boring comment. Unfortunately, this comment reveals more about you as a person than it does about Ray Dalio for putting out that article. Too bad writing pessimistic comments about others on HN doesn't earn you any money, otherwise you could have made some too! I'd love it if your comment could raise the same point as you did, but also include examples of the poor sentences and how it could be better. Then at…

The fact that you chose to comment on a "negative comment" simply by stating that it is "boring" and "pessimistic" is pretty funny.

I understand and appreciate the irony for sure :) I have a small tick that I cannot downvote someone on HN without explaining why, even though the author won't actually know I was the one downvoting. But downvoting without explaining why, feels wasteful. At least now I get to explain why I feel that comment doesn't live up to the HN standard.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it is much more likely that tether is backed by bitcoin and is a ponzi scheme. Price rises seems to be driven heavily by more tether being created out of nothing, leading to another speculation and news frenzy, leading their btc being more valuable and safety from default despite creating more tether. If bitcoin goes down rapidly or people start exchanging lots of tether for bitcoin (because you can't actuall…

> If bitcoin goes down rapidly or people start exchanging lots of tether for bitcoin (because you can't actually get USD from it) I think it will end up exposed To be fair, this already happened. Bitcoin crashed from $22k to $4k, and this was at the height of tether worry.

That happened over the course of a year and I don't think there was a massive (enough) run on tether while it was low, since it didn't stay at that price for very long. There just isn't as much activity when bitcoin is low which I think also works in tether's favor. I think they do have significant btc backing them, just no USD.

I actually wrote a comment about their dynamic two years ago when this happened.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18222578

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#96

MacroVoices #255 with Mike Green discussed another regulatory threat not mentioned in the Bridgewater post. Governments don't have to ban BTC outright. They have other tools for making it wildly unattractive to hold. I can't remember the details but they discussed a scenario where the US government classifies BTC as a commodity and requires K-1 style taxation. That would mean that you would have to pay taxes on any g…

Absolutely. Governments have the power to make things unlawful or taxed even if you have ways to keep that activity secret. Sure, you can pay your builder cash to finish that deck, but it’s illegal. Making things illegal or taxed suppresses that activity.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#97
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tether FUD always returns when there's an influx of a lot newcomers to Bitcoin. It's been debunked over and over. Here's one by Nic Carter that explains why these "takedowns" are completely wrong: https://medium.com/@nic__carter/assessing-bitcoins-liquidity...

According to Tether's own transparency page [0], there's $30 billion of USD sitting in some random bank, somewhere. No, they haven't told anybody where it is, and they have never released an audit. Yes, they are still delaying the NY Attorney General's investigation [1]. We know that at least $850 million has been seized and lost for good [2]. No, they don't report that on the transparency page. [0] https://wallet.te…

By which means are the people paid who organize Tether? If they hand out tether effectively for nothing, who is paying for the infrastructure? If there is no payment, why would one not expect that they intend to run away with those $30 billion one day?

Additionally, if that bank goes bankrupt, the money is not secured.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#98

This post should be mostly discounted because Ray doesn't really seem to be aware of the true risk of the Tether scam, the biggest component of and risk to Bitcoin's value. For those not aware, Tether is a "stable coin" that issues tokens that supposedly represent dollars and can be used as a medium of exchange. However, it's widely suspected that Tether is unbacked and printing fake dollars and even Tether itself ha…

All of this shows how the supposed transparency of Bitcoin is useless. The blockchain does not really tell you anything. Price goes up 500%. Nobody knows why. People speculate it is because of Tether or some cabal of Chinese BTC mining tycoons or exchanges faking volume;, or WallSt playing their voodoo with billions worth of BTC. What other asset has this situation where the reason for the movement of its price is so…

>All of this shows how the supposed transparency of Bitcoin is useless.

This seems like begging the question to me. Was bitcoin ever supposed to be some sort of asset where the pricing is transparent?

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If bitcoin goes down rapidly or people start exchanging lots of tether for bitcoin (because you can't actually get USD from it) I think it will end up exposed To be fair, this already happened. Bitcoin crashed from $22k to $4k, and this was at the height of tether worry.

That happened over the course of a year and I don't think there was a massive (enough) run on tether while it was low, since it didn't stay at that price for very long. There just isn't as much activity when bitcoin is low which I think also works in tether's favor. I think they do have significant btc backing them, just no USD. I actually wrote a comment about their dynamic two years ago when this happened. https://…

It crashed from its peak to $6k in 2 months. The bear market lasted a long time, the initial crash was pretty fast when it first happened..

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#100
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ray isn't the only one, the market is pricing in zero risk of tether collapsing. It trades at no discount to real dollars, anybody with a Coinbase account could convert pretty high volumes of tether to real dollars. I really have no idea why, it seems sketchy.

It looks like Coinbase doesn't support Tether: https://www.coinbase.com/price/tether

but kraken does: https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD
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