The all electric range is so nice to drive. But it makes me realize how loud the ICE is after that kicks in, which now annoys me. I’m excited for when electrics will get a 500 mi range. It will happen.
Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
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Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#92The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…
The 2030 date will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030, then clear economic opportunities to service the future demand for electric cars and charging infrastructure become apparent. This sidesteps the issues with network effects. You don't have to worry about building a charging network before electric cars become widespre…
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city) That's not so far off. Even large cities in North America have no more than a few dozen gas stations (and the UK likely fewer still due to things like London's congestion pricing reducing vehicle count). Once-a-week-or-so fueling doesn't really require a huge amount of infrastructure. That's one of the reasons we're all addicted…
The real issue is charge times. Gas fillups take a few minutes at most - meaning no long lines. Once charges are close to that speed I think EVs will really take off.
A Tesla V3 Supercharger can charge at a rate of about 1000 mph or 1600 kph.
A 240 volt 48 amp home charger home charger can charge a Model 3 at a rate of 44 mph or 71 kph.
A US gas pump can pump a maximum of 10 gallons per minute. If you refill at a station with such a pump, and your car gets 25 mpg (about average for the current US fleet), that's 15000 mph or 24000 kph.
Perhaps we should be pushing for plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) as a transition between ICE and EV. PHEVs have ranges between about 20 and 60 miles on electricity, which for many people is enough to cover all of their normal day to day driving except possibly their commute entirely on electric if they have a place for overnight charging at home, and when they need more range it has the ICE engine.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know why you assert this. It is the concern for literally every person I know who would otherwise have bought an EV, including myself. People like the freedom to take longer road trips without meticulous planning, and without sticking to certain interstate routes which skip the interesting parts of the country.
I never said it wasn't a concern, I said it wasn't the biggest concern. If all the gas stations around your house disappeared, would your first concern be how you are going to get to Indianapolis? No. It's going to be how are you going to get work/school/etc everyday (assuming you don't work in Indianapolis). EVs have an issue where most drivers have to own their own gas-station equivalent. And people without the spa…
If vehicles have twice the range, you only need about half the charging infrastructure.
If I don't have a personal charger at home, 1-2 charges a week while I'm shopping is doable. But that's not something most people will be willing to do daily, away from home, unless it's super convenient.
>Solving the day-to-day charging problem .... comes down to availability of charging.
This might work in idealized theory, but not in practice. From a market-systems perspective, it'll be the opposite, because range is the more flexible, independent variable. More required charges means more constraints, which requires a much more complex (and therefore inefficient) system to solve.
And this is even more applicable when factoring in grid supply/demand/capacity.
Separately: the market isn't always rational. If people say they want the range to drive to Indianapolis, believe them, no matter how irrational that demand is to you. Especially if meeting that requirement (range) also satisfies their others (daily charging).
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
The computer on an EV will tell me the state of the battery. You can ship an ICE over to the best mechanic in the world, and that mechanic won't be able to reliably tell you state of, for example, the bottom end bearings. Not without cracking the engine open, anyway. A compression test will reveal a lot, but it could still break a piston ring tomorrow. That said, I'd not hesitate to buy a Honda with over 100K miles o…
Leak down test, oil pressure, opening the filler cap for blow by, sound... Plenty of accessible options there that will diagnose a bad bottom-end or piston rings. Further, your average Joe can replace crank bearings in an afternoon and many could re-ring an engine with some help from youtube. Your average Honda will need this once every 200-400k miles (14-25 average 14k driving years) with proper oil changes. There a…
Our Scion xB has over 100K miles on it, and our Leaf is one of the first to roll off the line. We tend to keep things. And I'm perfectly happy with the value proposition of even that early-adopter tech. There's a lot more to EV ownership than just range and battery life. Ten years later, I can hardly wait for our next vehicle that we'll drive the wheels off of...and it will be electric.
EDIT: and if you can get the oil pan off a modern car without removing the engine or at least undoing the mounts and $STUFF so it can be jacked up (thereby cancelling any "in an afternoon" of changing crank bearings), you're a better mechanic than I ever was (and I used to do it for a living).
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#96I rarely drive, but can't wait to own one. Where I live (and for a lot of people who live in cities) there is only on-street parking. Will be interesting to see how increased electric vehicle ownership might happen for people without a garage or designated parking.
Might be based on something like this: https://thedriven.io/2020/03/24/siemens-converts-all-lamp-po...
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#97Maybe in the UK, but not where I am. It was -26 this morning. Batteries don't handle such temperatures well. And the nearest civilian airport is 400km away. I haven't seen a single all-electric car in my town since I moved here over a year ago.
Well yes and solar isn’t a great solution for arctic areas in the winter. There’s rarely a single blanket solution that works everywhere.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#98Maybe in the UK, but not where I am. It was -26 this morning. Batteries don't handle such temperatures well. And the nearest civilian airport is 400km away. I haven't seen a single all-electric car in my town since I moved here over a year ago.
Well yes and solar isn’t a great solution for arctic areas in the winter. There’s rarely a single blanket solution that works everywhere.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
And the once in a blue moon they do have to drive more than 300 miles, they'll need to have a spare car to do it. They'll buy their new shiny very expensive Telsa and still have to keep a gasoline-powered car around. This is a non-starter for a lot of people.
> And the once in a blue moon they do have to drive more than 300 miles, they'll need to have a spare car to do it. They'll buy their new shiny very expensive Telsa and still have to keep a gasoline-powered car around. I don't think this is the way EV owners deal with long trips. Most Tesla owners seem to just use the Supercharger network and deal with waiting 20 minutes instead of 5 minutes. After 4 hours driving I…
I also highly doubt that charger networks would scale. Right now there are already busy gas stations by every exit on the highway. Imagine how overloaded they would be if it took an hour to fill up the tank.
A plug-in hybrid still makes more sense. They're far cheaper than any electric car, have all the advantages of an electric car for short trips, and have all the advantages of a gasoline car for long trips.
Electric cars are usable. They are not yet practical.
(By the way, as you may see from my other comments, I consider Tesla a criminal enterprise. It is possible I am dismissing the Supercharger network a little too easily.)
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#100I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.