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The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

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Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#91

Post by svachalek »

drran wrote: post #88
bluGill wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is hard to imangine that smart people in the other solar system won't figure things out. The physics of nuclear is mostly known, which is why Iran and North Korea can have nuclear programs despite efforts to stop it. Anything secret that is exported to a different solar system is reverse engineerable. The first colonists will of course need to bring stuff with them, but it doesn't make sense to assume they won't p…

> The first colonists will of course need to bring stuff with them IMHO, first thing sent will be a universal Assembler, which will produce stuff and clone colonists. If a woman can give birth to a baby in 9 months, we can create a "3D printer" which will self assemble other "3D printers", which then produce mechanisms, computers, and colonists.

Absolutely. Any civilization that can't produce such a thing has no business crossing interstellar distances.

The "protomolecule" from the Expanse series is an even more effective if frightening version of the idea, an interstellar virus that hijacks any local biochemistry to bend it to its purposes.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#92

Post by ghaff »

jhallenworld wrote: post #82
ghaff wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The elements point is an interesting one. I'm trying to imagine what element or group of elements would be hard to do without. The elements related to carbon-based life of course (although hydrogen at least is not realistically scarce)--though I guess life doesn't need to be carbon-based. There are the conductive metals--gold, silver, copper--although aluminum at least could fill in in a pinch. Silicon? Although you'…

Our solar system is supposedly rich with phosphorus, but maybe any solar system with life would also be so blessed.. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17649-9 Another one might be uranium.

Uranium is mostly just for fission though. Assuming the availability of fusion, probably a reasonable assumption given interstellar travel, I'm not sure you really need uranium very much.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#93

Post by cgriswald »

Swenrekcah wrote: post #65
krapp wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kind of information would be worth sending that would also be worth receiving years after the fact?

Everything worthwile you have read in books or on the Web that was written >X years ago is worth transmitting X lightyears

I get your point, but I don't think this answers the question. The first part of the question is defining what it means to be 'worthwhile.'

Information itself does not have inherent value. If you send a colony information on how to create an advance polymer, but the colony lacks a use for it, the requisite knowledge, the requisite tools, the requisite knowledge to craft the tools, or the requisite materials, your transmission isn't 'worth it'. You'd be better off not sending the information (possibly in favor of sending the requisite information).

The second part of the question is 'How do we know what will be worthwhile in advance?' It's easy to look back X years and say "Yes, this information was worth carrying forward into the future." (On Earth, it's even easier, because carrying that information forward is dirt cheap.) It's a much harder problem to figure out what information is worth carrying forward at the time you have to make the decision and when the costs are much higher.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#94

Post by dang »

ryandrake wrote: post #63

Previous discussion was interesting, too: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17534950

That one was 2018. Also 2018 (1 comment): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18216631

2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13064504

2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8937197

2009: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=818706

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#95

Post by jhallenworld »

ghaff wrote: post #92
jhallenworld wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our solar system is supposedly rich with phosphorus, but maybe any solar system with life would also be so blessed.. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17649-9 Another one might be uranium.

Uranium is mostly just for fission though. Assuming the availability of fusion, probably a reasonable assumption given interstellar travel, I'm not sure you really need uranium very much.

You can use it to make plutonium for bomb pits. So far the only viable fusion devices are H-bombs triggered by such pits.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Orion_(nuclear_propuls...

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#96

Post by trailingComma »

Ekaros wrote: post #40
koheripbal wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

Also leads to questions of development. How long until anything you ship is considered obsolete. On systems close by things aren't so bad if we are talking of a few years. But with tens of years, whole thing comes rather questionable. It is old tech when it arrives, and I can't even imagine the lead times. On other hand new "new old stock", is quite interesting proposition. As items would be old stock, but still in b…

Interesting.

There would effectively be a ripple pattern on what counts as new, originating from the source. This ripple pattern would not only apply to physical goods, but also the information about how they were manufactured.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#97

Post by Swenrekcah »

cgriswald wrote: post #93
Swenrekcah wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything worthwile you have read in books or on the Web that was written >X years ago is worth transmitting X lightyears

I get your point, but I don't think this answers the question. The first part of the question is defining what it means to be 'worthwhile.' Information itself does not have inherent value. If you send a colony information on how to create an advance polymer, but the colony lacks a use for it, the requisite knowledge, the requisite tools, the requisite knowledge to craft the tools, or the requisite materials, your tra…

That’s true. There would be a considerably higher bar for “worthwhile”.

But I got to imagine that by the time interstellar trade would be an option, there would be some very valuable blueprints of autofactories and other goods, operating systems and other software with centuries of real-world proofing, and other stuff you’d like to get without doing all the trial and error yourself.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#98

Post by jaybrendansmith »

dustingetz wrote: post #80
samizdis wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Brit who reads the NYT and knows Krugman mainly by his writing there, I found that Wiki piece enlightening and fascinating. I will make an effort to read him more widely. Thanks. FWIW, I also enjoyed reading his latest NYT piece for its substance, observation and its humour: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/opinion/reagan-economy-co...

You should also read his critics, there's a whole podcast dedicated to picking apart his weekly column

They do that podcast because they know he's right about most everything ... and it angers them and their patrons.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#99

Post by asciimov »

koheripbal wrote: post #14
messe wrote: post #2

Abstract: > This paper extends interplanetary trade to an interstellar setting. It is chiefly concerned with the following question: How should interest on goods in tranist be computed when the goods travel at close to the speed of light? This is a problem because the time taken in transit will appear less to an observer travelling with the goods than to a stationary observer. A solution is derived from economic theo…

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

People have the tendency to desire things that are rare, unique, or beautiful. Anything from an alien world would have value to somebody here.

You could buy up a bunch of junk and sell it off as curios. I'm sure people would line up to have the only blanket made off world.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#100

Post by simonebrunozzi »

elteto wrote: post #74
koheripbal wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

Spice is only produced in a single place in the entire universe.

You beat me to it, and therefore you deserve my upvote :)
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