Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is some other point I heard recently on Twitter - the appearance of new variants with increasingly faster speed of spread (BTW, if anyone remembers, there was a mutation in Australia, which had shorter incubation - 8 HOURS), may quite soon cause rise of true strains, and, it might potentially lead to the ADE, when suboptimal vaccines will make disease much worth instead of easing it.
> 8 hours That seems weird, to be kind. Source?
Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
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Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
There must be some very special political reason for keeping borders with UK open, so even Fauci seem to approve it. I wonder what is it?
Any new precedent for completely closing borders between developed nations for any reason is bad. Because it creates a “we did this before.” Even if the scale or details of circumstance are different—such as Clinton’s pardoning of his brother in minimizing Trump’s choices. Another reason is exceptions cause outrage. And there may be many instances of diplomatic or other government travel that needs to happen or happe…
Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
30% of people infected not able to walk a block without losing breath and being exhausted for a day — that’s enough evidence to say the risk profile has changed. Infection rate does not change outcome of recovery (unless it’s resource constrained like vents or meds) and to that point — we’ve walked back the immediacy of vents because they were actually harmful to recovery. So technically the resource management argum…
Where is that 30% coming from?
My gut feeling tells me this pandemic is suffering from a similar phenomenon in user interface latency. The research shows that if the latency is under a few hundred milliseconds, we believe that we are in control of the device and our cause and effect matters. However, if the latency is longer than some hundred millisecond mark, we think the device is under someone else’s control and that our cause has no effect on the system — though in fact, it is the direct cause.
To me, a pandemic kinda follows the same thought — if the disease isn’t having a direct, somewhat immediate effect (intuition says a couple days) to our actions, then it’s hard to issue broad, population level behavioral change that comes with direct costs to life and property - it’s just beyond the timeline for us to accept our actions (not wearing a mask or not distancing) as meaningful inputs to the pandemic system.
Personal opinion: I have no trouble wearing a mask even after having covid, but the current gov’t approach is 100% not the way I’d approach this issue. I would approach the mask mandates and business shutdowns this way only if the disease symptoms were severely impacting (so that’s my symptom description with walking a block) a large set of the population (so that’s the 30%, no age brackets needed) — and to me, that number is about 1 in 3. Now the counterpoint to this, is that if there is a tipping point in the proposed pandemic that once it gets to a certain spread, it becomes that 1 in 3 statistic - but I digress, you get the point I believe.
Edit: to tie this all together — there’s a lot of talk about increased sanctions from this new variant — but if the severity of symptoms do not change, only the transmissibility - it is a dangerous seed to sow amongst an already incredulous population.
Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes it does. The disease would have been eradicated a long time ago if it didn't have asymptomatic transmission. (see: SARS and MERS)
So you're saying the studies are all wrong based on your a priori reasoning that interventions so far have failed? Make a convincing study to disprove them.
Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
The UK is no island?
> The UK is no island? An island that has high-speed railway connections to Europe is not exactly isolated from the world, not to mention it's ferry connections with multiple neighboring countries in mainland Europe. Additionally, Great Britain has about 3 times the population of Taiwan, and it's urban centers have between 5 and 7x the population of Taiwan's largest urban centers.
Of course a total closure would be a last resort, because that would cut off imports of things like fresh fruit, but it's been possible to get 20-minute pinprick blood tests since April (admittedly with lower accuracy than PCR tests) - the government simply decided measures like testing everyone at the border and enforcing mandatory self-isolation were not priorities.
Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
#96Perhaps this is just the normal operation of American media to exaggerate the negative side of the situation? [2]
[1] https://nextstrain.org/sars-cov-2/
[2] PDF link: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28110/w281...
Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
Any new precedent for completely closing borders between developed nations for any reason is bad. Because it creates a “we did this before.” Even if the scale or details of circumstance are different—such as Clinton’s pardoning of his brother in minimizing Trump’s choices. Another reason is exceptions cause outrage. And there may be many instances of diplomatic or other government travel that needs to happen or happe…
Could you elaborate by which moral principle you come to the conclusion that a vague slippery slope and even more vague outrage is more important than stopping a pandemic with hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths? Most moral systems of my acquantance are based on a hierachy of values that puts saving human lives over just about anything.
False. While not explicitly stated there is a threshold usually measurable in money spent after which saving life is considered of being "not worth it". Ford Pinto case that went through the courts I think can serve as a very good particular example where cost analysis made it legal to allow otherwise preventable deaths.
Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
I feel we (US) should absolutely be closing the border to the UK, Japan, Italy and whoever else has the new strain/variant. Why would we wait on this when the evidence suggests the new version is more infectious?
There must be some very special political reason for keeping borders with UK open, so even Fauci seem to approve it. I wonder what is it?
The UK has an upcoming COVID vaccine (the Astra-Zeneca/Oxford one) that may prove useful in the near future. Cut off the UK from the rest of the world and the rest of the world can't benefit from it.
Also, it's almost certain that the UK strain is in the US already, and the US is shit at dealing with pandemics once they're on our soil. Border closures only work if your test/trace/isolate institutions and compliance with social distancing is good enough to eradicate the virus from within your borders; they prevent reinfection in that case. The US has shown we're completely incapable of that, so it really doesn't matter.
Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
I feel we (US) should absolutely be closing the border to the UK, Japan, Italy and whoever else has the new strain/variant. Why would we wait on this when the evidence suggests the new version is more infectious?
There must be some very special political reason for keeping borders with UK open, so even Fauci seem to approve it. I wonder what is it?
Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
Copy Taiwan. No country has been dealing better with Covid than Taiwan. No lockdown, and > 200 days without new Covid case [1]. Taipei had daily direct flights from Wuhan, and the Diamond Princess mooring near Taipei. They told the world early on [2] how they did it. Summary: Border closure, contract tracing, testing and controlled quarantine for those testing positive . It's worth reading [2] to realise how swiftly,…
that's because it's an island. All the islands are doing better than whole continents. You can't contain it unless you go full bore like the chinese - locking people into their homes.
And, of course, China has more land borders than any other country in the world, and it's managed to engineer the most drastic turnaround of any country in the world.
Having a small number of entry points is useful to limit initial inoculations, but internal policy and cultural cohesion are key for preventing the explosion of any successful inoculation into national disaster, regardless of a polity's geography.