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In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

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Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like the 80s were more fun. We had Miami Vice, MacGyver, The A-Team, Knight Rider, and Battlestar Galactica back then. And homes were still affordable places to live in.

That $40k home isn’t so cheap when you make $13k and interest rates were 11-15%. My entire extended family mostly bailed out of NYC because they bought houses for $10-25k in the 70s and sold for 20x in the late 80s. That profit gave that generation a vault up the ladder and the prime the pump mortgage policy made a few rich.

Interest rates and home prices move in opposite directions.

Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like the 80s were more fun. We had Miami Vice, MacGyver, The A-Team, Knight Rider, and Battlestar Galactica back then. And homes were still affordable places to live in.

That $40k home isn’t so cheap when you make $13k and interest rates were 11-15%. My entire extended family mostly bailed out of NYC because they bought houses for $10-25k in the 70s and sold for 20x in the late 80s. That profit gave that generation a vault up the ladder and the prime the pump mortgage policy made a few rich.

> That $40k home isn’t so cheap when you make $13k and interest rates were 11-15%

-However, if interest is at 11-15%, chances are inflation was in the high single digits - so as long as wages stayed reasonably level (in real terms), you weren't too bad off.

(In 80s Norway, my parents paid nigh on 20% interest on their home loan - but inflation hovered around the 10-12% mark and you got a 100% tax deduction for interest payments, making debt a good deal for a lot of people. Hence, people borrowed more money than ever before as credit was effectively free. Stop me if you've heard this one before.)

What could possibly go wrong? Sigh.

Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#93
post #65

Whenever the high crime rates in the 70s-90s is brought up I like to remind folks this was likely an aberration with a specific environmental cause (lead), rather than representative of human nature. This [1] is an eye-opening roundup of ~25 major studies that support the lead-crime hypothesis, including comparisons across countries & cultures. The evidence is pretty overwhelming and certainly changed my perspective…

Unfortunately, homicide rates in some U.S. cities are nearing (and in some cases eclipsing) their early 90s highs. As I often do, I’ll use St. Louis as an example here, because it’s the city I happen to be most familiar with, but this is happening all over. I completely bought the story you’re telling and never thought we’d ever see homicide rates matching the gang-war carnage of early 90s St. Louis, but we’re blowing past those rates, in fact.

That’s not to say the lead story is bunk, but, sadly, I don’t think you can draw the conclusion that those earlier rates were uniquely aberrant.

https://www.officer.com/command-hq/technology/computers-soft...

Edit to add this link: https://www.vox.com/2020/8/3/21334149/murders-crime-shooting...

Don’t get too focused on St. Louis, in other words; as I said, homicide rates are up all over the country.

Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#94
post #20

When pundits --on either side of the pollical spectrum--talk about how bad America is or how things are on the verge of collapse societally, show them stats such as this. By almost every metric, as bad as things may seem, they were objectively worse decades ago. Yeah, it feels like people are angrier than ever, especially online, but Twitter is not real life. A combination of increased tech surveillance, longer priso…

It's not just bank robbery. Every crime category is now much lower than it was in 1990, in every jurisdiction of the USA. Even if you take a city that people think is ridiculously dangerous, like Camden, New Jersey, the homicide rate was triple 25 years ago.

I keep hearing that crime in rural areas has been going up and that now even cake wrangling is a problem liked in old wild west movies. Your general point that on a lawyer scale we are safer than ever stands

Best source short googling could find: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nothing-but-you-and-the-cows-an...

Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#95
post #67
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just bank robbery. Every crime category is now much lower than it was in 1990, in every jurisdiction of the USA. Even if you take a city that people think is ridiculously dangerous, like Camden, New Jersey, the homicide rate was triple 25 years ago.

Not just in the US. Also in Europe and most of the developed world. Violence peaked in 80's - 90s and then started to decrease dramatically. Lead–crime connection is the strongest explanation. Past lead exposure functions as a predictor for criminal activity. Crime starts to drop in every country after the use of leaded gasoline is forbidden. New evidence that lead exposure increases crime https://www.brookings.edu/b…

While the lead theory may indeed be true, one other thing has changed in almost all areas of the world.

Birth rates.

And with declining birth rates, comes a decline in the number of youth, meaning "more of the population" is of an older age. Men are typically at their most aggressive when young adults, and those which have started families, have a different perspective on life.

Note: not saying the above is the cause, but I do believe it to be a valid theory.

edit: it is also plausible that multiple things cause one effect.

Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#96
post #20

When pundits --on either side of the pollical spectrum--talk about how bad America is or how things are on the verge of collapse societally, show them stats such as this. By almost every metric, as bad as things may seem, they were objectively worse decades ago. Yeah, it feels like people are angrier than ever, especially online, but Twitter is not real life. A combination of increased tech surveillance, longer priso…

It's not just bank robbery. Every crime category is now much lower than it was in 1990, in every jurisdiction of the USA. Even if you take a city that people think is ridiculously dangerous, like Camden, New Jersey, the homicide rate was triple 25 years ago.

Unfortunately, this talking point (one I’ve put to good use over the last 20 years) is on shakier ground recently. Crime rates have have been rising for several years now in many U.S. cities and in some cases they’ve eclipsed the 90s highs.

https://www.officer.com/command-hq/technology/computers-soft...

Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#97
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait wat? These are legal somehow in USA? Can you please trace how and prove it with links?

Automatic guns became regulated in the 1930s, and you need approval by the ATF to own them and they need to be registered. They're in a similar category as bombs, rocket launchers, and whatnot. They are strictly regulated and the government basically knows where each one is at all times. In 1986, they stopped accepting new registrations for automatic guns. So there's a fixed supply of legal automatic firearms that no…

Just a nit pick: the government only knows where each item is so long as the owner has reported it moving around, as required per ATF laws. Wanted to mention this because someone may imagine there is a GPS attached to lower receiver of FA. If you travel with your fully automatic you need to report it to your local sheriff office (stating purpose as well); also when you move to a different city/county/state.

Another nit pick: the approval is not some sort of interview or questionnaire as of why you need it. There is so-called ATF stamp (i.e. $200 for silencer) than you need to submit altogether with FBI fingerprints. These days mojority of ATF applications is registered thru "trust", instead of an individual. This creates all sorts of issues for LE in case they want to run extra background on you etc. So 90-something % of people chose $50 ATF "trust" that Sheriff cannot technically decline over the other option which is petition as individual and getting close to 100% chance of denial. The biggest hurdle is not some LE not liking your tattoo, its that ATF has a year long backlog. So you pay for your FA $25,000 today but its only delivered to your local licensed gun store, and they won't let you pick it up until ATF sends them document with green light. That take sup to 1.5 year these days. You can come and touch it and take few photos but they will not allow you to load it of course, or to take it out (including shooting range).

Finally, as OT mentions fixed supply, a so-called lower receiver of a fully automatic gun, a piece of metal not much bigger than a door handle (which does not even have any fancy engineering) is literally the most expensive piece of metal that you can buy on American soil. Some examples in extremely good shape go for $35,000 these days (check gunbroker dot com)

Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#98
post #72

Yeah, many of us that grew up in SoCal recall the heist that led to the so called 'assault weapon' ban, it was completely legal to have a long barrel rifle with 30 round magazines in CA prior to that--they could be open-carried if not loaded back then if I recall correctly, too. This was around the time of the LA riots in the 90s, too... which in my mind all happened at the same time as I recall being a kid sat in fr…

>And while I personally have no desire to live in CA anytime soon, except the occasional visit, I'm glad so many decided to leave since COVID. In a decade or two it may look like and feel as it did when I was a kid in the 90s and I may be tempted to go back. A bank robbery every hour? And I thought my nostalgia for the leaded gasoline and burning asbestos tram breaks smells was odd.

> A bank robbery every hour?

More like a reminder that primitive tendencies can revert Society back to its violent mean really quickly and that in turn instilled a need to want to preserve what we have and build resilient communities to that end as we all felt vulnerable to that ever-present danger.

The fact that no one speaks to their neighbors now is a stark contrast to my childhood in the late 80s and 90s where every kid on the block was a part of the after school 'clique' in one way or another and we looked out for each other so we helped one another in times of need with no real hesitation. It was common to have parents drop off the neighbors kids at different school in exchange for a place to hang out after school and place at the dinner table that night while the parents worked OT etc... This was rotational and we often were at each others homes on different days of the week.

Bi-monthly neihborhood bbqs/potlucks were typical things and were way less tense then some mandated HOA sanctioned community watch meeting where people just snitch on each other and was more a casual event to eat and build bonds share a dish from your families native land with our local neighbors. Many of those people had to leave as things got more and more expensive as time went on and it was a somber experience even to this day.

Then, to me, it abruptly went completely away in the 2000s when ignoring your community completely became normal, and I'm guilty of this, too; I no longer wanted to be a part of the new crowds or integrate into the new ones and sought refuge Online instead as those crowds that were made up of 'less interesting people from somewhere else' so unless we had specific and obvious interests aligned I never bothered, and even then it would be short lived as they were built on very fickle forms of self-interest.

And this persisted until I left CA for the first time.

Again, its probably all survivor bias, and I knew way too many kids in the neighborhood or not far away who died due to gang violence (the shootings at the counter strike internet cafes were particular bad in my area [0]) so I"m not trying to glamorize that aspect. Its just that much like in places with incredibly cold and snowy winters you learn to appreciate one another and their roles in your Life, and since SoCal has perfect weather nearly all year around this was the closest thing that made us see past our superficial differences, and somehow latently knowing it could all go away in a flash gave a stark reminder of how valuable and integral that is to one's quality of Life. You hear this a lot amonst the Korean survivors of the LA riots when the Police abandoned them and left them to fend for themselves, that really hit hard for me and was what made me look past my previously held prejudice of foul smelling kimchi and started eating, cooking and enjoying their cuisine.

> And I thought my nostalgia for the leaded gasoline and burning asbestos tram breaks smells was odd.

I'm a big proponent of EV in a large part because I recall how light headed and nauseating I'd felt riding in the tailgate of a 70s pick up truck on the way to the local to in-n-out or to AM/PM as well as seeing images of the smog of LA would creep in on bad days and the poor air quality all year round was most of my Life as a kid. I don't desire for any of that, despite a large part of my career being tied to the Auto Industry I'm glad we're seeing EV taking over as I remember how orange and brown the sky looked back then.

0: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/jan/02/usa.duncancamp...

Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#99

When pundits --on either side of the pollical spectrum--talk about how bad America is or how things are on the verge of collapse societally, show them stats such as this. By almost every metric, as bad as things may seem, they were objectively worse decades ago. Yeah, it feels like people are angrier than ever, especially online, but Twitter is not real life. A combination of increased tech surveillance, longer priso…

I think prison sentence length has generally been shown to be not very effective as a deterrent? My impression is that for most crimes the marginal effect of increasing the penalty by an additional year in prison is just to remove potential offenders from the free population without much decreasing the risk of any particular person offending. (And the sentences for bank robbery are long enough that by the time you get out you're too old to want to commit again anyways.)

Re: In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour (2019)

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a point of clarification for those not familiar with the heist, the weapons used were -not- legal in CA or the US. It was also during the time of the Federal Assault Weapons ban. They were not owned nor able to be owned legally during that time. It was also the inspiration for Heat’s shootout!

> Just a point of clarification for those not familiar with the heist, the weapons used were -not- legal in CA or the US. It was also during the time of the Federal Assault Weapons ban. They were not owned nor able to be owned legally during that time. Only semi-correct, they had full-auto AK47s and extended mags, all of which at the time could be purchased and legally owned with a special stamp by the ATF [0]. As a…

Pretty much all NFA items are banned in California, even with a tax stamp. I believe that was already true at the time
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