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New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

bbc.com

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Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#91

Post by wongarsu »

sradman wrote: post #45

VUI – 202012/01 on Wikipedia [1]: > The first Variant Under Investigation in December 2020 (VUI – 202012/01), also known as lineage B.1.1.7, is a variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The variant was first detected in the United Kingdom in October 2020 from a sample taken the previous month, and it quickly began to spread by mid-December. It is correlated with a significant increase in the rate of CO…

It's not just that there is an increase in cases after the mutation appeared. It's that in the regions where this mutation is prevalent there are many more cases than in other parts of the same country (and in fact case numbers are growing in regions with this variant and falling elsewhere). The other hint is that the new mutation is becoming the prevalent strain in south-east England, which on it's own would already indicate that it has an evolutionary advantage over other strains that allows it to outcompete them. Combined with everything else we know it seems clear that this advantage is faster spread.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#92

Post by jmnicolas »

detritus wrote: post #70
LatteLazy wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they alread…

On my walk to work this morning, I detoured down a local main street, curious to see what shops were considering themselves 'essential' and remaining open. Apparently this time around, travel agents and jewellery sellers have added themselves to the list, with a few barbers clearly operating illicitly behind half-drawn shutters. I was bemused by the very chi-chi local middle class deli near my home insisting they'd b…

> UK-dwellers' sense of entitlement to 'freedoms'

Seriously?

We (the West, I'm not from the UK) are losing our freedom at an unimaginable speed even a few years ago and you think freedom is negotiable? I find this appalling how easy we ease into a dictatorship everywhere in Europe.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#93

Post by LatteLazy »

adwww wrote: post #80
detritus wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On my walk to work this morning, I detoured down a local main street, curious to see what shops were considering themselves 'essential' and remaining open. Apparently this time around, travel agents and jewellery sellers have added themselves to the list, with a few barbers clearly operating illicitly behind half-drawn shutters. I was bemused by the very chi-chi local middle class deli near my home insisting they'd b…

Re the deli and other quasi essential shops, it would seem unfair if they closed when you can still buy your fancy cheese and olives in a supermarket.

The issue isn't really whether that shop is essential. The issue is that the greeting card store next door is also open, because they've decided they're essential. And none of these stores (including the super market) is enforcing mask requirements because none of the others are and they don't want to be the only one.

In 1000 little steps you are suddenly miles away from a real lockdown. You're basically BAU, but the pub is shut ever other week (unless you buy a scotch egg in which case it is also essential).

I don't care if people are eating gourmet olives. But we need to realise that making excuses for doing nothing is still doing nothing.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#94

Post by sgt101 »

lol768 wrote: post #67
LatteLazy wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they alread…

> I've posted elsewhere that my cynical view of the UK gov approach is that they are talking tough and doing nothing. So maybe I'm biased? It's felt like this with all of the tiers to be honest. They just don't go far enough and the populace is fed up with taking much heed of the rules too. The November "lockdown" felt very, very different to March when the roads etc were quiet - and it actually felt like people were…

Schools were still open, and building sites - which made a very significant difference to movement and traffic.

However, if you look at the graphs the dynamic of virus growth did seem to be significantly changed by the intervention.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#95

Post by jmnicolas »

rubyist5eva wrote: post #63
arcturus17 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds scientifically rigorous.

About as rigorous as the fear mongering in the media right now.

I almost stopped commenting about it on HN, it feels like a wall of downvotes if you don't agree with the mainstream opinion.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#96

Post by sgt101 »

simonbarker87 wrote: post #73
lol768 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've posted elsewhere that my cynical view of the UK gov approach is that they are talking tough and doing nothing. So maybe I'm biased? It's felt like this with all of the tiers to be honest. They just don't go far enough and the populace is fed up with taking much heed of the rules too. The November "lockdown" felt very, very different to March when the roads etc were quiet - and it actually felt like people were…

There was a decent drop in cases in November from what I can see. You’re right though, the first lock down felt very different. Sadly the rules are laxer than they should be but the government can’t enforce the rules effectively so are putting in enough grey-area that people can sort of decide for themselves. Sadly people are very short term focussed and unable to make the most of the situation and instead complain a…

People are very short term focused on things like; not losing their houses, not losing their businesses, maintaining their families, maintaining their mental health, looking after children.

I don't know your situation, but I have lived a very isolated existance for the last 9 months because I am able to. MANY people I know are not in this position.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#97

Post by iso1631 »

LatteLazy wrote: post #72
lol768 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've posted elsewhere that my cynical view of the UK gov approach is that they are talking tough and doing nothing. So maybe I'm biased? It's felt like this with all of the tiers to be honest. They just don't go far enough and the populace is fed up with taking much heed of the rules too. The November "lockdown" felt very, very different to March when the roads etc were quiet - and it actually felt like people were…

I have to be careful I don't wander into conspiracy theories but... I'm fed up because so many people flout the rules with no consequences. I suspect that the lack of consequences is intentional. If everyone flours the rules, the economic hit will be smaller and Bojo can claim he did something and its not his fault no one listened. The government have created a situation where the only logical action for normal peopl…

> I'm fed up because so many people flout the rules with no consequences.

Been that way since Barnard's Castle.

The latest decision that says MPs can see their siblings for Christmas Dinner on the 25th, but a Nurse working on the 25th can't see their parent with terminal cancer for dinner on the 26th, will hopefully be ignored.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#98

Post by iso1631 »

oliwarner wrote: post #81
gns24 wrote: post #43

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…

It was only a lockdown in name. Schools were in. Shops were open. Ministers have even been supplying pubs with methods to skirt the rules (scotch eggs ffs). Not saying it's not bad, just that very little is actually being done to prevent the spread. Govt care more about keeping people in work.

Yet it worked well. In Cheshire (not badly hit), daily cases halved between the start of lockdown and end, having doubled in the previous month. In Cumbria it was even more of a drop

Overnight covid paitents in the NW went from a peak above that of April in Mid November (i.e. had caught it in October), dropping to 70% of the peak a month later, same in NE+Yorks.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#99

Post by LatteLazy »

jmnicolas wrote: post #92
detritus wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On my walk to work this morning, I detoured down a local main street, curious to see what shops were considering themselves 'essential' and remaining open. Apparently this time around, travel agents and jewellery sellers have added themselves to the list, with a few barbers clearly operating illicitly behind half-drawn shutters. I was bemused by the very chi-chi local middle class deli near my home insisting they'd b…

> UK-dwellers' sense of entitlement to 'freedoms' Seriously? We (the West, I'm not from the UK) are losing our freedom at an unimaginable speed even a few years ago and you think freedom is negotiable? I find this appalling how easy we ease into a dictatorship everywhere in Europe.

It's interesting that no one seems to give a shit about real freedoms like free speech or democracy, detention without trial or access to lawyers. But when you close the pubs (or the artisnal pasta makers), suddenly we're on a dictatorship.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#100

Post by detritus »

LatteLazy wrote: post #99
jmnicolas wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> UK-dwellers' sense of entitlement to 'freedoms' Seriously? We (the West, I'm not from the UK) are losing our freedom at an unimaginable speed even a few years ago and you think freedom is negotiable? I find this appalling how easy we ease into a dictatorship everywhere in Europe.

It's interesting that no one seems to give a shit about real freedoms like free speech or democracy, detention without trial or access to lawyers. But when you close the pubs (or the artisnal pasta makers), suddenly we're on a dictatorship.

Hence my enclosing Freedoms in single quotes.

I tend to communicate quite drily - that's often hard to put across online.

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