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San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

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Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#91

Post by aazaa »

The article makes some good points about the contradictions in state policy, for example:

> That the State considers pro sports a critical infrastructure (essential) activity undermines this whole rubric in my mind. Pro sports is very nice to have and is probably a pleasant distraction. It is not essential. ...

This is bad for several reasons:

- sporting events involve close contact between participants

- sporting events draw crowds

- sporting events require infrastructure to service them (restrooms, food, parking, etc)

- the blatant contradiction encourages those who have been told to shut down to disobey the order

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#92

Post by bransonf »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #40
bransonf wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s important to distinguish between true case burden and diagnosed case burden. Testing is prone to variance due to behavior, test availability, development of symptoms, contact tracing effectiveness, etc... I suspect their modeling efforts use a more principled measure than positive tests. Without even seeing the data I would infer among all tests a high positivity rate (certainly double digit).

You'd be incorrect in that inference. According to state data, the positivity rate in San Mateo County is 2.6% currently.

Ah, thanks for checking. There are a few other hypotheses then:

Testing volumes are low, meaning we fail to capture a sizeable chunk of cases.

The testing strategy is bad. We’re testing people that are less likely to be positive.

And possibly, the model is just wrong.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#93

Post by viraptor »

> the structure of our economy is, for the most part, if you don’t work, you don’t eat or have a roof over your head

I like that this is raised explicitly. There's lots of space for "lockdown with proper support" that the US is extremely unlikely to execute. But I don't think it's mentioned often enough that that's a possible direction.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#94

Post by shostack »

avalys wrote: post #17

Wow. Lest anyone think that Dr. Morrow is some kind of anti-lockdown activist - back in the spring, San Mateo county had one of the most restrictive and prescriptive lockdowns of anywhere in the US (residents were ordered to limit outdoor recreation to within 5 miles of their home). It takes a lot of guts to just look objectively at the data and do what you think is right, regardless of what pressure you’re getting f…

Not only did it have one of the most aggressive and immediate responses to the issue, but for a long time we were relatively sheltered as the virus raged across the nation because these measures were highly effective, and people to a large degree listened.

He has been a straight shooter from the get go, including a while back when he said the State's orders didn't make sense because they were all or nothing for opening up and he felt that many indoor spaces were not safe to reopen.

Unfortunately, it seems much of his frustration stems from the fact that humans suck at nuance with things like this but are absolutely amazing at rationalizing anything.

I wish I knew who he was referring to specifically when he says things like:

"I may have a different view of the power and authority I have, as a function of my position, than some of my colleagues."

If they are elected, I want them out.

Ultimately, it is disheartening that the people who need to hear his message the most will not read his post.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#95

Post by jeffbee »

sidibe wrote: post #61

I understand the sentiment, but I think it's pretty clear in retrospect hard lockdowns were the correct way to address this. This half-assed "wear a mask and social distance if you want" stance just made the economy sputter for a whole a year. I've seen this in France twice, where they've oscillated between doing nothing and doing a lot, a couple brief lockdowns can reverse things quickly even after things have gotte…

That's exactly right. The harm to the economy is not caused by the countermeasures, it is caused by the disease. If you don't beat the disease, you wreck the economy.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#96

Post by garmaine »

xfitm3 wrote: post #54
garmaine wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We went into a tough lockdown, stamped out the virus Unfortunately no one here in the USA in a position of power recognizes that this should be the goal. Instead the lockdowns last only long enough for the ICU capacity to free up, then reopening the economy becomes the major goal. We need to stamp this virus out entirely, like you and your neighbors in NZ and TW have done.

It shouldn't be a goal. The virus cannot be stopped with our current medical technology, but you can certainly punish people into poverty and homelessness with draconian lockdowns.

You say it is not possible, but it absolutely is as it has happened. There are countries in this world which have had community spread and then stamped the virus out entirely, like Taiwan and New Zealand have. There are countries which have been in as bad a situation as we are (like Australia and South Korea) and then gotten their numbers down to the point where TW/NZ were at their peak. So there is a pathway from rampant community spread to eradication.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#97

Post by 0x1F8B »

lefrenchy wrote: post #90

> What I believed back in May, and what I believe now, is the power and authority to control this pandemic lies primarily in your hands, not mine. So it’s our fault? Some countries succeeded in crushing this virus because of efficient testing and contact tracing, incisive lock downs, and other measures which are put in place by public authority or institutions. What a poor way to deflect blame for the incredibly poor…

Many Americans don't even make the effort to wear masks. What do you suppose the institutions ought to do with them in an incisive lockdown situation?

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#98

Post by fairity »

soupson wrote: post #26

I understand that Dr Morrow is a health professional and not a writing professional. For this reason, I would recommend that San Mateo county hire a public relations / social media expert to do some editing on this and future posts. It lacks the structure and coherent message that a public notice needs. I read it from start to finish and I’m not sure exactly what purpose it served beyond Dr. Morrow justifying his dec…

If I'm not mistaken, your claim is that: In times of crisis, leaders need to clearly and succinctly convey direction.

This is generally a good rule to follow because we want to maximize compliance, and being anything but succinct defeats that goal.

However, this case is an exception to the rule because there's no action that requires compliance. The official is, in fact, asking for no compliance. Therefore, there's no need to be succinct. In fact, it's a great opportunity to build trust with the general public so that when compliance is required, you are able to achieve it.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#99

Post by s1artibartfast »

jeffbee wrote: post #65
spikels wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nine months into this it would be nice if we had good data on the risk factors of transmission. I know it’s a tricky virus to trace but shouldn’t we have better info on which activities demographics, etc are the most risky by now?

We do know the risk factors. It's a respiratory disease that spreads when people who are breathing are near each other. We don't need a random control trial to tell us that practicing with your brass band can spread it. The solution is to stay very far from everyone until the disease is wiped out. Only very intelligent libertarian contrary Americans think we don't have the information we need.

That is not very helpful advice when you have to manage risk while trying to eat, work, live, and stay healthy. Stats certainly exist on where some of the 16,000+ cases in San Mateo were transmitted.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#100

Post by garmaine »

plasma wrote: post #47
garmaine wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We went into a tough lockdown, stamped out the virus Unfortunately no one here in the USA in a position of power recognizes that this should be the goal. Instead the lockdowns last only long enough for the ICU capacity to free up, then reopening the economy becomes the major goal. We need to stamp this virus out entirely, like you and your neighbors in NZ and TW have done.

There were many people (other politicians, news/press stories, etc) saying it was unachievable and unrealistic, which added more pressure to our Premier to abandon his plans because it was keeping businesses shutdown and impacting mental health. As you mention NZ did a great job (and the PM even offered to consult to other health officials [1] in how they carried out the lockdown), such leadership should be commended…

I have no idea why you are being down-voted :(
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