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Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
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Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#92Car companies doesn't make their own airbags, they buy them from Autoliv. They don't make their own brakes, they buy them from Brembo. They buy transmissions from ZF, tires from Michelin, ECUs from Bosch, etc. Why should car manufacturers develop their own self driving technology instead of letting others, like Bosch [1] or Veoneer [2], do that and buy it from them? Spread the investment over more cars, it makes sens…
Car companies do that for the really standard, commoditized stuff. But they try to do it on their own for the cutting edge stuff. Toyota developed their own hybrid technology, and it paid off for them big time. Having a better hybrid system than anyone else gave the Prius a serious leg up in the competition. Honda's done similar work with variable valve timing, GM did it with automatic transmissions, etc.
I think, though, that that's a tangential point, because Uber is not a car company. As others have theorized, Uber has an interest in developing it themselves because self-driving represents an existential threat. They have absolutely no defense against someone else using self-driving to do to them what they used gig economy labor pricing to do to taxi companies.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#93what happens to Uber now when Waymo releases self-driving taxi? Will they lose all competitive advantage?
Assuming that ever happens, they will likely just license it from Waymo. I don't think Waymo intends to run a full stack taxi service, easier to just sell the self driving tech itself and let other's doing the work on real world applications. Uber's competitive advantage now is their mindshare, app experience, and subsidized pricing. With or without self driving doesn't really change that.
> Uber's competitive advantage now is their mindshare, app experience, and subsidized pricing. With or without self driving doesn't really change that.
I think the last one is their big problem: Uber has their current market-position by selling below cost, and they've locked in a lot of things like compensation at the assumption they were profitable to a much more fanciful degree. Once the VC money runs out, they're going to need to raise prices and it's a lot easier for anyone else to compete with them since they're all renting the same Waymo cars and all of the drivers are running multiple apps anyway. Uber has some economy of scale benefits but they also have a reputation for mistreating drivers and a lot of expensive real-estate and staff which local competitors don't have.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#94Wasn't Uber's whole money losing strategy based on the vision that one day they'll use their self-driving cars to get the driving done for cheaper?
No, that was never the strategy, no matter how many times people on HN claimed it was. Both Uber and Lyft are aiming for profitability next year with human drivers. (Disclaimer, I work for Lyft but this has been said in public many, many times by both companies.)
That's just not true. Way before Uber IPO'ed and started aiming at profitability next year, self-driving cars was the big thing for Uber's future.
(Disclaimer, I worked at Uber 2014-18).
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
That claim was infinitely repeated on internet message boards but never acknowledged by the company or taken seriously in the industry or by investors. That entire division was an expensive moonshot. Uber's core strategy and valuation have always been rooted in being a taxi company with human drivers.
So whats the big plan to lower overhead on rides? I looked up their last quarter and it was billions lost yet again. This doesn't seem sustainable, just shoveling money into the furnace quarter after quarter like that.
They can sustain it as long as investors are willing to shovel money into Uber... and no longer.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
That seems disingenuous and intended to save face. I liken this to the Soviets claiming they never lost the space race after the US moon landing because "landing humans was never the goal" and they denied ever building a lunar lander. I think the kids these days call it gaslighting. Statements from key executives at uber like Meyhofer who said “The ultimate north star for the company is Level 4 autonomy” are proof of…
Yeah the more I look the more I find proof that self-driving cars has been seen as an existential threat by Uber/Lyft for years and years with Travis Kalanick (ex-CEO) saying it repeatedly. Here's an interview from him on exactly this topic. https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on...
Well, if they were only afraid of them, rather than needing them, they're in decent shape, 'cause the last few years have kind of given the impression that self-driving cars aren't coming any time soon. They've been "90% here" for at least ten years but that's not enough.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#97Wasn't Uber's whole money losing strategy based on the vision that one day they'll use their self-driving cars to get the driving done for cheaper?
Uber don't need to invent self-driving themselves so long as whoever does invent self-driving cars sells them on the free market. Uber has a strong brand and loyal customers, and they could make out like bandits even if they have to buy the tech from someone else. Their real problem is if some other company perfects self-driving cars and doesn't sell them. Perhaps Uber have decided that's unlikely, either because no…
The big scare at the time Uber started it's own unit was that "once Waymo or another competitor has self driving cars, it will be easy to offer a ride share network and compete with Uber"
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#98I don't understand the current state of self driving cars. First we have tesla which already has a self driving car. They were the first to build one and now everyone is playing catch up, or are they? Waymo has been building something for a really long time too but I have no idea how close they are to an actual product. Now there is this new company that gets a bunch of money to build something. It feels to me like t…
Put down the kool aid. There are no self-driving cars.
To be fair, the levels of self-driving are almost never discussed so it's no wonder people say things like "Tesla already has self-driving cars".
For those unaware:
- Level 0: No automation
- Level 1: Driver assistance (Assisting steering or braking)
- Level 2: Partial automation (Assisting steering AND braking)
- Level 3: Conditional automation (Human supervised autonomy)
- Level 4: High automation (Full automation in ideal environments)
- Level 5: Full automation
I believe we're currently at Level 2-3.
More details here: https://www.howtogeek.com/401759/WHAT-ARE-THE-DIFFERENT-SELF...
If someone with more knowledge wants to correct me on the levels, feel free.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#99Is it possible that just having an app doesn't make you a tech company? Anyone else ready to think Uber might just be an overvalued taxi company?
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, that was never the strategy, no matter how many times people on HN claimed it was. Both Uber and Lyft are aiming for profitability next year with human drivers. (Disclaimer, I work for Lyft but this has been said in public many, many times by both companies.)
One of their execs literally pitched me this very vision when I turned Uber down for an eng mgr position several years ago. I thought it was comical that his pitch was "The reason we're going to be successful at Problem 1 (taxis) is because we're going to be successful at ridiculously-difficult Problem 2 (self-driving) which we're not close to solving". Pass.
I love it when job interview pitches fall flat like that. Many years ago, I had a job offer from IBM for a class of server I wasn't familiar with. The guy explained it to me like this: "You see, desktops these days are running Linux, and mainframes are running (IBM OS something?). We represent a class of server bigger than desktops but smaller than mainframes. It's an exciting space. The desktop class of PCs are handling bigger and bigger workloads every day, and the mainframes are getting cheaper and smaller all the time, too...." and then he sort of trailed off and we sat quietly for a few seconds, and then he started talking about the nice office.