Live data from Hacker News

WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

wtfhappenedin1971.com

91–100 of 477 posts

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#91

Nothing, these charts are just the result of picking the wrong deflator. This chart shows what happens when you use the (correct) GDP deflator: https://worthwhile.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451688169e20134878d...

Right on schedule, the apologist shows up to play their favorite trick: mixing the rich people back in to the average to hide the problems. Nice try.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#92
post #58

Business managed to exploit a number of crises to break the power of labor unions. The gold standard had nothing to do with it: sticking with gold would not force management to share productivity gains with labor.

One can argue that strong money places limits on the finance sector and non productive speculative investment.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#93
post #67

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

hmmm... dropping energy isn't going to help with the big costs families face in terms of health insurance and costs, day care, college costs, or housing. Am i wrong :)?

Not wrong, I don't think, except that raising energy costs wouldn't help more :)

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#94
post #67

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

hmmm... dropping energy isn't going to help with the big costs families face in terms of health insurance and costs, day care, college costs, or housing. Am i wrong :)?

For something searchable, see “Baumol’s cost disease.”

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#95
post #32

Nothing, these charts are just the result of picking the wrong deflator. This chart shows what happens when you use the (correct) GDP deflator: https://worthwhile.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451688169e20134878d...

There's definitely still a divergence, starting in .. 1975?

I think you’re looking at the red line, which is the point. The red and black lines diverge, but the blue and black lines don’t, and the argument is that the blue line is a more accurate version of the red one.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#96

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

People always underestimate the cost of regulations. Even when good, the cost is big. Health care is a good example. Keeping patient data private is a good thing. However it’s also absolutely crushing in its impact in the industry. Tiny projects can take months or years. HIPPA terrifies so many IT people. Driving away top developers.

I'm OK with the "Move Fast & Break Shit" crowd staying far from my medical history thankyouverymuch.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#97
post #27

The inflection point in most of these charts happen after 1971, many closer to 1980.

Looking at economic graphs is hard because it’s laggy. The problems that lead to 2008 were a gradual accumulation through the preceding 10-20 years.

That's true which is why this is not how you present that data. This feels like it was created by a technical trader who was looking for signals without an understanding of the underlying data.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#98

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

People always underestimate the cost of regulations. Even when good, the cost is big. Health care is a good example. Keeping patient data private is a good thing. However it’s also absolutely crushing in its impact in the industry. Tiny projects can take months or years. HIPPA terrifies so many IT people. Driving away top developers.

I think you're underestimating the cost of not having good regulations. Not all regulations are bad, and not all barriers (cost or otherwise) imposed by regulation is bad -- often it's been judged that the alternative has more, often externalized, costs.

What do healtcare costs and deaths look like if we removed all our environmental regulations? What's the cost in terms of people not getting treatment for things because they don't want it to be publicly know?

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#99

Some of these graphs are laughable and are candidates for "Spurious Correlations" [1]. Childhood obesity is not due to the US getting rid of the gold standard. [1] http://archive.is/9VFmh

It could be related to the increase in both parents working. No mother at home to provide nutritious meals. And both parents working is due to the already explained economic factors.

Great thinking. I googled "mother employment child obesity" and apparently it is so. The first result on google scholar has 200+ citations[1].

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11150-009-905...

Post reply on HN