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Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

ox.ac.uk

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Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#91

Post by freeone3000 »

jpxw wrote: post #64
jakozaur wrote: post #41

Title is misleading. They tested few configurations, we should use the most optimal one, not the average. Much better source: https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020... Good: + likely 90% effective if we use optimal dosing + no significant side effective. Looks better than Pfizer or Moderna. + already pre-produced at huge scale, 3 Bln doses in 2021 + easy to store and administer, just regular fri…

Another entry in the “good” column: no hospitalisations or severe cases of the disease were reported in participants receiving the vaccine. I agree about the confusion, though. I worry that people will avoid this vaccine, in the hopes of receiving the Moderna/Biontech one instead. That would be a real shame, because the results here are extremely positive. The media’s reporting of this is concerning.

Due to the low sample size, it's unclear whether there were no severe cases due to the vaccine -- it's likely that there would have been no severe cases in a given group of 39 COVID-positive individuals even with no intervention.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#92

Post by Guthur »

protoman3000 wrote: post #80

While we now get the results from various COVID-19 vaccines I see a societal issue brewing up. How will we deal with the perceived uncertainty of the safety of these vaccines and the surrounding (dis-)infodemic? I read recently that in some European country (was it Germany?) the willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 went down from 80% to 60%. With these numbers policy makers will have a hard time convincing the b…

For me it's a simple risk proposition, how much at risk do I feel my children or I are from covid. For my children it's a slam dunk; their risk from covid is statistical non existent and weigh that against vaccines that may or may not have long term negative impact on them.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#93

Post by garmaine »

bawolff wrote: post #57
jakozaur wrote: post #41

Title is misleading. They tested few configurations, we should use the most optimal one, not the average. Much better source: https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020... Good: + likely 90% effective if we use optimal dosing + no significant side effective. Looks better than Pfizer or Moderna. + already pre-produced at huge scale, 3 Bln doses in 2021 + easy to store and administer, just regular fri…

Interesting its cheaper than mRNA, i thought that was one of the benefits of using mRNA, was that it was supposed to be cheaper to manufacture.

I don’t know why mRNA would be cheaper to manufacture. It is far less stable and therefore harder to work with.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#94

Post by cuchoi »

markvdb wrote: post #81

Why do they sabotaged their own messaging by using the 70% number? Reading further, it looks like the vaccine is 90% efficient. Also, "There were no hospitalised or severe cases in anyone who received the vaccine". Can we infer anything from that statement? They seem to be suggesting that the infection might be less serious in the vaccinated population...

The 70% is the combined data, so probably the most reliable estimate. For two high doses, they got 62% effectiveness and for one low and one high dose they got 90%. They don't know why the latter was more effective.

70% is still a great effectiveness rate, specially for a cheaper and easier to distribute vaccine.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#95

Post by [deleted] »

dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #75
bawolff wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe for less developed countries, but i think for major economies, the price difference is insignificant relative to the benefits of any vaccine.

If they actually get to 90% or more, why would anyone bother with the more expensive and cumbersome vaccines? Except that the EU already signed a deal to buy the vaccines from AstraZeneca, Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson.

[deleted]

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#96

Post by ggm »

camkego wrote: post #33
camkego wrote: post #16

This statement seems a big deal: "There were no hospitalised or severe cases in anyone who received the vaccine" Is that also true of the Pfizer and Moderna trials? Are the various trials measuring 'effectiveness' in the same way? Is there a standard for 'effectiveness' in these Covid-19 trials? It will take some digging and real effort to compare the risks and benefits of the various vaccines coming to market.

So, the Oxford vaccine stated "... no hospitalised or severe cases ..." The Pfizer press release states: "There were 10 severe cases of COVID-19 observed in the trial, with nine of the cases occurring in the placebo group and one in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group." So, zero severe cases for Oxford, and one for Pfizer. Interesting. Should also point out the Pfizer trial may have had 43,000 participants, and the Oxford…

The statistical difference between 25,000 and 43,000 samples being... small. Basically, any effect visible at less than 2 in 40,000 might be missed by the 25,000 test.

Seriously, do you think this is a huge difference in quality of measurements?

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#97

Post by jaclaz »

_Microft wrote: post #18
2Gkashmiri wrote: post #7

over 7 billion human population, a 90% effectiveness is what? alright? please enlighten me. does anyone know what was the effectiveness of the smallpox vaccine that we did actually manage to eradicate successfully?

The disease will 'die out' (in quotes because it will not actually) if there are not enough targets that are susceptible to it. People infected by SARS-Cov2 seem to infect two to six other people [0]. Reduce this number by 90% and we are well below one infection per infected, so it is not sustained. This assumes that everyone would be vaccinated. Currently we are doing something similar: each measure like wearing a m…

Yes.

In case of need, the Swiss cheese model:

https://mobile.twitter.com/sketchplanator/status/13127289416...

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#98

Post by ciceryadam »

jaynetics wrote: post #68
MattGaiser wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, I think speed to manufacture/distribute is more important. The cost of these is trivial compared to social distancing/lockdown.

Only in the richest countries. Due to the totally different age pyramid and thus few severe cases, vaccination might not be worth it for the poorest countries even at this lower price.

Lockdown/social distancing hurts the economies everywhere. India and south east Asia has a huge population of street vendors that depend on buyers being out in the streets.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#99

Post by freeone3000 »

ulfw wrote: post #69
wbl wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This vaccine is a viral vector vaccine. Immunity against the vector can be an issue, but this is moderately informed speculation.

But it's a chimpanzee vector. Not a human one.

Humans can develop an immune response to things that are not infectious to humans.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#100

Post by garmaine »

evandijk70 wrote: post #61
bigpumpkin wrote: post #2

"These preliminary data indicate that the vaccine is 70.4% effective, with tests on two different dose regimens showing that the vaccine was 90% effective if administered at a half dose and then at a full dose, or 62% effective if administered in two full doses."

Isn't it more common to determine the dosing regime in Phase I/II trials, and use the Phase III trial as the final test for efficacy?

Phase I/II establishes what a safe dose is. Phase III is when you get the first efficacy data.
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