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Election Battleground State Changes

alex.github.io

91–93 of 93 posts

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? This constant finding of ballots, along with the allegations of not being allowed to observe the counting by international election watching groups, and the withholding of counts (see AZ and NV), makes the process seem extremely opaque. This is what I expect of a 3rd world country, not America. It was not difficult to get your ballot in on time. They've been out for weeks.

I knew the republicans in certain districts were making complaints about being denied access in ways that stretch what is plausible under incompetence alone but I didn't know any international groups were complaining. Can you provide a link?

I would have posted sooner, but Hacker News bars me from posting too often. Here is the report, with an e-mail image:

https://www.rebelnews.com/international_elecion_observers_ba...

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#92
post #16

Well done. NC looks like something might be wonky; it's reporting all the blocks as 50.0% Trump and 50.0% Biden. Which is possible I guess, but it seems more likely that there's a bug somewhere.

A likely possibility I suppose is that perhaps the outstanding vote total was updated but no votes were recorded either way.

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#93
post #4

I think most of us have been mentally doing these calculations (inaccurately!) in our heads these past two days. But this is so awesome! Also, according to the trends here: Alaska - Trump (3 votes) Arizona - Trump (11 votes) Georgia - Biden (16 votes) North Carolina - Trump (15 votes) Nevada - Biden (6 votes) Pennsylvania - Biden (20 votes) Winner would be Biden.

The one thing that the table does not account for is the estimated partisan lean of the remaining votes (it sort of accounts for it by using the rolling mean of the previous reports, but that has issues). Based on what I am seeing (reading twitter feeds of various analysts), AZ is leaning towards Biden because there are a few blocks of votes left that should lean much more towards Biden, which would prevent Trump fro…

I doubt it will flip but the NYT map reports NC accepts mail in ballots till the 12th as long as they were postmarked by election day. It seems the counting will last quite a while.
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