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Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

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Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#91
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Planning for failure is a core activity in nuclear plant design. Modern plants could sustain pretty much any failure and no living area would be lost.

including an airliner flying into surface storage next to the plant?

According to one article newly built nuclear reactor in Belarus can withstand crash of an aircraft up to 5700 kg with speed up to 100 m/s. That's modern design, older designs probably are worse. Air liner is two orders heavier.

Honestly withstanding airliner crash sounds like an impossible task. And crashing airliner into something is perfectly achievable by a terrorist or crazy pilot.

So I think that's a real danger.

Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#92
post #53

Do we stress about the risks nuclear power far out of proportion to how safe it is? Yes. Even accounting for the worst accidents, it kills a very low number of people per TWh. Do we ignore the risks of fossil fuels far out of proportion to how dangerous they are? Also yes. They kill an absurdly high number of people per TWh; by most estimates coal is several hundred times more dangerous than nuclear. Does that mean n…

> it kills a very low number of people per TWh

This is a grossly naive and over-simplistic way to judge safety and efficacy. Yes, perhaps fewer people die in a major accidents, but then you've left a large swath of land unusable for hundreds or thousands of years. And the cost for managing the disasters is astronomical. In a place like Japan, they lose a not insignificant portion of landmass to an accident. While other forms of energy may overall cause more deaths, it's been distributed across everyone evenly. And apparently this is considered an better outcome, because that is precisely the policy we are taking with Covid. I'd make a bet that by the end of this pandemic, the amount of suffering and death caused by the lockdowns will be more than from Covid itself, when you consider the massive economic failure of small business, children in isolation for so long, depression, overdoses, suicide, domestic abuse, diseases not being diagnosed or treated, civil unrest, etc. It's considered a good policy to share the suffering across everyone to avoid a few directly attributable deaths of compromised individuals.

edit: I'd be curious if anyone was willing to refute my statement rather than downvote it. I strongly believe what I say but am a big supporter of critical thought and would love for someone to challenge my statement and give me a reason to think otherwise.

Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#93
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far the largest solar plant in the world is about 1500MW in China. That’s still only a fraction of the largest nuclear facilities in the world. And solar plants only work during the day, to a first approximation (yes, there are storage approaches that sort of work, in some parts of the world.) Overall, most renewables don’t really come all that close to nuclear as far as generation capacity goes...

> So far the largest solar plant in the world is about 1500MW in China. That’s still only a fraction of the largest nuclear facilities in the world. Why is this a problem? If solar plants can be cheap without being big, that's a feature, not a bug.

In fact this is one of the biggest reasons why nuclear is failing. Building even just a single power plant is a project that is so large no single company can do it.

Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#94
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

including an airliner flying into surface storage next to the plant?

I would not be surprised. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZY446h4pZdc

do you have a title so I can check it through DDG? I refuse to click the consent pop-ip on YT...

EDIT: watched. An aeroplane is not a train.

Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#95

I can’t really reconcile people who genuinely, in their heart of hearts, believe we’re on the precipice of doom because of carbon emissions, and are at the same time strongly against nuclear power. Can someone who feels this way chime in and help me understand? I’m genuinely curious how these two ideas fit together.

The only people fitting both categories at once would have to be in favour of a very very quick de-growth/economic contraction and return to the lifestyle that was ubiquitous a couple centuries ago: no fossil fuels is pretty much a show-stopper for modern civilization.

That's a position that can be argued for and defended while being entirely coherent though (although it's not one that I'm particularly thrilled to run towards).

Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#96
post #86
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soviets were corrupt, Japanese were [not familiar with the explanation]. What would be the excuse for the next disaster? What if there are no selfless heroes around next time? The problem with the current nuclear technology is that one disaster is way too many. The power plants need to fail more gracefully to have the support of the people that are less fascinated by the tech. When the tsunami hits or experiment goes…

Fukushima and Czernobyl are reactor types that lack the features to fail gracefully. If you want to see an accident in a reactor that does, read about TMI. Newer reactors like EPRs are even more graceful when failing.

And what would be the excuse when the new reactors fail disastrously? None of the failed ones were considered dangerous before they fail, they were all supposed to be impossible to cause a disaster due to redundancies, passive and active safety mechanisms. They were all supposed to be built perfectly and the people who operate them were supposed to know what they are doing.

Yet, we have Chernobyl and Fukushima.

What happens when the next time 20 million people need to be evacuated? Europe fell to it's knees when 1 million refugees moved, Americans choose their president on premise to build a wall to stop Mexicans.

The risk is simply too great just to have a neat machine running that produces the same stuff that can be produced with other machines.

Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#97
post #53

Do we stress about the risks nuclear power far out of proportion to how safe it is? Yes. Even accounting for the worst accidents, it kills a very low number of people per TWh. Do we ignore the risks of fossil fuels far out of proportion to how dangerous they are? Also yes. They kill an absurdly high number of people per TWh; by most estimates coal is several hundred times more dangerous than nuclear. Does that mean n…

Most of the cost of a MWh of nuclear comes from the cost of capital (interests). [1] Put differently, if capital is backed by the state, that the $/MWh could be a _lot_ less than it is.

1. https://imgur.com/a/4mAlUbO

Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#98
post #53

Do we stress about the risks nuclear power far out of proportion to how safe it is? Yes. Even accounting for the worst accidents, it kills a very low number of people per TWh. Do we ignore the risks of fossil fuels far out of proportion to how dangerous they are? Also yes. They kill an absurdly high number of people per TWh; by most estimates coal is several hundred times more dangerous than nuclear. Does that mean n…

>Does that mean nuclear is just a totally great idea? No; the issue with nuclear is cost.

Oh don't forget the other issue: It takes decades to build a new plant. We don't got that time.

For the $6 Billion or more it takes to build a nuclear plant that will then take 15 to 20 years to license and build before it generates a single Watt, we could have had a $6 Billion of solar and wind deployed and operating for 12+ years already.

Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#99
post #59
post #5

The attitude on risks of radiation have little to do with the economic and technological failures of nuclear power. With multiple schedule and cost failures it seems like fission nuclear is an exercise in what is possible, but not really practical compared to what is accessible via renewables + storage and it's far less constrained financial and technological foundations.

Also let's not forget the problem of burnt fuel storage. Burned nuclear fuel will stay radioactive for tens of thousands of years. Unless we plan to offload the cost of storage to future generations - which we actually do now - nuclear power is horribly unprofitable.

Bury it into 1-kilometer shaft and forget about it?

Re: Nuclear power: Are we too anxious about the risks of radiation?

#100

I think it's definitely true people are overly anxious about radiation, and irrationally so. For example, it's easy to find people who get anxious about xrays but not about flying even though it gives you roughly the same amount of exposure. I know I was pretty anxious when I had a chest xray as a kid. It's just the invisible nature of radiation. Coupled with the real and brutal effects of extreme doses, it just lend…

I’ve just had approximately 7 weeks of radiation therapy as post-surgery treatment for a cancer in my neck. 2 grays each treatment (I think) and 33 treatments, 66 grays in total. My skin in the treatment area held up fine until the last week when it basically gave up, so I’m looking forward to a couple of weeks of applying gel and changing bandages... So even quite moderate exposures can have significant effects, I c…

66 Gray is far from moderate as a whole body dose. The 100% lethal onetime dose for gamma or beta rays (which you probably got one of) is around 10 Gray, LD50 is 3 Gray iirc. A wholebody dose of 2 Gray consequently would get you severe radiation sickness, depletion of white blood cells and possible secondary infections with some chance of death.

Radiation therapy therefore needs to "aim" right, so as not to hit too much of the sensitive tissues like nerves, bone marrow, mucosa, etc.

Edit: here is a chart for a comparison of typical doses: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert#/media/File%3A027_do...

Hope you beat the cancer.

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