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How poker and a spaceship imposter game make you better at life

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Re: How poker and a spaceship imposter game make you better at life

#91
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. I was the author of the post. Are you suggesting it is harder to bluff in online poker? Or that somehow taking the game online means bluffing doesn't work as well? Here is a good post on bots, if you haven't seen it: https://int8.io/counterfactual-regret-minimization-for-poker...

Von Neumann proved that there exists an unexploitable strategy for any zero sum game, where playing that strategy gives you the best possible outcome if your opponent knows your strategy and can play perfectly against it. Poker players refer to this strategy as "Game Theory Optimal". It is not necessarily "optimal" in the sense of making the most money in real life, EG if your opponent always folds to big bets then y…

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't GTO only valid for 2-player games - i.e. no Nash equlibria for 3 or more player games exist? If so, then "solving" poker by finding good enough approximation of GTO strategy only works for heads-up poker, which is a variant almost no one plays nowadays. Of course, in multiplayer games GTO is extremely useful where there's only two players left in the pot (you can view the remainder of the hand as a two player game and find GTO strategy for that game), but you still need a strategy for the remaining situations.

Re: How poker and a spaceship imposter game make you better at life

#92
post #67
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When those bad players stop playing badly the games die. It is super boring to play live poker with players that don't make mistakes. I know from experience

If people are just folding and folding maybe try playing shorthanded? Then optimal play is much more aggressive and fun.

Nope, even heads-up is boring live with people that play well because you are wasting more time shuffling than playing.

Even on-line heads-up challenges are played on 2 tables in order to not be boring and that is 500-600+ hands per hour

Re: How poker and a spaceship imposter game make you better at life

#93

The best lesson I learned from poker is the concept of "expected value". [1] It takes some of the grief out of undesired outcomes - because you made the right decision based on the information you had, and chance just happened to not be in your favor in this case. It affects how I make all kinds of business- and life-decisions. Chosing insurance-package on the rental car, investing in stock, trusting people etc. [1]…

> Chosing insurance-package on the rental car, FWIW Insurance is a negative expected value "asset", but it makes sense to buy it (not in this case necessarily). A one time massive negative hit to your finances could be devastating compared to periodic insurance payments. Expected value is a simplified representation of the distribution of outcomes which is really what you should be thinking about regarding risk manag…

You have that concept in poker too. It's called "bankroll management".

Re: How poker and a spaceship imposter game make you better at life

#94
post #90
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is, in professional poker, the long run might never come. In online poker, every hand you play is tracked and can be analysed and people have "run bad" over hundreds of thousands of hands; more than a casino-player will ever see in their life at 20 hands per hour.

It should be dependent on your edge no? With tiny edge you can run bad way longer than you can with a big one. And in live-play you should be able to find a table with a huge edge.

Both true, but the point still stands:

You're basically the best player. You'll play maybe 20 hands an hour, live - most of which you'll instantly throw away and make $0. Let's say you play 50% of your hands like a (somehow winning) maniac. That's 10 hands an hour you might make money on. Even the best players' "won money in a hand they put money in" stat is way under 50% - lower, the higher %age of hands they decide play. So you'd expect get 4 winning hands per hour, or 40 hands a day if you have the stamina (and the bad opponents to play with!). Now, most of your winning hands will result in relatively small wins (your opponents also try to win and don't light money on fire) and guess what - the bigger wins and losses stem from the more volatile situations (e.g. going to showdown) where luck plays an even bigger role than in poker in general: It's totally normal to do everything correctly and having to root for a 32% outcome in a big hand.

That long run might never arrive for you, even though you're the best.

I'm not "against poker" by any means, I would not be where I am today without it. Live poker is a (nice) gamble though, not a job.

Re: How poker and a spaceship imposter game make you better at life

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Von Neumann proved that there exists an unexploitable strategy for any zero sum game, where playing that strategy gives you the best possible outcome if your opponent knows your strategy and can play perfectly against it. Poker players refer to this strategy as "Game Theory Optimal". It is not necessarily "optimal" in the sense of making the most money in real life, EG if your opponent always folds to big bets then y…

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't GTO only valid for 2-player games - i.e. no Nash equlibria for 3 or more player games exist? If so, then "solving" poker by finding good enough approximation of GTO strategy only works for heads-up poker, which is a variant almost no one plays nowadays. Of course, in multiplayer games GTO is extremely useful where there's only two players left in the pot (you can view the remainder…

It's complicated. The short version is that a Nash equilibrium exists for multiplayer games, so there is a GTO strategy for multiplayer poker, but it is not as useful in theory or practice if pots are frequently multiway post flop.

This article explains it better than I could:

http://blog.gtorangebuilder.com/2014/03/gto-poker-outside-of...

Re: How poker and a spaceship imposter game make you better at life

#96
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is absolutely correct. If everyone plays 100% GTO, then no one makes any money except the house. In order to actually profit, you need to deviate from the GTO strategy in order to exploit your opponent's mistakes.

Playing GTO against a poor player will make you money. This isn't the case in every game (rock paper scissor is the canonical example), but it is true in poker.

Perhaps, but much less money than exploiting the poor player's many mistakes.

Re: How poker and a spaceship imposter game make you better at life

#97
post #6

An anecdote: I play a “home” online poker game with friends every Friday since quarantine started. It has been a great way to have some weekend fun and hangout (we zoom while we play). I love the “all-in” moments when you see the odds displayed for each hand and there’s still at least a turn/river left to watch. Watching the odds play out and seeing the occasional 3% chance win is so fun. I’d love to see odds annotat…

What software do you use for the actual poker game?

We use pokerstars.bet which has an option to obtain free tokens and to host a “home” game. You share your “club id” so your friends can register for and join your game. Some friends observe the game without playing. Separately, we join a zoom while playing. $20 buy in and the software allows optional buy-backs for a period.

It scales automatically to number of players so we’ve had multiple tables going at once in a game that collapse down as players are eliminated.

Pokerstars is a beast, it opens a million windows, but I gotta admit, it’s also got a million features - though once it did incorrectly decide the winning hang which left all of us scratching our heads and 1 person very upset.

Re: How poker and a spaceship imposter game make you better at life

#98
post #6

An anecdote: I play a “home” online poker game with friends every Friday since quarantine started. It has been a great way to have some weekend fun and hangout (we zoom while we play). I love the “all-in” moments when you see the odds displayed for each hand and there’s still at least a turn/river left to watch. Watching the odds play out and seeing the occasional 3% chance win is so fun. I’d love to see odds annotat…

i think we all want to know what software you're using. Pokerrrrrrrrrrrrr 2 seems to be the default, and it's fine, but there has to be something better.

More detail in other comment below but we use pokerstars.bet.
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