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Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

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Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#91

Post by bcrosby95 »

rsynnott wrote: post #76
pbourke wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect that they may be incorrect, here. I’m curious why you’d think that? It will be over a year before many workplaces are in a position to end the WFH policies. A year is a long time, enough for cultures to adapt. * edit: I mean over a year from the start of WFH policies in March-April of this year.

This assumes that wfh actually works out well for productivity, employee retention, etc. I don’t think it’s clear that that’s the case. I may be biased; personally I can’t wait to be back in an office.

For retention it's hard to say. But so far the productivity numbers I've seen from a few companies range from slightly positive to slightly negative. Single digit percentage changes either way.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#92

Post by zachware »

This will all depend what % of employers stay with their current remote structure. It’ll be somewhere between 1% of 80/90%.

The point is that we’re making long-term decisions based on short-term problems. Specifically this week JP Morgan asked its traders to return to the office.

You can counter this with examples like Facebook opening an office in Austin some years ago because that’s where the talent had moved. Similar in Boulder.

There will certainly be some % of employers who keep remote-first. And another scenario where they are forced to or the employees decide they love their lifestyle (which is likely). In the latter employers are either forced to adopt it or or the employees just leave or in some concentrations big companies start building offices in a distributed way.

We’re severely limiting our job choices if we stay remote but most employers don’t.

Before when we go off and buy houses or sign long-term leases we should really just wait this out until the Spring or whenever the virus is neutralized.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#93

Post by nickff »

zachware wrote: post #92

This will all depend what % of employers stay with their current remote structure. It’ll be somewhere between 1% of 80/90%. The point is that we’re making long-term decisions based on short-term problems. Specifically this week JP Morgan asked its traders to return to the office. You can counter this with examples like Facebook opening an office in Austin some years ago because that’s where the talent had moved. Simi…

I hate to ask for a citation, but where are you getting that 1% number? It seems made-up.

I would guess that more than one percent of office workers will be permitted/encouraged to go remote, but I think that few companies will go remote. There is no reason why remote needs to be a company-wide Boolean selection.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#94

Post by ABCLAW »

refurb wrote: post #65
8note wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a difference between needing a roof over your head vs needing to protect your investment portfolio.

Well, my landlord in SF was an old lady whose husband died suddenly at 50 and their retirement portfolio was their apartment building. But screw her right?

How exactly is she screwed? She owns an apartment building. She can likely liquidate for multiple millions even in a down market and live in luxury for the remainder of her life AND pass on a ton of money to her heirs.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#95

Post by rsynnott »

silveroriole wrote: post #34
epistasis wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The picture of a house they show nestled in the trees is incredibly dangerous, incredibly resource intrnsive, and just ecologically unsound. We need to be building massive amounts of housing in city centers to let as many people live in them that would like to. Instead we lock down any new construction in cities, which requires the least amount of infrastructure and environmental damage, and instead let pretty much a…

> We need to be building massive amounts of housing in city centers to let as many people live in them that would like to. How many people would ‘like’ to live in a city centre if they didn’t have to for work?

> How many people would ‘like’ to live in a city centre if they didn’t have to for work?

I think this is a very personal thing. I wouldn't consider living far from a city centre, work or no work, personally. Some people love outer suburbs or the country, and that's fine; just wouldn't be for me.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#96

Post by koolba »

fleshdaddy wrote: post #80
refurb wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, my landlord in SF was an old lady whose husband died suddenly at 50 and their retirement portfolio was their apartment building. But screw her right?

I'm sorry but most Americans retirement portfolio isn't an apartment complex in the most expensive city in the country. I'll find a bit more sympathy for them.

When it comes to human interest stories “most“ doesn’t matter. It’s all about the individual.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#97

Post by xivzgrev »

zachware wrote: post #92

This will all depend what % of employers stay with their current remote structure. It’ll be somewhere between 1% of 80/90%. The point is that we’re making long-term decisions based on short-term problems. Specifically this week JP Morgan asked its traders to return to the office. You can counter this with examples like Facebook opening an office in Austin some years ago because that’s where the talent had moved. Simi…

exactly this. i'm pretty surprised at the number of people buying homes in far out locations, like this "new normal" is going to be the "new normal" ongoing. I don't buy it (yet). There are a few companies that have bought in, and if you work there then at least you're set for a bit. But people only stay at a tech job for a few years typically - what happens when you want to switch companies?

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#98

Post by xivzgrev »

nickff wrote: post #93
zachware wrote: post #92

This will all depend what % of employers stay with their current remote structure. It’ll be somewhere between 1% of 80/90%. The point is that we’re making long-term decisions based on short-term problems. Specifically this week JP Morgan asked its traders to return to the office. You can counter this with examples like Facebook opening an office in Austin some years ago because that’s where the talent had moved. Simi…

I hate to ask for a citation, but where are you getting that 1% number? It seems made-up. I would guess that more than one percent of office workers will be permitted/encouraged to go remote, but I think that few companies will go remote. There is no reason why remote needs to be a company-wide Boolean selection.

well what we've heard from remote-first companies is that remote culture is a very deliberate thing. if you have hybrid model and don't actively work to include remote folks, they will naturally become second class citizens - less visibility, less in the loop, and less likely to get promoted. so i think that's in part where the boolean pressure is coming from.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#99

Post by fortran77 »

We're "fantasizing" about relocating from Silicon Valley for our USA home (we spend about 5 months/year overseas) but we've always thought it would be foolish to stay in California because of the tax situation. If you could live anywhere, a more tax friendly / less income-hostile state would be a good idea. (However, if your employer is in CA, good luck not having California try to collect anyway. They even are proposing a "wealth tax" that would apply retroactively to people who left in the past 10 years!)

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#100

Post by cinquemb »

ghaff wrote: post #25
nordsieck wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wonder whether this trend will reverse in the next 1-3 years or this is the new permanent dynamic of the SF rental market. IMO, that's completely dependent on how much SF tech companies embrace remote work.

And others, like in finance. It also depends on whether those who move away from (or would potentially have moved to) the Bay Area come back, especially if prices are a bit less eye-watering. Which to some degree depends on how badly restaurants, bars, retail, etc. are ultimately hit. And just what the attitude towards urban living generally is. (This applies more specifically to SF than the Bay Area as a whole.) The…

> And others, like in finance.

The thing is though, there are huge shifts going on in how finance operates today and how it will be going forward in the future…

A lot of things that most people in various societies have not questioned for long time are being brought into the forefront of awareness because of the pandemic, but arguably have developing for many years now and have become the reality for people at the margins of various societies.

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