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Robinhood and How to Lose Money

themargins.substack.com

91–100 of 209 posts

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#91
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> needs the discipline to not succumb to spending it on a car/house/divorce Apart from the 2008 boom/crash, owning a house has been a great way for the middle class to become asset millionaires. I knew someone in London who was routinely out-earned by the asset appreciation on their own house. Besides, inflation has rather moved the bar for "millionaire" to every middle class couple with a house and two retirement fu…

> inflation Indeed. Hoarding cash is for fools. I'm always bemused by the claims that wealthy people hoard cash.

But they do; sure, they spend heaps on shit like houses and cars and parties and vacations or whatever other hobbies they have, but most of their money is in their companies, stocks, stock options, tax havens, etc. At some point they reach a critical mass where no matter how much they splurge, they will never see their wealth decline. At best the companies / stocks they own will lose some value, but they will NEVER feel that in their wallet.

And some will set up a charity, but people like Bill Gates have never spent a significant portion of their wealth on that. Again though, that may be a logistical problem - they can't spend money fast enough whilst not splurging it.

Of course, the solution is simple; have the companies pay their staff better. Or give the staff stocks themselves, to be force-bought by the employer when they leave / get fired, and have it pay out dividends monthly to stipend their base income. This gives the employees representation in the board of directors as well, which is much needed in the modern capitalist system.

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just invest in the S&P 500. It isn't rocket science.

It's not, however, you need access to starting capital and patience. Wealth begets wealth with this strategy, but you'll only become a millionaire using this tactic if you can put in a significant amount. The S&P tripled in value since 2010, so you would've had to invest $333.000 at that time and cash out now to become a millionaire. But few people have that. That's a 1%, I already made my fortune / I have rich paren…

it's called patience and keep on investing. You only need to put 400$ every month into SP500 in order to reach retirement age with more than a million.

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#93
I love Robinhood as a product (simple, easy to use) but agree it’s advantages also can lead to recklessness.

For me, I simply delete the mobile app for my phone and use another app to set price alerts. This prevents me from overtrading and obsessing over the markets everyday.

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just invest in the S&P 500. It isn't rocket science.

It's not, however, you need access to starting capital and patience. Wealth begets wealth with this strategy, but you'll only become a millionaire using this tactic if you can put in a significant amount. The S&P tripled in value since 2010, so you would've had to invest $333.000 at that time and cash out now to become a millionaire. But few people have that. That's a 1%, I already made my fortune / I have rich paren…

Putting $8.5K annually into a 401k for 35 years and assuming a 6% return gets you $977K says a web calculator.

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#95
post #35

I work in the industry and these kind of articles are always full of bad information about order routing. * Robinhood order flow is informed and toxic like all other brokerages. Taking the opposing side of all Robinhood trades would cause a broker-dealer to lose all of their capital very quickly. * The "bad prices" the "novices" are trading at, are in fact, the same market price that all participants trade at (at or…

Would you mind explaining a few of those terms? "Informed" and "toxic", specifically.

"Informed" in his context means based on new research/news/information, implying that the market is more likely than not to subsequently move in the direction of the trade.

A "toxic" position is one that has a high chance of moving against the holder. Taking the opposite side to informed trades might be toxic, but taking the opposite side to the first buy trade in a series of a hundred by a big mutual fund company who decided they like a stock is definitely toxic because they will continue moving the price higher with each trade -- so the brokerage doesn't want to keep these short positions on their own books but source them in the market.

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#96

I work in the industry and these kind of articles are always full of bad information about order routing. * Robinhood order flow is informed and toxic like all other brokerages. Taking the opposing side of all Robinhood trades would cause a broker-dealer to lose all of their capital very quickly. * The "bad prices" the "novices" are trading at, are in fact, the same market price that all participants trade at (at or…

> Taking the opposing side of all Robinhood trades would cause a broker-dealer to lose all of their capital very quickly Why? This is literally the definition of order flow purchasing and market making. Flow amidst spreads creates profits. The non-cynical explanation for Robinhood’s flow being attractive is in the law of large numbers. Robinhood’s trades are tiny. That means buying their flow gives one lots of small,…

He doesn't mean taking the opposite side and immediately offloading the risk in the market with a small bid-ask.

He means taking the opposite side as a principal - like many spread betting companies do. Which is dangerous because not all Robinhood clients are small and uninformed.

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#97
post #11

I do not get the appeal of largely gambling with your money on RH instead of just passively investing for the long term. Maybe with some of your money, but not to the extent a lot of people are doing. People want to get rich quick I guess? Even if you do want to do that, why not pick a brokerage which doesn't take as much from you, like IBKR? It's just a surreal situation to me.

Based on my limited experience, you enter during the bull market, make some easy wins, and start wanting to bet more and more because winning feels so easy. I could totally feel this process when I bought a few option calls that over a few months made 10x. That felt fantastic at first but shortly after I noticed that I started to blame myself for not taking more risk because on the hindsight, it felt so obvious that the price would go up. The market knowledge aside, psychological state is another thing that needs to be kept under control not to let yourself slip into the gambling state. I wouldn't be surprised if the online echo chambers that are set around particular stocks make people unreasonably confident and make them want to take more risk.

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only we had learned something from 2008... But apparently not (For those who aren't aware) The problem with options is that your liability with them can get bigger than your equity. You buy 10 shares of Newthing.js for $1000 ($100/share), the maximum you're losing is $1000 You shortsell NTJS because they use JS instead of Ruby, but guess what NTJS rose to $200 per share and at the time of selling you need to cover…

> The problem with options is that your liability with them can get bigger than your equity Only if you sell them. A bought option’s maximum downside is the premium. Does Robinhood let users sell options?

You can't sell them naked. You can sell covered calls & cash covered puts. You can also wrangle margin into it, but as far as I can tell you're unable to do it naked.

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#99
post #59
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"People also gamble in Las Vegas, no one is stopping them." If Robin Hood was positioned and sold as 'gambling' and regulated a such, nobody would have a problem with it. But if anyone doesn't see the maximal hypocrisy in their branding (literally: Robin Hood) and the materiality of their offer, then that's the issue right there. By 'gravy' the author means 'fish' in gambling terms. There's just no way kids on their…

In stock market you're not playing against other people, including the "pros". You try to pick companies that will grow in the future. If you pick well, then it doesn't really matter if other people (including "pros") pick the same company or not because there's enough future growth for everybody. And I have much less reverence towards pros than you. The pros were saying that Amazon's valuation is so crazy that even…

> In stock market you're not playing against other people, including the "pros".

In one short sentence, you showed why people are hating on RH.

When you buy or sell a stock (or option or whatever), there is a counterparty to your trade. That person is making the trade because, essentially (in an oversimplified way), they believe the opposite of what you believe regarding the value of the underlying stock. One of you will be wrong. You are precisely "playing against other people", because without those other people, there will be no market.

> If you pick well, then it doesn't really matter if other people (including "pros") pick the same company or not because there's enough future growth for everybody.

While correct, this is shortsighted, and it is precisely why people (rightly or wrongly) suggest investing in an index fund. The issue is that the benchmark for successful investing is beating the general market, not zero. Specifically, if you aren't beating the market or some proxy thereof, you are paying an opportunity cost by investing inefficiently.

Most professional money managers do not beat the market over any reasonable time frame (although they may mitigate certain types of risk relatively effectively), and the folks who sling stocks on RH or TD Ameritrade or whatever also do not beat the market over any reasonable time frame (certainly in aggregrate, and disproportionately true on an individual basis).

> And I have much less reverence towards pros than you.

I actually think this lack of reverence towards the pros is a good thing, but probably not for the reason you think. The pros who exploit less sophisticated counterparties don't advertise this fact very much, if at all -- it is not in their financial best interest to do so.

There is terrible group-think on Wall Street, and there are niche firms that make a killing exploiting this group-think. I consider these niche firms the real "pros".

> While I'm not playing against the pros, I sure am getting better returns than 90% of them.

Your reference time frame is way too short if you actually think this is true. If you think you can scale your returns that beat the market over the long term on a relatively small eight figure fund, you stand to make many millions for yourself, and I recommend you make some friends in the financial world ASAP -- the money will find you. I will bet the don't on your ability to produce market beating results over the long term, since it seems to me that you don't even really understand the basic mechanics of how the market actually works or who the various players actually are.

That said, best of luck.

Re: Robinhood and How to Lose Money

#100
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not, however, you need access to starting capital and patience. Wealth begets wealth with this strategy, but you'll only become a millionaire using this tactic if you can put in a significant amount. The S&P tripled in value since 2010, so you would've had to invest $333.000 at that time and cash out now to become a millionaire. But few people have that. That's a 1%, I already made my fortune / I have rich paren…

it's called patience and keep on investing. You only need to put 400$ every month into SP500 in order to reach retirement age with more than a million.

A million in 2060 isn't going to be enough to retire on. I'd be surprised if it was enough to buy a moderate house.

If you'd done this 40 years ago, the million dollars you'd have today would have the equivalent purchasing power of $300,000 in 1980. Inflation is a cruel master.

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