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Friends don't let friends get into finance

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Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#91
post #65

Perhaps it's not a problem with finance but a problem with other industries that don't pay their people well. Who is to say that a CDO isn't a valuable economic activity? If creating a CDO creates more value to the economy than designing an automobile why shouldn't engineers focus on building those? People forget that prices and money are essentially information about the supply and demand of a good. As we progress i…

I find your arguments plausible, but many finance companies were bailed out in a big way by the government recently. I think it's possible that some of these companies were playing games that gave them a high probability of a decent gain and a small probability of a catastrophic loss. It seems unlikely that playing this sort of game contributes to more accurate pricing.

Well actually some of the guys who did VERY well did so by buying CDSs (credit default swaps) against CDOs (collateralized debt obligations) it's very likely that the bubble was curtailed before it got even further out of control as some very smart individuals were able to short the housing market via a CDS against a CDO. This pricing differential was essential to Goldman getting out of CDOs and into CDSs against CDOs after they figured out what John Paulson and others were up to.

The price increase in CDSs against CDOs in retail mortgages alerted Goldman to the fact that people were very interested in a CDS against what they thought was a very solid asset (CDO consisting of residential mortgages).

This is also why AIG got bailed out, GS had enough CDSs with AIG that if AIG went so would GS. I definitely agree with you that in the long run bailouts create an atmosphere of moral hazard and irrational exuberance.

The problem also largely stems from political economics, as a representative you want to remain elected, therefore if you can kick the economic collapse can down the road a few years or spread its impact over many years you can stay in office. Therefore the rational economic choice for politicians is to favor bailouts. Very few people will not vote for you because 5 years later their taxes are 10% higher, but most will not vote for you if they lose their job. By the same token most people would rather take a 10% pay cut for 10 years than have no income for 1.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#92
post #75

Some career advice for all of you on Hacker News. This advice may be two years too late, but may help someone just getting in now. The decision to leave a high-paying Wall Street firm is foolhardy and one that you will more than likely live to regret later. It would be much more prudent for you to stick around at a firm for 5-6 years, put away $500K-700K in cash, get some experience, make connections and then make yo…

"Life is what happens to when you are busy making other plans" No better way to ensure you'll never follow your dreams than set yourself up to be dependent upon a large salary and plan on pursuing them "a couple of years later."

pay bulk of your salary into a savings account. get used to living on say, 20% of it. you'll see pretty soon if you're 'following you dream' or getting hooked on cash

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#93
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously? You're saying that it's fine for the financial industry to hold the country hostage when they fail because there's equal opportunity for other industries to do that too if they too can become large enough?

Not justifying it, but when people think the whole system could break down, crazya$$ isht happens. The rightness or wrongness of what was done is not what I was getting into. Merely commenting on your point as to why the "finance sector is protected by the government whereas startups are not".

Right - but the finance sector wasn't chosen at random to receive a bailout because of 'craziness'. It was bailed out because it's dysfunctional. And now, people in the financial industry expect it to get bailed out when it screws up, since that's what's happened time after time. Whereas people joining startups have no such expectation.

If you don't seriously expect Facebook to get bailed out it's not a particularly meaningful thing to bring up.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The private goods-producing sector value added fell 6.4 percent in 2009, after a 4.2 percent decline in 2008. The private services-producing sector declined by 2.1 percent, after a 0.4 percent increase in 2008. The finance and insurance industry grew 6.1 percent in 2009, partially offsetting the widespread economic decline. The increase was primarily driven by the strong recovery of the insurance carriers industry. T…

Sorry, I didn't realize your comment was limited to a single year of our current recession. You are correct - for a short period, finance has grown while other sectors have shrank. That's not the general trend, however, that's just a blip caused by the recently ended recession.

Ended?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#95
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be true if the losses from the last crash hadn't been socialized. If the financial industry had actually had to bear the consequences of the risks they take in the same way that entrepreneurs do, the decisions would be rational. As it is, the finance sector is protected by the government whereas startups are not.

And GM is blameless because they make SUVs?

What relevance has that comment?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If high frequency trading is so needless, why does the entire market go into shock when the traders panicked and left on may 6th 2010? Because HFTs, who enjoy the privilege of walking away from the market at the worst possible moment, had largely displaced traditional market makers who make expensive commitments not to do that. Nobody specifically chooses to do business with them, they're exploiting flaws in the wa…

...they're exploiting flaws in the way trades clear to front-run them and become unwanted middlemen. Could you explain the mechanics of how this works? Near as I can tell, the only way to become a "middleman" is to offer a better price than your competitors or to offer the same price at an earlier time. Is there a "front-run my competitors" FIX command I'm not aware of?

http://blog.themistrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/tox... describes a predatory algorithm deliberately making inconsequential trades solely to discover a buyer's limit, then selling short at that limit only to cover after the dip they themselves caused. This is basically scalping, a strategy designed to steal the surplus value from both the buyer and seller. Such abuses were even more egregious back when most exchanges offered flash orders, which is more like poker with certain players allowed to see your cards.

When a HFT buys and sells with a holding time in milliseconds, they are in no way guiding the correct allocation of our economy's resources, they are merely bleeding those who are. That they can do so profitably is showing us what we should fix about the way trades clear.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are forced to trade, here is how: When the government needs a loan to cover its budget, they get it from the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve are charged to coin new money to provide the government (see wikipedia Federal Reserve, subheadings: 'Elastic Currency', 'Lender of Last Resort' & 'Central bank'). As the Federal Reserve increases the money supply, the value of the dollars in your pocket/matress/bank…

Here's the non sequitur: 1) inflation makes it costly to hold money 2) inflation forces you to make stupid speculative investments and frequent trades The second doesn't follow from the first.

I only said 'many' lose their shirts, but that might have been harsh.

Many investors are just looking to store their savings. They're not Warren Buffets, they don't study markets to make educated decisions, they just go into index funds and hope for the best.

But it's like having your bank in the lobby of a casino. You don't have to play --- but you're already there, and look at the flashing lights...

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#98
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you invest your money in a random sample of the S&P 500?

If I wanted long-term exposure to the S&P 500 then I would indeed do that. I have bought and shorted SPY (which has a fee attached) as a part of short-term pairs trades. My point is simply that for years, fund managers such John Bogle have made a big deal about the fact that an efficient market doesn't allow stock picking funds to beat the cheaper index funds, etc, etc. True enough, but the next logical step is to dr…

I think you are referring to an ETF?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#99
post #65

Perhaps it's not a problem with finance but a problem with other industries that don't pay their people well. Who is to say that a CDO isn't a valuable economic activity? If creating a CDO creates more value to the economy than designing an automobile why shouldn't engineers focus on building those? People forget that prices and money are essentially information about the supply and demand of a good. As we progress i…

The problem isn't the ability to create financial instruments. It's the fact that the people that created and purchased these ill-advised investments were given the resources of those that didn't make bad decisions (through inflation and taxes). It's easy afford outrageous salaries when your revenue comes from government assisted theft.

I definitely agree with you that the bailouts are a huge problem, however, it's not like the alternatives presented for engineers in the article also don't get a sizable portion of their funding from the gov't.

Given that schooling is heavily funded by the gov't it would only seem natural to follow the funding train. They're practically begging people to go to engineering school and become a financier the way they fund things.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#100
post #65

Perhaps it's not a problem with finance but a problem with other industries that don't pay their people well. Who is to say that a CDO isn't a valuable economic activity? If creating a CDO creates more value to the economy than designing an automobile why shouldn't engineers focus on building those? People forget that prices and money are essentially information about the supply and demand of a good. As we progress i…

Complex financial derivatives may not be as tangible as other engineering endeavors, however they do have tremendous value to businesses looking to hedge their risk and offer flexibility to their business models. The economic collapse caused by these complex financial instruments was not due to the Phd's that created these derivatives, but by the traders that didn't full understand the limitation of the risk models, as well as the moral hazard in packaging toxic assets into CDO's knowing they would easily be able to pass it along. Having said that, I'm glad I didn't sell my soul and become a banker ;)
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