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Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

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Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#91

Post by solidasparagus »

srean wrote: post #80

Taking the numbers at their face value this is a good exercise in some text book statistical test of hypothesis. Incidents: Before 89. After 126. What is the chance of this happening if the 'rate' of occurrence has not changed ? Assuming an unknown but constant Poisson rate, we get the probability of observing what has been observed to be 0.00225. A fortuitous thing about this test is that one does not need to know w…

> Assuming a Poisson rate

That feels like a mighty big assumption. Probably big enough that trying to calculate the probability is more misleading than enlightening.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#92

Post by syberspace »

stepbeek wrote: post #77
robertlagrant wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

:-) Cloudflare is amazing, yes. Everyone should use it by default, I say.

Man, I really want to say we don't because of the implications of too centralised an internet, but there's no way it isn't a transitive dependency.

What the hell are you building that there has to be Cloudflare in the dependency tree at some point?

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#94

Post by dutchmartin »

visarga wrote: post #88
srean wrote: post #80

Taking the numbers at their face value this is a good exercise in some text book statistical test of hypothesis. Incidents: Before 89. After 126. What is the chance of this happening if the 'rate' of occurrence has not changed ? Assuming an unknown but constant Poisson rate, we get the probability of observing what has been observed to be 0.00225. A fortuitous thing about this test is that one does not need to know w…

Maybe Github has grown significantly since then. More complexity, more down time.

Well, Github introduced way more new features since Microsoft took over.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#95

Post by z9e »

robertlagrant wrote: post #65
jillesvangurp wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gold standard here is 5 9s, not 2. They have paying customers that are being inconvenienced by this. We lost time over this multiple times in the last few weeks. So, not good. IMHO they are having some major issues with their release process that they need to address. Standards have slipped there; they used to be better at this.

The numbers on Github Enterprise might be different. They probably roll out changes to the free/$4 per month Github first.

My company has GH enterprise and these numbers look accurate based on my experience. We’ve noticed a lot of downtime that has impacted us.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#96

Post by z9e »

Has anyone noticed their search has gotten worse? I sometimes will search for some code that I know exists in a repo, but it gives no results, and when searching a little later it shows them as I expect.

We have Github enterprise, and Slack notifications when Github has any issues. Nearly every week there’s a problem, sometimes it’s resolved in a few minutes, other times it goes for an hour or so. I’ve pondered the question if there has been more outages since the MS acquisition and in my experience that’s a hard yes.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#97

Post by srean »

solidasparagus wrote: post #91
srean wrote: post #80

Taking the numbers at their face value this is a good exercise in some text book statistical test of hypothesis. Incidents: Before 89. After 126. What is the chance of this happening if the 'rate' of occurrence has not changed ? Assuming an unknown but constant Poisson rate, we get the probability of observing what has been observed to be 0.00225. A fortuitous thing about this test is that one does not need to know w…

> Assuming a Poisson rate That feels like a mighty big assumption. Probably big enough that trying to calculate the probability is more misleading than enlightening.

As I mentioned, my comment is meant as an exercise. If we were to take the numbers more seriously, due diligence is necessary. That said, if we assume that one incident does not affect the other, then the Poisson nature falls out as a natural consequence of that independence and the assumption of a constant rate (our Null hypothesis).

As long as the incidents are spaced out enough, that the possibility of one incident affecting the other is low, Poisson can be surprisingly realistic. Quite remarkable, given how simple it is. All in all not that bad an assumption for a back of the envelope calculation in a meeting.

In practice, however, given more time, I would be looking at the statistics of inter-incident times more carefully. If those look sufficiently different from Exponentially distributed, a non-Poisson renewal process might be more appropriate than a Poisson process.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#99

Post by virtue3 »

danpalmer wrote: post #9
battery423 wrote: post #2

It could also mean that they are more active and creating more chaos due to more changes. shameless and useless advertising.

On my team our downtime is very closely correlated with how much we're working and changing the product. I'd be surprised if GitHub is much different.

exactly. Before M$ there wasn't much product movement at Github :/
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