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TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

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Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#91

Post by someperson »

jacquesm wrote: post #76
threatofrain wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this internal resistance theory in China?

China has finite resources to throw at this problem and their track record so far is less than stellar. There is a lot of concern that pursuing this now is wasting resources better put to use elsewhere. But now the nationalists will be able to point to this and say 'see, we were right all along, now we need to make up for lost time' and then they'll demand even more resources. Which is interesting because it probably…

> China is still stuck at 28 nm

I don't follow the industry closely, but recent reports say that Huawei's HiSilicon Kirin 710A chip is being manufactured on SMIC's 14nm process.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#92

Post by jacquesm »

someperson wrote: post #91
jacquesm wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has finite resources to throw at this problem and their track record so far is less than stellar. There is a lot of concern that pursuing this now is wasting resources better put to use elsewhere. But now the nationalists will be able to point to this and say 'see, we were right all along, now we need to make up for lost time' and then they'll demand even more resources. Which is interesting because it probably…

> China is still stuck at 28 nm I don't follow the industry closely, but recent reports say that Huawei's HiSilicon Kirin 710A chip is being manufactured on SMIC's 14nm process.

Oh, that's interesting news, so SMIC has cracked the next step?

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/310559-mainland-chines...

Indeed they do! Thank you for pointing that out to me, I totally missed this. Wonder what the yield is?

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#93

Post by addicted »

elp wrote: post #82
salimmadjd wrote: post #42

Anyone else feels this is shortsighted? Estimates are that China is 10 years away to be able to build chips domestically that can compete with TSMC. Mostly because a lot of the precision chip making technologies are hard to make and are only made by a few manufactures and their exports are controlled. However, I feel like our new competitive mindset is using the wall to block others. To wall off China to wall off imm…

I think this sends a really strong message to the rest of the world to try avoid buying US technology because they might get locked into arbitrary rules sometime in the future. There was an article in The Economist a few month back (can't find the link right now) that suggested that China might secretly like Donald Trump and accept the short term pain of his presidency because of the long term gain of the wedge he is…

If you just look at the Coronavirus as an example.

The world would be quite happy pinning the blame on China.

Instead, that would put them on the side of Donald Trump who is doing it in the most ham handed and transparently political way, and is, worse, messing with countries’ abilities to protect their citizens with a vaccine, by trying to buy away their companies, acquire exclusive rights, and refusing to sign any Coronavirus patent sharing agreements.

So as much as pretty much every leader in the world would like to blame China, thanks to Trump it’s hard for them to do so.

So in a way Trump is definitely helping China.

And that’s before we take into account the shattering of the image of American effectiveness and competence that Trump’s disastrous response has caused.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#94

Post by addicted »

dannyw wrote: post #20
billfruit wrote: post #16

"All non-U. S. chip manufacturers using American chipmaking equipment, intellectual property or design software will have to apply for a license before shipping chips to Huawei." Isn't that really crossing the line; It implies that if a country buys American Equipment/Software then they are at the whims of American policy; American equipment comes with strings attached: Really does not look appealing to many countrie…

I mean, if you do business in China and recognise Taiwan, you will be shown the door and/or your. business will be literally stolen, so... it's not really different. It's about time we start making China accountable. It's about time we start blocking Tencent and Alibaba from further American acquisition or investment. It's about time we restrict and throttle CCP-controlled media platforms like Tiktok; the same way Ch…

The problem with your argument is that for the vast majority of the world the US, and American companies, have spied far more on their communications, and manipulated far more do their politics than anything China has done.

So if those are the calculations the US starts forcing countries to make, the most likely impact will be on American companies before anyone touches the Chinese (largely also because it’s American companies that dominate the internet around the world, and not the Chinese, and restricting internet services will be far easier than physical products for most countries).

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#95

Post by wbl »

puppymaster wrote: post #77
synaesthesisx wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huawei is one of their largest competitors in terms of 5G chipsets. Restrictions on Huawei would also likely help US companies like Apple, so this move would be a net positive.

and for those that ask why didn't Qualcomm sue Huawei to oblivion, just like they did to Apple in US and China? Qualcomm did. China's antitrust body proceeded to fine them for 1B and forced them to offer reasonable IP licencing deal to local tech companies.

Which isn't unreaaonable: the Apple Qualcomm case is going in a similar direction in the US.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#96

Post by someperson »

trixie_ wrote: post #69
dannyw wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The threat of nuclear war goes both ways: the impact of nuclear on discouraging the defence of Taiwan is equally applicable on discouraging the invasion of Taiwan.

No one is having a nuclear war over Taiwan. It's important, but not that important. If China invaded Taiwan, the US would not defend it. Super powers don't go to war. They have wars through proxy countries. If super powers did go to war, it would be nuclear war, and it would be bad.

For what it's worth, the invasion of Taiwan is considered by military planners to be an important flash point for World War 3. It would be bloody, and very likely nuclear, and pull in nearby nations like Japan, and will likely end with hundreds of millions (possibly billions) dead.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#97

Post by addicted »

jacquesm wrote: post #38
dannyw wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese semiconductor industry is going to happen no matter what; it is one of their strategic priorities and they have been moving in this direction for a long time. This is about making it harder and inflicting some pain on them.

The effect will be the exact opposite, it will make it harder and will inflict some pain on them in the short term , but in the longer term any internal resistance has just evaporated and they will double down on this.

More importantly this will also encourage non Chinese nations to assist in any move away from US power over the semiconductor industry.

India has already started taking steps. It’s likely the Europeans will as well now.

The US government is taking these actions with blinders on. They only seem capable of modeling effects 6 months into the future and only the direct impacts on China (and barely even that, considering how poorly their entire tariff wars have gone, with the US basically having got nothing so far). The reality is that there is an entire planet’s worth of other countries also watching the US lashing out. Especially American allies who have been directly attacked by the US government over the past couple of years, that are now convinced they need to start steadily moving away from US influence.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#98

Post by boudin »

dannyw wrote: post #20
billfruit wrote: post #16

"All non-U. S. chip manufacturers using American chipmaking equipment, intellectual property or design software will have to apply for a license before shipping chips to Huawei." Isn't that really crossing the line; It implies that if a country buys American Equipment/Software then they are at the whims of American policy; American equipment comes with strings attached: Really does not look appealing to many countrie…

I mean, if you do business in China and recognise Taiwan, you will be shown the door and/or your. business will be literally stolen, so... it's not really different. It's about time we start making China accountable. It's about time we start blocking Tencent and Alibaba from further American acquisition or investment. It's about time we restrict and throttle CCP-controlled media platforms like Tiktok; the same way Ch…

This approach will only have impact in short term. You can be sure that TSMC is working behind the scene to create a legal entity to work around this legislation and get one of its main customers back. There's just 2 potential outcomes: - TSMC having found a way to workaround that restrictions and gaining back Huwaeï - China being forced to quickly gain the same level of expertise

In both situation the outcome is even less control for the US.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#99

Post by est »

fermienrico wrote: post #30

To preface, firstly - I am a supporter of free global trade and greater collaboration between countries to maximize the benefit of each other. The problem starts when there is a massive asymmetry in the trade. China has completely blocked US services from Google to Uber, and gladly accepts manufacturing investment - Tesla Shanghai factory, Intel's Chengdu factory, etc. because the CCP knows that they will gain tremen…

> China has completely blocked US services from Google to Uber

China blocked Google, but not Uber

People also invent false lies like "China blocked Amazon, eBay, Yahoo" etc.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#100

Post by est »

foepys wrote: post #89
dirtyid wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China has completely blocked US services from Google to Uber Western social media platform are welcome to participate in China if they follow local laws - in this case onerous censorship requirements, which every domestic company comply to. That's what project Dragonfly was for, but internal Google politics killed it. Bing still operates fine in China while Google and Facebook still makes billions off Chinese adsal…

Didn't China require any foreign company to be controlled by Chinese to get access to the Chinese market? I heard that they relaxed those restrictions a bit to appease the WTO but in practice are often still denying basic permits for foreign companies until they can show to have a ≥51% Chinese share.

> Didn't China require any foreign company to be controlled by Chinese to get access to the Chinese market?

It varies by industry. And loosened quite a bit since the trade war.

The most recent case:

Exxon Mobil starts building $10 billion China petrochemical complex

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxonmobil-china-petroche...

Now Shanghai FTZ allows foreign Internet services operate without the ICP licence. Interesting times.

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