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Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

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Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#91

Post by smachiz »

opportune wrote: post #85
listenallyall wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are discounting the difficulty of getting typical consumers (not "high travel group of tech") to install a 3rd, 4th, 5th app to perform the same function that Uber and Lyft already do. And when you are in a hurry, you might check 2 apps, but will you check and compare 5?

Yeah, I got my parents to start using Uber. They are not very technologically literate and could definitely not be bothered to download a new app to save 10%.

But it isn't 10% - it's probably closer to 50%.

The car is $30-50k with a lifetime of what, 10 years?

The driver needs to earn $40k/yr.

The vast majority of the cost is the driver - insurance and fuel are next, ultimately followed by vehicle capex and maintenance.

Also don't underestimate the amount of local news coverage the driverless taxi will get - combined with the "there's no rude, smelly person driving me".

Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#92

Post by ChefboyOG »

epistasis wrote: post #80
untog wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> did the company and the investors ever actually believe that the robotaxi stuff was even close to viable IMO, absolutely. The hype for self driving cars a few years ago was massive . I forget who, but a prominent SV investor offered to make a bet with someone that self-driving taxis would be on the road in five years. There was plenty of it in HN, too. That's the investors. Did Travis think so too? The insane amoun…

I think all the self-driving cars hysteria was just momentum from the hype of deep learning advances. I remember thinking about the idea of self driving cars within 10 years, "this seems crazy, but I guess I've been wrong before...". A few years later it seems even crazier. But I've also been wronger than that... There were (are?) people talking about Artificial General Intelligence being just around the corner, whic…

I work in machine learning, and I've noticed a particular dynamic in how people treat predictions like this.

In general, when there is a breakthrough in a field of research—like what deep learning went through recently—there is a gold rush of new projects that push the boundaries.

A certain category of people look at these new startups, and project that momentum out to some extremely distant problem (like AGI or fully autonomous vehicles), without understanding if this field of research necessarily leads to solutions to those problems, at least in linear fashion.

Then there is another category of person who looks at those predictions and dismisses the entire field as hype, ignoring the surge of valuable projects that kicked it all off.

Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#93

Post by djannzjkzxn »

paulcole wrote: post #79
djannzjkzxn wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The financial benefit seems pretty clear, conditional on self-driving tech working. The capital cost of the hardware would be amortized. Let’s say a driver costs $10/hour. If the self-driving car is active for 16 hours a day it saves you $58k a year in driver wages. Then over more years that number multiplies. It seems totally realistic for self driving tech to cost five figures per vehicle. With mass production the…

So instead of paying a bunch of people $10/hour, Uber is going to pony up front for a huge number of vehicles and the staff it takes to maintain them? Or are scads of private owners going to hand over their car to Uber to run as AI-taxis for $10/hr?

$10/hour is a rough estimate for the after expenses earnings for Uber drivers. The gross Uber pays is more like $16/hour so that’s the number to compare if you are going to look at Uber’s all-in cost to run a fleet. Using the 16 hours/day estimate it comes out to $93k a year of driver payments saved, which seems like it should easily pay for the purchase and maintenance of a car (especially if the car lasts multiple years). Uber has access to capital so they can handle the “up front” nature of the expense. Paying people to drive a car around all day is expensive and if Uber could avoid that they would have a better business.

Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#94

Post by paulcole »

djannzjkzxn wrote: post #93
paulcole wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So instead of paying a bunch of people $10/hour, Uber is going to pony up front for a huge number of vehicles and the staff it takes to maintain them? Or are scads of private owners going to hand over their car to Uber to run as AI-taxis for $10/hr?

$10/hour is a rough estimate for the after expenses earnings for Uber drivers. The gross Uber pays is more like $16/hour so that’s the number to compare if you are going to look at Uber’s all-in cost to run a fleet. Using the 16 hours/day estimate it comes out to $93k a year of driver payments saved, which seems like it should easily pay for the purchase and maintenance of a car (especially if the car lasts multiple…

Yeah, 16 hours of driving a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year for multiple years does seem reasonable for a car. Feeling like a fool for doubting Uber’s self-driving end game.

Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#95

Post by thebean11 »

lhorie wrote: post #88
baddox wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are certainly some overly optimistic timelines being promised by some people and companies, but "several decades" seems extremely pessimistic. There are self-driving cars driving all over San Francisco (and presumably other cities) with minimal human driver intervention. I'm sure they're not perfect, and they might not be as good as whatever human driving ability baseline will be needed for mainstream and regul…

Several decades ago, I was hearing about flying cars. The technology existed for years. Commercial flight is a thing too, but 20 years later we're still no closer to having flying cars. Why would self driving cars be different?

I don't know, why would any new technology be different? I feel like the similarities between flying cars and self driving cars are superficial.

Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#96

Post by Jommi »

windexh8er wrote: post #65
Jommi wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The consumers are in Ubers pocket. Wayne and Tesla will be smooching to be Uner's chosen one. Businesses are demand based, not supply based.

I'm not sure you're considering how fickle riders are. I work in a (what used to be) high travel group of tech. Most all of my peers and I are heavy rideshare users. Honestly, we don't care who the app owner is, but want the rides to be consistent and reliable. None of my peers is tied to Lyft or Uber, even with promotions and "status" gimmicks. If a ride can show up 3 minutes faster on Lyft - I'm taking that over Ub…

I worked directly in the space and I can tell you you're overestimating your "persona"s portion on the market. Also, why so you think that car is arriving faster for you on another app?

They're running more bonuses at timeframe, e.g. it's more costly.

The airline example is great. Because that's exactly the direction ridehailing is going. Just look at Uber rewards. At least with an airline you actually book weeks in advance. With ridehailing you're buying super close to the actual event.

Beieeve me, Uber has done one thing well and that's consumer ToM..

Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#97

Post by Ericson2314 »

jeffbee wrote: post #24
Ericson2314 wrote: post #4

I'd rather rent a bike or scooter right now than get in a stranger's car. I don't get it.

Yes, but how much will you pay? Bike rental like Jump or Lyft hasn't ever been profitable, nor should it be. It should be viewed by cities as a way to manage their street capacity, and like bus service, should not be expected to be internally profitable. This was the model of Motivate (Citibike, Bay Area Bike Share) before Lyft acquired them.

I agree completely to that principle.

I guess read what I wrote as for-profit car rental sounds stupider than for-profit bike rental in these times. Still a weird call for Uber which must lie to itself about the potential for profit.

Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#98

Post by agumonkey »

lhorie wrote: post #88
baddox wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are certainly some overly optimistic timelines being promised by some people and companies, but "several decades" seems extremely pessimistic. There are self-driving cars driving all over San Francisco (and presumably other cities) with minimal human driver intervention. I'm sure they're not perfect, and they might not be as good as whatever human driving ability baseline will be needed for mainstream and regul…

Several decades ago, I was hearing about flying cars. The technology existed for years. Commercial flight is a thing too, but 20 years later we're still no closer to having flying cars. Why would self driving cars be different?

The factors seems weighted very differently. Flying cars are even more dangerous than SDV (a flying ton near buildings ?). The technological soil of the era might be less nurturing than today.

Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#99

Post by warent »

SilasX wrote: post #52
warent wrote: post #44

Can anyone explain why Lyft is not experiencing the same pain? I've always used them over Uber (not an investor in either, just a customer) and now as much as ever Lyft just seems to be a smarter, more mature company.

I thought Lyft's pain was pretty similar. They had about the same percentage layoffs: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23020812 And reduced internship salaries: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23047687 Although from searching the recent news it does look like they've seen some good news as well, like a share price rally after the Q1 report: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23095844 So Lyft got hit hard,…

I missed these. Thank you!

Re: Uber loses $2.9B, offloads bike and scooter business

#100

Post by lmm »

xiaolingxiao wrote: post #8

Could someone w/ an understanding of accounting add to this report? Uber is "offloading" bike/scooter business to Lime, but also making an investment in Lime... is this just a way to hide losses? Essentially paying Lime to take the red off Uber's balance sheet, while maintaining an option in the micromobility market?

It doesn't offload their losses. It offloads their risk, since the Lime investment can't go below zero, but that's genuine and not just accounting (if Lime goes bankrupt, Uber is not on the hook for it). Buying and selling in stock is normal and legitimate, particularly in times like these where a valuation of Jump in terms of Lime shares is probably a lot more stable than a valuation of Jump in terms of cash.
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