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Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

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Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#91

Post by cs702 »

My key takeaway after reading this article is that I cannot blindly trust China's official figures.

NPR reports that "under its newest COVID-19 prevention guidelines, China does not include in its overall daily count for total and for new cases those who retest positive after being released from medical care. China also does not include asymptomatic cases in case counts" (emphasis mine).

One of the Wuhan doctors interviewed for this article told NPR that "I have no idea why the authorities choose not to count asymptomatic cases in the official case count. I am baffled."

All doctors and individuals in China who were interviewed for the article "requested anonymity when speaking with NPR because those who have challenged the government's handling of the outbreak have been detained."

--

See also: https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/mar/27/china-re-closes...

Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#92

Post by MikeAmelung »

scribu wrote: post #84
robocat wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think China is mostly telling the truth. Firstly, exports are hard to lie about. Order something from alibaba yourself, or here’s some graphs: https://www.plex.com/blogs/china-potential-model-for-post-co... Secondly, Trump would break that news if it were fact. Hiding 10’s of thousands of deaths and 100’s of thousands of very ill is extremely difficult in the modern world when relatives live overseas. Thirdly, I be…

Whoever's downvoting this comment, how do you refute the point that export numbers are hard to fake? It would collusion from all of China and all of the importing countries.

They looked at the numbers, said "Ah, fuck it, this ain't that bad." and resumed production? It's not like the factories are full of 70+ year-old workers.

Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#93

Post by snapetom »

ajross wrote: post #90
snapetom wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't think calling China a "global leader" despite their awful initial actions is praising China?

Not in the context presented, no. The article isn't talking about their "initial actions", it's talking about their international assistance work. China is absolutely a global leader in providing humanitarian assistance to other nations struct by COVID-19. In fact they're pretty much the only nation doing anything like this, at all. And historically, that was always one of the core roles played by America. So in pers…

> Not in the context presented, no.

You're contracting yourself and just being argumentative. The whole context is their international assistance work, and there is nothing but praise in that article. Meanwhile the article just brushes aside their initial deceit which greatly magnified the problem.

Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#94

Post by devy »

tehjoker wrote: post #60
AzzieElbab wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spain sent testkits back to China because they were unreliable

In the NYT article on Italy today, frontline medics were saying that clinical symptoms were anecdotally more reliable than the tests because there are too many false negatives. Not sure whose tests they're using but I've heard similar things about US PCR tests. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/...

Yep! CT scans and clinician's experience is more reliable than any tests for COVID-19 diagnostics (which should only serving as a definitive confirmation). This also why I believe human doctors are still unbeatable by AI

Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#95

Post by ajross »

snapetom wrote: post #93
ajross wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not in the context presented, no. The article isn't talking about their "initial actions", it's talking about their international assistance work. China is absolutely a global leader in providing humanitarian assistance to other nations struct by COVID-19. In fact they're pretty much the only nation doing anything like this, at all. And historically, that was always one of the core roles played by America. So in pers…

> Not in the context presented, no. You're contracting yourself and just being argumentative. The whole context is their international assistance work, and there is nothing but praise in that article. Meanwhile the article just brushes aside their initial deceit which greatly magnified the problem.

Are you saying that merely reporting on the fact that China is providing international assistance is... praise?

I genuinely thought you were talking about the tweet about the article being the praise. The article was just facts. Facts, to borrow a phrase, don't care about your feelings.

Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#96

Post by klmadfejno »

hprotagonist wrote: post #2

Couple of thoughts: - I think we need to know a LOT more about the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of every test that's being deployed right now. I am 100% willing to believe that "testing negative and then positive" means "you have a pretty low viral load and our tests suck more than we're willing to admit out loud right now". - I think we need to be very clear that there are two kinds of tests: "you have an…

Suppose you get the disease and develop antibodies for it. Your body is pretty darn good at fighting the virus and won't get sick from it easily. But, you're in a place with a huge viral load exposure.

Wouldn't that imply there should be some of the virus in your lungs? Test accuracy aside, is the definition of "positive" even clear?

Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#97

Post by gojomo »

hinkley wrote: post #56
gojomo wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect it's because this virus is optimized to enter cells that line the lungs/respiratory tract, then also sheds back that same way. Meanwhile, cells in, and along, the bloodstream aren't infected – and are most-trafficked by the body's immune response, including virus-destroying antibodies. (Why are rodents more prevalent in the walls/crawlspaces of a dwelling, rather than the hallways?)

But the lungs are full of blood, that's how we breath. So it's spreading mucosally or through connective tissue?

Sure, but if an initially-infected respiratory cell releases its "baby coronaviruses" out to the respiratory linings, away from the blood, they'll find lots more of the respiratory cell surfaces they're optimized to infect, and maybe get a ride out to other hosts on sputum.

To the extent an infected cell releases its "baby coronaviruses" into the blood stream, they find a hot, chemically active environment – which is already inhospitable to their continued survival – plus a relative dearth of the respiratory cell-walls they're optimized to enter, plus a growing number of hostile antibodies.

(I don't know if a coronavirus-hijacked cell can direct its fresh viruses one way or the other, but it'd probably prefer to do that if it could, and I can understand why viruses wouldn't persist long in blood compared to respiratory-membranes.)

The coronaviruses are definitely active in mucosal surfaces, and carried by mucus. I haven't seen anything about, nor do I think any activity is necessarily implied, in other connective tissues.

Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#98

Post by dmoy »

robocat wrote: post #71
rumanator wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have seen realistic assessments of the ultimate effectiveness I'm afraid we only see the chinese government's report and data on how the epidemic is spreading within China.

I think China is mostly telling the truth. Firstly, exports are hard to lie about. Order something from alibaba yourself, or here’s some graphs: https://www.plex.com/blogs/china-potential-model-for-post-co... Secondly, Trump would break that news if it were fact. Hiding 10’s of thousands of deaths and 100’s of thousands of very ill is extremely difficult in the modern world when relatives live overseas. Thirdly, I be…

> Thirdly, I believe that China can effectively enforce social barriers, restricting the spread of Covid19. It seems reasonable to believe they can control it, even though freer countries struggle.

This part is huge. When apartment complexes are already surrounded by walls with a couple gates, it's easier to control flow of people in and out. The infrastructure already in place (yes I know, hardy har har, chinese building walls, ok) actually helps a lot.

We've got family back on mainland who can't get in and out of their apartment complex without getting their temperature taken (both directions) and playing 20 questions with the guards about where they're going.

Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#99

Post by nico_h »

ceejayoz wrote: post #5
nico_h wrote: post #3

Favorite line from the article: "In terms of those who retested positive, the official party line is that they have not been proven to be infectious. That is not the same as saying they are not infectious," one of the Wuhan doctors who tested positive twice told NPR [...] "If they really are not infectious," the doctor said, "then there would be no need to take them back to the hospitals again." So why are the asympt…

"Not proven to be infectious" and "proven to not be infectious" aren't the same thing. Quarantine/observation is warranted for the first.

Well if you know they are infected, and are worried they might be infectious, _why not count them_ after all they _are_ occupying a bed.

Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive

#100

Post by gentleman11 »

wwweston wrote: post #73
snapetom wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While social media has been more critical depending on the source, the mainstream media has definitely been carrying the water for China. https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/124324375891486310... I think it's been interesting wave. When the cases first started, China got blasted. As it hit the US, Administration political opponents have criticized the US response, but many have gone to the point of praising Chi…

If China did in fact ship emergency medical supplies to Italy, that's a gesture worth recognizing and praising. "Carrying water" is a weird way of characterizing that recognition. China also deserves criticism; its initial response was dysfunctional in some ways (albeit somewhat different ways than the United States dysfunctional response). Fortunately, as you say, it's been blasted in some discussion. But recognitio…

> If China did in fact ship emergency medical supplies to Italy, that's a gesture worth recognizing and praising.

Fully agreed on that particular point, that is commendable

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