Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers • Hacker News Board

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#91

Post by pavelrub » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:43 PM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #77

ZhuanXia wrote: post #7

The shameful lies about masks not working for civilians will kill thousands. Evidence based medicine (over the modern Bayesian Science-based medicine) has paralyzed our health officials from making common sense calls off priors. Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective. The official response should be to make some form of improvised mask required when out of home, and ration regular mask for health care worke…

The argument is usually that it has limited effect when it comes to protecting the wearer . Simpler masks or home made masks can probably prevent transmission somewhat from the wearer by reducing the reach of droplets. The argument against masks is based on 1) that people want them to protect themselves 2) that there aren’t nearly enough masks to do so. So as I understand it, the authorities that say “don’t wear a ma…

I haven't seen any evidence supporting the argument that they do not protect the wearer. The argument seems to be that they aren't 100% effective at that, and therefore shouldn't be used for those purposes, which doesn't make any sense. Even 20% reduction in the amount of incoming droplets is significant - both for protecting the wearer, and for reducing R0.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#92

Post by libertine » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:45 PM UTC

jtdev wrote: post #4

Can we all agree that outsourcing the production of critical medical supplies to China over recent decades was a bad idea? I understand the “golden arches” theory, and the intent if globalism, but I feel that COVID19 has revealed what a short sighted, deeply flawed view the globalists have.

Or maybe shouldn't there be emergency plans that had all the steps to remodel current production lines in the country to adjust to production of medical supplies?

Like, in China, factories that made bedding products are re engineered to make masks, suits, etc.

These are exceptional conditions, so if you had the protocols in place (blue prints, machine configurations, assembly line structure, briefings for management, briefing and courses for factory workers), maybe it was doable.

And maybe it would be of low maintenance, just when new machines were introduced, you'd release a new document to configure that machine.

The main problem would be raw material, but again, maybe with planning and study new materials and combinations could be used (even if not perfect).

This would be only a problem for countries with little to no industry, but that's where organizations like the EU should come into play.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#93

Post by markbnj » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:50 PM UTC

bamboozled wrote: post #2

“Health-care facilities don’t remotely have the supplies that would allow staff members to see every patient with all that gear on.“ As the article states, China had that ability. If that statement is true, It’s amazing to me that this is something China can do and not the U.S.A. The country that put man on the moon not even a century ago! Incredible. I feel like there are a lot of acquisitions lately that go on abou…

> If that statement is true, It’s amazing to me that this is something China can do and not the U.S.A. The country that put man on the moon not even a century ago!

My wife is an R.N. and is the clinical care coordinator on a cardiac critical care unit in northern NJ that has been converted to a negative pressure covid-19 unit. They currently have two positives and several suspected under treatment. They do not have enough PPE gear to see every suspected patient using full protection, i.e. gown, goggles, N95 mask, gloves, etc. This is a fact that bothered me much more than her. It's possible to prevent transmission to health care workers without full PPE on every case. See for reference this article currently linked on HN front page: https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/keeping-the-coronav.... Naturally I still wish she was wrapped head to toe in antiviral something every time she goes near the place, but my fears are those of a layperson and I have to trust her professional judgement.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#94

Post by brigandish » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:50 PM UTC

MikeAmelung wrote: post #76

taeric wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why? I have pushed my air quality hypothesis. What other reasons are there. And you can't just claim social distancing. Unless they have shut down their trains, where people are literally packed in, that just doesn't fly. (So, have they?)

Couple of possibilities I've been thinking about: The virus has been in Italy for a lot longer than they think, and they get close to each other/have actual contact a lot (I don't know if that's actually true, I've never been to Italy) Maybe they mostly have a particular mutation that is more deadly/infectious

Don't discount the possibility that figures are being massaged in various ways. One is the obvious lack of widespread testing. Another is the reports of people with symptoms being turned away. Then there are the kodokushi[0] numbers which are a clue to how the government already deals with uncomfortable mortality figures - let alone those kudokushi who may die because of the virus - and a over a million deaths a year (I don't know the monthly totals) in which to hide a few hundred (initially) deaths, especially while still in flu season.

In short, I trust the figures here about one step more than ones coming out of China.

[0] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-agi...

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#95

Post by taeric » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:53 PM UTC

brigandish wrote: post #88

taeric wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does Japan? Last I saw, they had an inexplicably low curve. Despite not really testing or doing other measures.

Well, I live in Japan and went out properly today for the first time in days, and I can tell you that the R0 is above 1 by eye simply by the way people are behaving. Social distancing isn't happening much at all, and unless the population is magically becoming immune then there's no way R0 is less than 1. The real questions are whether that will translate into symptomatic and serious cases, and when.

Right. My hypothesis has been that the virus is showing in all places. Something is marking the places with serious cases.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#96

Post by brigandish » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:54 PM UTC

harikb wrote: post #14

brigandish wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How widespread is widespread? Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan… these are countries in which people wear masks in large numbers on a normal day. They all still have an R0 above 1.

Those countries also have higher population densities and public transport usage than some of the western countries. How can you say the mask isn’t helping?

> How can you say the mask isn’t helping?

I didn't but I also didn't make the claim that they would help so I suggest we start by getting claimants to back up their claims before we get anyone checking claims to prove negatives.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#97

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:57 PM UTC

chmod775 wrote: post #80

ravenstine wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respectfully, I wish people would stop popping into discussions about coronavirus to say " Actually, ... ". Most educated people know that viruses aren't alive in the traditional sense. People who aren't as educated simply don't care, and I don't blame them. Using the more scientifically precise term helps nobody, except scientists, in this situation. Should software engineers stop using the word "kill" in POSIX-land…

> Respectfully, I wish people would stop popping into discussions about coronavirus to say "Actually, ...". I answered his question while also correcting a minor mistake. Also I'm not sure what you're quoting there. > Most educated people know that viruses aren't alive in the traditional sense. People who aren't as educated simply don't care, and I don't blame them. Are you trying to insult your grandparent? Most peo…

[deleted]

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#98

Post by nikofeyn » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:58 PM UTC

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #40

ZhuanXia wrote: post #15

China has half the world’s manufacturing ability, a civil service selected strongly for cognitive ability, a much more diligent and capable people, and a large population. Not to mention experience in pandemics of this type. China will become zeroth world shortly. We will have to get used to them surpassing us.

As long as they’re operating concentration camps, it’s the duty of the rest of the free world to oppose them. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-concentrationca...

that's a poor argument. for one, the u.s. has concentration camps as well, just not to that scale. secondly, if one just focuses on these types of arguments, then you ignore all the ways that china is positively surpassing the u.s. their ability to handle infrastructure and crisis like this greatly surpasses the u.s. and other countries. they are logistics and operations experts. the u.s. is flailing about without any shared direction whatsoever.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#99

Post by taeric » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:00 PM UTC

MikeAmelung wrote: post #76

taeric wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why? I have pushed my air quality hypothesis. What other reasons are there. And you can't just claim social distancing. Unless they have shut down their trains, where people are literally packed in, that just doesn't fly. (So, have they?)

Couple of possibilities I've been thinking about: The virus has been in Italy for a lot longer than they think, and they get close to each other/have actual contact a lot (I don't know if that's actually true, I've never been to Italy) Maybe they mostly have a particular mutation that is more deadly/infectious

Relying on a particular mutation seems less plausible than difference in air quality exposure that can be measured today.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#100

Post by nikofeyn » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:05 PM UTC

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #84

hatenberg wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This mindset and the ideological blinders it introduces is a huge problem. When china went aggressive on the virus people looked at it as draconian measures because of the ideological lens, not looking further to see the measures were absolutely necessary by scientific fact. When Singapore started to spring into action, the western press was musing about election posturing all the while nobody prepared. Ideology kill…

> When china went aggressive on the virus people looked at it as draconian measures because of the ideological lens, not looking further to see the measures were absolutely necessary by scientific fact. None of this would have been necessary if the doctors reporting the Wuhan virus weren’t killed for presenting bad news. There’s clear evidence that the Chinese waited far too long to start acting and alerting others.…

and the u.s. is not intentionally misleading the people right now when it's clearly in front of us? the u.s. government is blatantly lying and even profiting off of the virus.

and your comment about china continuing to manipulate numbers is poor speculation on your part. i am unable to find the article at the moment, but the WHO representative who was there was asked that question, and he stated that there was no reason he saw that numbers were being manipulated. he stated that once the response ramped up, that they were taking it very seriously and were quite methodical.