Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Open Source Ventilator Project

opensourceventilator.ie

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 145 posts

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#91

Post by easytiger »

joe_the_user wrote: post #86
chrisseaton wrote: post #3

> 15-20% of infected people require hospitalization for respiratory problems This is wrong - it's 15-20% of identified , diagnosed and subsequently monitored infected people, isn't it? I thought there was a mass of unidentified infected people, and even basically diagnosed but told to just deal with it at home with no further contact as they're low risk and minimal symptoms, and (obviously) 0% of these groups are goi…

You are wrong according to the WHO investigation of the events in China.[1] You are wrong according to the statistics that came out of Korea - if there was an invisible group of asymptomatic, Korea's infection rate couldn't have been controlled. [2] This destructive belief has persisted for a while because it made sense for various flu epidemic and gave the comforting idea most infections would be harmless. But is no…

> There's reason to think Korea found most if not all infection.

This is beyond ridiculous and you have no basis for making that assertion. As of last Saturday, In South Korea, as of the weekend only 248,000 people out of a population of 50,000,000, with 8,086 +ve cases and 72 deaths.

There is significant evidence that not only are most cases mild, but often asymptomatic.

https://www.sanitainformazione.it/salute/scovare-i-positivi-...

In English:

https://mobile.twitter.com/andreamatranga/status/12397748625...

> According to Crisanti, the director of the virology lab of U Padua, as little as 10% of #COVID2019 carriers show any symptoms at all. He sampled repeatedly the entire 3k+ population of Vo ', one of the initial clusters.

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/15/first-results-of-genera...

> 700 have been tested. Kári says that about half of those who tested positive have shown no symptoms, and the other half show symptoms have having a regular cold.

https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/...

> "The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence Sergio Romagnani writes

> But is now with us at scale and all the evidence points to a rough 20%, 1-in-5 hospitalization rate [3].

No. It doesn't. That link doesn't say why they were hospitalised. In America if your insurance is good enough you can be referred for little to no reason.

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#92

Post by easytiger »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #83
chrisseaton wrote: post #3

> 15-20% of infected people require hospitalization for respiratory problems This is wrong - it's 15-20% of identified , diagnosed and subsequently monitored infected people, isn't it? I thought there was a mass of unidentified infected people, and even basically diagnosed but told to just deal with it at home with no further contact as they're low risk and minimal symptoms, and (obviously) 0% of these groups are goi…

Got to love hackernews, in a discussion of tools to fight global pandemic, the top comment nitpicks an number that everyone knows is imprecise, and offers nothing constructive.

It's not nitpicking to point out the statistic is wrong by an order of magnitude

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#93

Post by easytiger »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #50
arcticbull wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fine, but we absolutely do know for an absolute fact that -- it is not true 15-20% of people with nCoV-19 need a ventilator. We don't know what the number is but we 100% with absolute certainty know it is not 15-20%. If we acquiesce to 70% of the US getting nCoV-19 as the epidemiologists are suggesting that would require 50 million ventilators. There are about 70,000 in the US. So we'd need almost 1000X as many venti…

Well in China they seem to have forced everyone to stay home? The UK appears to have decided allowing 500,000 of us to die was a bad idea and we're now on "lockdown". At least everyone is _advised_ to socially distance, because - it seems - then businesses can still fire people for not turning up to work, and insurers can avoid paying out ("you chose to stop the event, you weren't obliged to"). I'm not sure we can te…

I can probably derive everything you believe from your flagrant mischaracterisation of the UKs policies.

It might help if you don't get all your news from Twitter

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#94

Post by easytiger »

lern_too_spel wrote: post #82
arcticbull wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well in China they seem to have forced everyone to stay home? Well, it's China. > The UK appears to have decided allowing 500,000 of us to die was a bad idea and we're now on "lockdown". 500,000 people dying wasn't going to happen. Korea's death rate is closer to 0.4%, almost entirely the older folks who were to be quarantined at home during this process anyways. Korea's death rate for under-40's is 0-0.1%, so at w…

Where are you getting this 0.4% number from? Korea is testing extensively, so CFR is very close to IFR, and CFR is above 1%.

No it isn't. If you are asking someone where they get numbers from them write some incorrect numbers in the pursuit of whatever agenda is not a good look.

As of Monday,

- 274,504 people tested

- 8,400 cases

- 81 deaths

- 0.96% CFR

> so CFR is very close to IFR

On what basis do you make that statement. It's clearly indefensible

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronav...

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#95

Post by [deleted] »

chrisseaton wrote: post #40
ldng wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're absolutely right. But does it really matter ? A lot more ventilator are going to be needed, not in % but in hard cold real absolute number. Isn't that more important ?

> But does it really matter ? Yes - I think we should challenge misleading information wherever we see it in this situation. Fighting panic is part of the problem and bad numbers cause panic. I mean, if we don't really care that the numbers aren't accurate because it's more important to emphasise why the project is important, we might as well go all the way and say 99% of people need a ventilator and really sell the…

[deleted]

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#96

Post by joe_the_user »

easytiger wrote: post #91
joe_the_user wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are wrong according to the WHO investigation of the events in China.[1] You are wrong according to the statistics that came out of Korea - if there was an invisible group of asymptomatic, Korea's infection rate couldn't have been controlled. [2] This destructive belief has persisted for a while because it made sense for various flu epidemic and gave the comforting idea most infections would be harmless. But is no…

> There's reason to think Korea found most if not all infection. This is beyond ridiculous and you have no basis for making that assertion. As of last Saturday, In South Korea, as of the weekend only 248,000 people out of a population of 50,000,000, with 8,086 +ve cases and 72 deaths. There is significant evidence that not only are most cases mild, but often asymptomatic. https://www.sanitainformazione.it/salute/scov…

The one credible source among your links talks about surveying a population and seeing of those testing positive for Covid are asymptomatic or have cold symptoms.

But this finding is not extrapolated to mean that the vast majority won't require hospitalization. There's a reason. When the virus is growing exponentially, most people have just gotten the virus and haven't gone the 2-3 weeks typical for becoming so sick that you require hospitalization. Exponential growth means 3-week old cases are rare. A weekly doubling time 1/16 of the cases of the cases are three weeks old. If 1/5 of those cases require hospitalization eventually, you will wind-up with only 1/80 of those cases seeming to require hospitalization if you're just taking a survey.

Some of my references are extrapolating things (correctly) but others are citing recognized authorities. Your entire argument is basically incorrect extrapolation based on not taking into account exponential growth.

This article widely read article summarizes the quandary we're in and how to extrapolate the current data.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

People need to read it and stop with the destructive misinformation.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#97

Post by X6S1x6Okd1st »

gpm wrote: post #81
newman314 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Panic buying also usually implies long lines of people waiting in close proximity to each other leading to additional vectors of potential infection. So yeah, no.

I'd rather long lines today when very few people are infected, than having lines tomorrow when many people are infected. We can sacrifice a little R0 when the base population of infected is small to get a smaller R0 when the base population is large.

R0 doesn't change. R changes.

basic reproductive number vs effective reproductive number

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#98

Post by cakeface »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #76
l_davis wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With all the memes flying around, it is tough to sort out what is believable or not. But coughing is apparently part of recognized therapy for CF - see https://www.cff.org/Life-With-CF/Treatments-and-Therapies/Ai... - so if you have fluid in your lung from covid 19, perhaps airway clearance techniques could help?

A running joke in the CF community is "Excuse me. It's time to go beat my (spouse/child)." Manually palpating the chest to loosen phlegm to help people with CF cough it up is also a standard treatment for the condition.

OK, can I just take a moment to say that cystic fibrosis sounds absolutely awful and I have a newfound horror of the disease coupled with a whole lot of sympathy for you and others who are living with it.

You are heard. I wish you only the best and I am sorry that you and others have experienced what you have.

One of the things that I am trying to maintain in the face of covid-19 is perspective. Generally this has meant that yes, something awful is happening, but that doesn't invalidate the wonderful things also happening and it's OK for me to feel joy. Now I also have some perspective that there are other absolutely horrible things and we should not minimize those either.

Sending you and yours my best hope and love.

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#99

Post by DoreenMichele »

cakeface wrote: post #98
DoreenMichele wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A running joke in the CF community is "Excuse me. It's time to go beat my (spouse/child)." Manually palpating the chest to loosen phlegm to help people with CF cough it up is also a standard treatment for the condition.

OK, can I just take a moment to say that cystic fibrosis sounds absolutely awful and I have a newfound horror of the disease coupled with a whole lot of sympathy for you and others who are living with it. You are heard. I wish you only the best and I am sorry that you and others have experienced what you have. One of the things that I am trying to maintain in the face of covid-19 is perspective. Generally this has me…

Yes, it's classified as a Dread Disease because of what it does to your entire life, not just your health and body.

Thank you for your kind words and good intentions.

But please note that there are good things in my life as well. The past decade or two have been pretty darn hard, but it's not all downside.

And because I have CF, I already do remote work and live like a germaphobe. So the pandemic is, so far, kind of an annoying inconvenience. And I'm trying to figure out how to provide solutions, such as:

https://writepay.blogspot.com/2020/03/textbroker-and-covid19... (which I posted to HN and it got no traction)

And: https://stoptouchingyourface.blogspot.com/

In my experience, people feeling sorry for me doesn't pay my bills, doesn't get me any real respect, doesn't get my writing taken seriously or get me traction, etc.

If you are really sorry for what I have been through, then help me make all that suffering mean something. Help me get the word out and get some traction and make a difference.

Turn all those years of suffering into a learning opportunity for the world, not one more reason for everyone on the planet to hate me, treat me like I'm pathetic and generally ignore me and the things I have to say.

Make my pain make a positive difference in the world instead of just being a private burden.

Re: Open Source Ventilator Project

#100

Post by easytiger »

joe_the_user wrote: post #96
easytiger wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's reason to think Korea found most if not all infection. This is beyond ridiculous and you have no basis for making that assertion. As of last Saturday, In South Korea, as of the weekend only 248,000 people out of a population of 50,000,000, with 8,086 +ve cases and 72 deaths. There is significant evidence that not only are most cases mild, but often asymptomatic. https://www.sanitainformazione.it/salute/scov…

The one credible source among your links talks about surveying a population and seeing of those testing positive for Covid are asymptomatic or have cold symptoms. But this finding is not extrapolated to mean that the vast majority won't require hospitalization. There's a reason. When the virus is growing exponentially, most people have just gotten the virus and haven't gone the 2-3 weeks typical for becoming so sick…

> If 1/5 of those cases require hospitalization eventually

They won't, they don't, and you have no basis for making that claim. I don't know what your agenda is here but it is entirely clear you have no desire to honestly engage regarding the facts. Certainly a complete misreading, at best, of data presented.

It clearly deals with the symptoms during the while life cycle of the disease.

What precisely is your goal with this misinformation?

Post reply on HN