I'm retired and mostly not in the market. I won't invest in the market while it is overpriced. With such low interest rates, what is a safe investment?
BTC and ETH is worth a few % of your portfolio depending on your risk tolerance. :)
Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
91–100 of 499 posts
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#92In these comments: hopeful wishing of the demise of the US economy.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#93From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…
The incubation period is not 25-30 days. The mean incubation period is 5-6 days, range 1-14 days.
Source: Page 12, paragraph 2. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'll bite. How can you tell?
The entire world is about to have a supply chain disruption that you can't stoke into recovery using central bank policy. The Fed rarely lowers interest rates without notice. They're spooked.
> The Fed rarely lowers interest rates without notice.
Just to play devil's advocate, the world also rarely has an epidemic of this magnitude...
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#95This will further increase housing prices, no? How much more unobtainable for the average American could they possibly get? I suppose negative interest rates will let us know shortly!
This reduces the interest on your mortgage
If you already own a home. Otherwise housing is just more expensive. Lower interest rates mean houses can be sold at higher prices for exactly the reason you gave.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#963-2-1, bull market returns. (I hope)
Rate cut was already priced in yesterday. CME's FedWatch already had really high odds for this exact cut.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#97From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…
" ... I'm still slightly bearish on the whole situation due to the combination of the virus' absurdly high infection rate[0] and its ridiculous ~25-30 day incubation period ..."
You're right to highlight those aspects of the virus and I find them noteworthy as well.
However, the statistics I am most interested in is mortality rate and rate of asymptomatic infections.
I note with interest that among the 700+ infected on the cruise ship, there were 6 deaths as of yesterday - and this is among a relatively geriatric population. So, perhaps we see a mortality rate of <1% among a greater risk population.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#98I'm retired and mostly not in the market. I won't invest in the market while it is overpriced. With such low interest rates, what is a safe investment?
The business cycle has been on the down turn for a few months now (though folks are just now beginning to notice it). Historically, Treasuries, long-term GOV'T bonds, and gold perform well during this part of the cycle. If you must have equities, utilities and REITs perform well but only in relation to other S&P stocks.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#99For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…
What would be the endgame here?
A long-lived Nikkei-style "bull run."
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#100From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…
> given that fiscal policy can't really affect the real economy i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-19, no amount of fiscal stimulus can make up for the time / productivity losses
The fact that you don't know the difference between fiscal and monetary policy, FYI changing interest rates is monetary policy, makes me strongly doubt that you know what you're talking about.