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MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

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Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#91
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> where the presence of the COVD-19 is nil or extremely low I don't think this is known or knowable at the moment. Hence the worry. You are right that airports are probably a greater risk. Perhaps they should be closed. On the other hand, that would be far more disruptive. As for basic hygiene, yes, we all should. At the same time, we all know that a significant fraction of the population can't or won't do this. Edit…

Yep, keep seeing how people use their freshly washed hand to pull open a door. It only takes one person leaving without washing their hands for the irony to be apparent.

This is one primary reason why I'm not a fan of the hit air blowers to dry hands (rather than paper towels).

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#92
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It makes sense total sense to compare, it's another respiratory virus, from a family of viruses already known. We must not reinvent the wheel when we know the dynamics of these viruses and the countermeasures to take. The key metric that determines whether COVID-19 can establish and generate a sustained outbreak is it's ability to reproduce, "R", which represents the average number of individuals to which each transm…

This is outdated information. Most newer studies put R0 >3 (e.g. [1]) and there are many well documentated cases outside of China now which confirm at least partial presymptomatic transmission (German cluster, Signapore Conference, British prisoners). [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675v...

This paper suggest even a bigger R0, I'm still going through the details.

[1]: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v...

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#93
post #91
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, keep seeing how people use their freshly washed hand to pull open a door. It only takes one person leaving without washing their hands for the irony to be apparent.

This is one primary reason why I'm not a fan of the hit air blowers to dry hands (rather than paper towels).

Apparently they're also good for blowing bacteria around the room. But at least we're saving the planet. Hooray.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#94
post #9

It doesn't make sense from a medical point of view. China, and specifically Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, suffer an epidemic that they are trying to control with titanic efforts. 99% of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, today more than 40,000 with a thousand deaths, have been registered in China. Of them, almost 70% in Hubei. Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (inclu…

I think people are worried about the unknown unknowns. IIUC, it's infectious for a considerable period of time (one or two weeks) before the infected person becomes systematic. Plus, it's possible that some infectious persons never develop symptoms. Also, the case count is still in exponential growth mode. Plus, information coming out of China might be incomplete. No idea whether the conference should be cancelled, b…

Also, maybe MWC just isn't interesting enough to be worth it?

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#95
Huawei is the reason why this was cancelled. Huawei has MWC as the big show up/party/global event of the year. Any excuse is good. Huawei spend Millions in this event, more than anybody else

Recap of screwing Huawei history: Daughter of President jailed for business with Iran, baning their products ( network infrastructure, google apps in devices...), MWC cancelation....

🧐

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#97
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China only had 144 flu-caused deaths in an entire year ( https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml ), meaning the Wuhan virus has already killed 7.8 times as many people as the flu kills in an entire year throughout China.

Hilarious, your source is an article that's criticizing China's statistical methods on flu deaths reporting. From your own source: "The statistical methods used by the Chinese CDC should be revised, as deaths from pneumonia caused by the flu, for example, are not counted, the observer said." If you ignore death by pneumonia, the deaths for coronavirus are very low too. "An analysis led by Chinese scientists published…

> Hilarious, your source is an article that's criticizing China's statistical methods on flu deaths reporting.

That's literally the point. If the U.S. has 330M people and 30k flu deaths per year, then all else being equal one would expect that what China reports as 144 deaths is really 120,000. Which means that if Corona virus has already killed 7.8 times as many people who have died of the flu (per China's reporting), one would expect that it's really killed 936,000.

Obviously that's very simplistic, but that's basically why people are worried -- no one knows what the real numbers out of China are, so that kind of back-of-the-napkin math is about the best we can do right now.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#98
post #9

It doesn't make sense from a medical point of view. China, and specifically Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, suffer an epidemic that they are trying to control with titanic efforts. 99% of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, today more than 40,000 with a thousand deaths, have been registered in China. Of them, almost 70% in Hubei. Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (inclu…

For flu, each sick person infects 1 person. So Ro is 1. This means no quarantine needed. But for covid-19 estimated Ro is around 2.5. So containing this virus requires quarantine. Also this is a novel virus which means this strain is new and may be unpredictable. Mutations may occur. We even not sure about source of the virus. If it spreads all over the world it could logarithmicly grow in number. Especially for unde…

> for covid-19 estimated Ro is around 2.5

Los Alamos study today suggests R0 is between 4.7 and 6.6:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v...

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#99
post #9

It doesn't make sense from a medical point of view. China, and specifically Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, suffer an epidemic that they are trying to control with titanic efforts. 99% of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, today more than 40,000 with a thousand deaths, have been registered in China. Of them, almost 70% in Hubei. Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (inclu…

The newspapers of the time also dubbed the Spanish flu: just a familiar grip we've seen time and time again.

China desperately wants to save face, at the cost of lives. They rejected help from the U.S. CDC as to not appear weak. They already thought they had it under control, before locking down over 50 million people and damaging their economy.

People at risk for the flu can get a flu shot. This disease kills the healthy and average aged. And we all have family members at increased risk.

Even a 2% mortality rate is absolutely horrific. Would you play Russian roulette with those chances? If 60% percent of the world gets infected we are talking many many millions of dead.

How are you going to track contacts, when someone working in a brothel gets it, or someone preparing food in a McDonald's? What if someone takes the virus back to India or Africa?

With 20% needing intensive care, even modern European countries will suffer badly. There simply are not enough beds available, even in the bigger cities.

Mortality is a red herring when you do not count the people still hospitalized after months! Look at the tiny amount of recovered people.

Despite their titanic and gruesome methods to contain it, China has failed. Imagine such an effort in Europe, where people gladly will walk away from quarantine and can not be cowered into compliance or snitching on their coughing neighbors.

We simply do not know enough about morbesity and mortality to say we overreact. Better safe than sorry when uncertainty abound.

Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns

#100

I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.

There's a theory out there that traders think the Sanders win(s) mean that Trump will end up winning in the fall, and that that will keep business conditions friendly.

That has a certain ring of plausibility, though I'm skeptical of all explanations of market behavior.

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