Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#91

Post by _ea1k » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:28 PM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #47

_ea1k wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think so too, and I think they know that. It sounds like they are "only" planning to ramp US production from the current rate of ~400k total units per year to just over 500k per year. Of course, with China coming online, that still leaves a net increase. It sounds like they may have backed away from some of the more extreme high end projections for the Y. It looks like worldwide production may double within 1-2 yea…

According to their own figures, they have capacity to produce 650K, but only project 500K deliveries next year. Why is that?

They appear to be giving conservative figures this time around.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#92

Post by adventured » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:28 PM UTC

csomar wrote: post #66

slg wrote: post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

People shorted the stock expecting the company and Elon will go under. They didn't go under and this Q4 despite not being spectacular in any number is "beating the market expectations" because the market expected the company not to continue operations.

> because the market expected the company not to continue operations.

The market did not expect the company to cease operations and that was particularly not the expectations baked into this quarterly result (the bar Tesla had to jump over this quarter). A small group of agitator shorts pushed that narrative, which very little of the market actually believed as witnessed by Tesla's persistently outsized market value (pre rally it was still worth more than Ford).

Companies the size of Tesla don't trade with $40-$50 billion market caps when the market actually thinks they're going to stop operating soon.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#93

Post by qaq » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:28 PM UTC

tempsy wrote: post #34

no joke there are several people on /r/wallstreetbets that have turned a few hundred dollars into $1M+ in 2 months.

how is that tracked?

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#94

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:29 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #89

xkjkls wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that a bull thesis though? If the growth is that dependent on subsidies?

China is one of the biggest markets in the world and is committed to the rapid deployment of EVs. Unlike the US, those subsides will be around for a while. China also gave Tesla very favorable loan terms for the China Gigafactory.

> Unlike the US, those subsides will be around for a while.

Why? That doesn't seem like a stable investment thesis.

> China also gave Tesla very favorable loan terms for the China Gigafactory.

And if Tesla doesn't meet a number of targets the Chinese government takes complete ownership of the factory. They didn't give the good financing terms out of goodwill. Tesla entered an incredibly risky proposition with its Chinese factory.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#95

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

m0zg wrote: post #80

xkjkls wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think investment thesis based on the body language of the CEO are great ways to place your money.

Given that if this particular CEO were to, like, physically die (or even just throw in the towel) _Tesla_ would immediately die, I challenge this view of the situation. Even in its current, more stable state, this is a good signal that things are going well - this is not something most people can fake, certainly not people "on the spectrum" like Elon.

I would never invest in any company which the bus factor is 1.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#96

Post by heisenbergs » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

slg wrote: post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

simple back of the envelope calculation: in 3 years time, they will have 3 giga factories (+1 in upstate new york), each of which should be scale to 500k cars. at an average resale price of $50k (might be a little lower, but let's keep it simple), that's $75B in revenue. at a 10% profit margin, that's $7.5B profit. let's presume a 20x factor as a growth stock, you have an evaluation of $150B, which it's currently trending to.

This is excluding any other growth opportunities (self driving, solar, battery storage, drive train). just plain car sales...

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#97

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

socceroos wrote: post #56

xkjkls wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to their own figures, they have capacity to produce 650K, but only project 500K deliveries next year. Why is that?

Error margin

That's quite an error margin for a $100 billion company.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#98

Post by mehrdada » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #55

manmal wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, Ys are more expensive, meaning an increased bottomline if they really displace 3s.

Increasing the top line, not necessarily bottom line. There is nothing to indicate that Ys have better margins than 3s.

There's some evidence: pretty much same platform as 3 should imply roughly the same cost structure for the Y. That+higher price implies higher margin. It would be akin to Performance Model 3 in that sense.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#99

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:31 PM UTC

_ea1k wrote: post #91

xkjkls wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to their own figures, they have capacity to produce 650K, but only project 500K deliveries next year. Why is that?

They appear to be giving conservative figures this time around.

On which? Production or delivery?

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#100

Post by tempsy » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 10:31 PM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #90

tempsy wrote: post #34

no joke there are several people on /r/wallstreetbets that have turned a few hundred dollars into $1M+ in 2 months.

There are also several people I know who have done so at a craps table. That doesn't make it a sustainable or recommendable activity.

I call BS. There's no casino game outside of a slot machine that someone could play that could turn a few hundred dollars into $1M in a gambling session.

This difference you're missing is the upside is asymmetric with options. Your losses are capped but your gains are essentially unlimited. In a typical casino game the house edge is >50%. If you're turning $500 into $1M at a blackjack or craps table you're cheating.